A Softer Dollar, Stronger Metals, And A Market Rebound

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Treasury yields finally took a breather after their recent sprint to multiyear highs, and stocks were happy to take the invitation, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all snapping their three-day losing streaks.

The bigger story hasn’t changed, though. Oil remains parked around the $90-mark, geopolitical tensions are keeping energy traders on edge, and the Fed looks less inclined to shrug off higher energy costs than it did a few months ago. That’s keeping valuation pressure firmly in place.

One bright spot today was the weaker dollar, which gave precious metals a tailwind. Gold resumed its march toward new highs, while silver and copper joined the celebration. Bitcoin, meanwhile, seemed perfectly content to watch from the bleachers and do absolutely nothing.

For now, the market’s message is pretty straightforward: lower yields helped stocks catch their breath, but higher energy prices are still the elephant in the room. The question is, which gives way first… oil or investor optimism?

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September Starts With A Hangover: Stocks, Gold, And Bitcoin All Slip

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

September got off to a rough start, with inflation concerns and a 6% jump in oil prices pushing bond yields higher around the world and putting pressure on nearly every asset class.

The rising rate backdrop weighed heavily on tech, with names like Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, and Alphabet leading the retreat.

What really mattered today was the continued surge in global yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury climbed to its highest level since early 2025, while yields in Japan and Germany hit multi-year highs.

Traders are clearly wondering whether sticky inflation and higher energy costs could keep the Fed in a more hawkish mood when it meets later this month.

The stronger dollar was another key story, knocking bitcoin back toward the $77,000 area and sending gold below $4,400.

Add in renewed Middle East tensions and September’s less-than-stellar reputation for stocks, and it felt like the market showed up after a long weekend in a particularly grumpy mood.

The question now is whether today’s selling was just an uneasy start to September, or the beginning of a more persistent seasonal headwind.

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Geopolitics Trips Up Stocks As Gold, Silver, And Bitcoin Shine

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market spent the final trading day of August looking over its shoulder as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran rattled investors.

Stocks moved lower, oil jumped about 3%, and rising long-term Treasury yields added another headwind for equities. Sometimes the market worries about one thing at a time. Today it generously chose two.

That said, it’s worth keeping the bigger picture in mind. Despite August’s geopolitical flare-ups, inflation concerns, and bond market volatility, stocks still finished the month in positive territory, led by technology shares.

The Dow scored a fifth straight monthly gain, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their first monthly advances since May.

What really stood out this month wasn’t just stocks. Gold climbed roughly 10%, silver surged nearly 19%, and Bitcoin delivered its strongest monthly performance since late 2024 by gaining 25%.

With fiscal deficits remaining large, central banks continuing to accumulate gold, and the dollar trending weaker, the case for the “debasement trade” remains very much alive.

So, while today’s headlines focused on missiles and market nerves, is the bigger story still the steady migration toward hard assets and stores of value?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/28/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (229 vs. 223 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

A WINNING WEEK WITH A HAWKISH TWIST: MARKETS DIGEST WARSH’S MESSAGE

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started the day with a spring in their step but lost a little steam as traders digested Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.

The key takeaway? Inflation may be behaving better lately, but the Fed isn’t ready to declare victory just yet.

That recalibrated expectations in a hurry. Odds of a September rate hike jumped, short-term Treasury yields moved higher, and the dollar found its footing. Meanwhile, risk assets got a bit wobbly.

Gold took it on the chin, dropping more than 3%, while Bitcoin delivered its usual roller-coaster performance, briefly topping $81,000 before sliding back toward $77,000.

The broader lesson from today is pretty simple: when real yields and the dollar rise together, even favorite inflation hedges like gold and crypto can have a tough day at the office.

In my view, the long-term case for both is still intact, but today’s action was a reminder that markets rarely move in a straight line. After all, if investing were easy, everyone at the coffee shop would be a billionaire.

So, was today’s pullback just a reality check, or the market’s way of telling us higher rates may be sticking around longer than traders would like?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/27/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 27, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +9.48% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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