Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/10/2015

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, September 10, 2015

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If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/24/2015

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned below its long term trend line (red) by -2.03% after having generated a “Sell” signal as of 8/24/2015, which applies to all “broadly diversified domestic equity ETFs/Mutual Funds.”

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Equities Continue To Play The Balancing Act

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks rebounded a bit today after Wednesday’s wild ride that ended on a down note. Everyone is bracing for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates and the vibes are still wait-and-see.

The Fed will meet for two days on Sept. 16-17, which could result in the first interest rate hike in almost a decade. Low rates, of course, have been cited as a key driver of the big stock market rally over the past 6 years. Investors globally have been biting their nails in anticipation of the potential rate hike, but it has continually been delayed over and over again. Only time will tell if and when the rate hike will take place. My best guess is that they will delay again…

In the auto world, we heard that Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is recalling nearly 1.7 million recent-model Ram pickups to check or repair wiring harnesses, airbags and steering components that may be faulty. The largest of the three recalls announced today involves an estimated 1.1 million pickups sold in North America that may have steering-wheel wiring harnesses that wear because of contact with a spring and could inadvertently set off the truck’s airbag.

And in oil news, oil prices pared some of their gains today after a reported increase of 2.6 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended Sept. 4. However, energy traders it seems still await further indications on the supply-demand balance in U.S. markets. A week earlier, U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 4.7 million barrels, significantly above expectations for a build of 700,000. At 455.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight followed this week’s roller-coaster ride and closed higher as Healthcare (XLV) took the lead with +0.96%. Lagging behind was the Select Dividend ETF with +0.15%.

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Early Rally Fades And Falls

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

An early rally on Wall Street faded as stocks gave back all of their gains and fell hard — with the Dow plunging more than 200 points as it finished on the losing end of a 411-point swing. Stocks initially surged at the open and followed a major move higher in Japan, where Tokyo stocks had their biggest one-day percentage gain since 2008.

The swing came back to us here in the U.S. when we received a report that showed job openings in the U.S. hit a record high in July. The jobs report suggests that a tightening in the labor market, but at the same time raised concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week.

All the news in tech today centered on Apple’s (AAPL) expo. In a two-hour press event that made numerous nods to the enterprise market and the benefits of viewing video and game content on bigger digital displays, Apple stressed the bottom line. Essentially stating that it has every intention of milking the iPhone juggernaut for the foreseeable future. Apple unveiled new iPhones that have a ‘force-touch’ technology and pitched their re-imagined iPad, which was vouched for by a Microsoft executive onstage.

It was a reversal from yesterday as the roller-coaster ride continued pulling all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight down a slippery slope. Showing the most bearish momentum was Consumer Staples (XLP) with -1.64% while the Discretionaries (XLY) held up best by losing only -1.05%.

We remain in bear market territory.

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Markets Bounce Back After Holiday Rest

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The sharp swings on Wall Street continued Tuesday, with stocks surging as traders returned from the 3-day holiday weekend and sent the Dow up 390 points. The gains came after last week’s volatile downturn that saw all the major indexes drop more than 3%, capped off by the Dow’s 272-point drop on Friday after a mixed jobs data report did little to clarify what the Federal Reserve will do on interest rates at its September meeting. The S&P 500 is now back to where we started this month.

China has been at the forefront of most market volatility of late. Well, today U.S. stocks rallied despite more disappointing economic data from China, because the news sparked hopes that the country’s central bank would take more action to stimulate the economy. The report today showed that China’s imports shrank far more than expected in August, falling for the 10th straight month. This may seem sour on the surface, but in reality it could lead to further policy easing from the Chinese government in coming months. The Chinese government has already intervened to keep their domestic stock markets afloat recently and this could be another time when we see them flex their fiscal muscle if import and export data continues to waver.

In uplifting news today, shares of the beloved U.S. powerhouse General Electric (GE) gained 4% today after the company won European and federal approvals for its $9.5 billion deal to buy French multinational Alstom’s power business. GE initially anticipated the value of the deal to be $13.5 billion; however, the closing purchase price is expected to be around $9.5 billion.

I am curious to see if today turns into another dead cat bounce or if a resumption of the bullish trend is in the making.

Today’s rebound pushed all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight higher by a solid margin. The leader of the day was Healthcare (XLV) with +2.80% while Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged a bit but added +2.09%.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 09/04/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 383 ETFs, of which currently 11 (last week 41) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 3 ETFs (last week 7) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 30 (last week 63) above the line and 783 below it out of the 813 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Will Reallocation To US Equities From Europe And Asia Drive Valuations?

Ulli Market Review Contact

ManThe S&P 500 index is likely to hit 2250 by the end of the year though it may seem too bullish right now, said Julian Emanuel, US equity and derivatives strategist at UBS.

There has not been a bear market in the past 25 years without a recession and the economy is simply too strong now whether it is jobs, housing or confidence, he noted.

A bear market not necessarily means a 20 percent slump; the index may just stagnate and refuse to move up. Asked if that could be a possibility, Julian answered in affirmative.

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