- Moving the market
Stocks moved higher early in the session as investors reacted positively to a temporary easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
However, gains were limited by notable weakness in semiconductor stocks, particularly among artificial intelligence-related names.
Chipmakers came under heavy selling pressure, led by Micron, which tumbled nearly 8% to its lowest level in about two weeks. Other memory-related names were hit as well, with Sandisk falling 8.4% and Intel losing 5.3%. The pullback in semiconductors weighed on the broader technology sector for much of the day.
Geopolitical developments remained front and center. The U.S. and Iran agreed over the weekend to pause hostilities and allow commercial ships to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz, helping calm some of the market’s immediate concerns. That sense of relief was later challenged when President Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire and warned of further military action, keeping traders on edge.
Despite the mixed headlines, dip buyers once again showed up in force. Their steady buying helped preserve the market’s early gains and pushed stocks to a positive close. Big Tech also staged a solid rebound after last week’s sharp selling, providing additional support for the major indexes.
The Mag 7 showed signs of life and recovered much of their recent weakness, although they have still trailed the performance of the other 493 S&P 500 components over the past three trading sessions.
Elsewhere, market action was a bit unusual. Oil prices climbed, stocks advanced, and bond prices also moved higher—a combination that doesn’t often occur together. Longer-term Treasury yields edged up modestly, while the U.S. dollar softened.
The weaker dollar provided very little support for gold, which worked its way back toward the $4,000 level. Bitcoin also experienced another wild ride but ultimately finished the day back above $60,000.
With traders continuing to shrug off both geopolitical uncertainty and sector-specific weakness, the big question is: Can the market’s resilience continue, or will escalating global tensions eventually become too difficult to ignore?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The bulls took control right from the opening bell and never looked back, driving the major indexes to a strong finish. Technology stocks led the way, continuing their recent rebound and providing much of the market’s momentum.
The metals complex struggled throughout the session, with gold, silver, and copper all moving lower.
Despite the weakness in commodities, both of our TTIs posted gains, with the domestic TTI significantly outperforming its counterpart today.
This is how we closed 06/29/2026:
Domestic TTI: +8.77% above its M/A (prior close +7.37%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.76% above its M/A (prior close +6.48%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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