ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 04/19/2024

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (244 vs. 228 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For April 19, 2024

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.


[Chart courtesy of]

  1. Moving the markets

Current economic forecasts suggest that the Federal Reserve may delay any rate reductions until September or later, with some analysts not ruling out the possibility of no cuts throughout the year.

Year-to-date analysis for 2024 reveals that while hard economic data has shown improvement, it has been overshadowed by a notable increase in inflation. This has led to a new all-time high for gold prices. Echoing this sentiment, Federal Reserve spokesperson Goolsbee emphasized the significance of the recent inflation data, suggesting that it cannot be overlooked after three consecutive months of similar trends.

Consequently, market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 have diminished significantly this week. This shift in sentiment is clearly illustrated in the accompanying chart, hinting at the potential direction of future rate movements.

Ultimately, the Dow was the sole major index to achieve a gain, while its counterparts suffered losses. The MAG7 stocks also faced a setback, breaking below their 50-day moving averages, as the broader AI sector continued its decline without breaching its 2021 highs.

In the bond market, yields rose following an initial drop in response to the Israeli missile strikes. Meanwhile, the dollar experienced its second consecutive week of gains, Bitcoin exhibited volatility ahead of its halving event, and the 2-year yield once again failed to reach the 5% threshold.

Oil prices concluded the week lower, while gold maintained its strong performance, closing at yet another record high. Silver, too, gained momentum, increasing by 3% over the week to reach its highest point since February 2021.

With precious metals on the rise, one must wonder:

Are they signaling a wake-up call to the equity markets?

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/18/2024

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, April 18, 2024

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— since 11/21/2023

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.96% and is in “Buy” mode as posted.

Read More

Inflation Worries And Rate Hike Expectations: Wall Street’s Dilemma

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of]

  1. Moving the markets

The S&P 500 index continued its downward trajectory, extending its losing streak to five consecutive days. Wall Street witnessed a seesaw battle between optimism and caution, resulting in a lackluster recovery attempt. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq faced headwinds, struggling with a 3% decline this week, marking its longest negative streak since December 2022.

Amidst this volatility, more than 12% of S&P 500-listed companies have reported earnings, showing promise for a positive season. Notably, 73% of these companies have exceeded Wall Street expectations. However, the second quarter has proven challenging due to mounting concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

As April unfolds, all three major indexes remain in the red, a stark contrast to the robust performance seen in the first quarter.

Bond yields surged, impacting equities, while Bitcoin and gold exhibit contrasting trends. The critical question remains:

Who will emerge victorious in this battle between rate hike expectations and the Nasdaq?

Read More

Strange Trading Session: Stocks Go Vertical, Then Reverse

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of]

  1. Moving the markets

The S&P 500 extended its losing streak, dropping for a fourth consecutive session. Struggling technology stocks, including Nvidia, exerted downward pressure on the market. Interestingly, this is the third straight session where stocks opened higher but then faded throughout the day.

Early in the trading day, stocks were sliding after the opening. However, around 10:55 AM ET, a headline about STRIKING IRAN’S NUCLEAR FACILITIES caught investors’ attention and led to an aggressive decline in stock prices.

Despite the recent volatility, the earnings season has kicked off on a promising note. While less than 10% of S&P 500-listed companies have reported financial results so far, more than three out of every four have exceeded Wall Street expectations.

The Dow managed to break its six-day losing streak thanks to UnitedHealth’s post-earnings rally. However, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite experienced three consecutive days of declines.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank needs to see further progress on the inflation front before considering rate cuts. Meanwhile, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield remained relatively stable after briefly crossing the 5% mark following Powell’s remarks.

In the commodities market, crude oil initially drifted lower due to a larger stockpile build, but then Venezuela’s Maduro and SPR headlines caused a sharp price drop to three-week lows. Gold also tumbled, resulting in a losing session.

The trading session took an unexpected turn at 2 PM ET, with stocks going vertical for no apparent reason, only to reverse just as quickly—an almost perfect repeat of the previous day’s pattern.

Bond yields finally fell, providing some relief to bond holders. The 2-year yield rejected the 5% level, and rate-cut expectations remained unchanged. Additionally, the U.S. dollar declined for the first time in six days, while Bitcoin found support around the $60,000 level.

So far, the S&P’s historical 2nd half April performance has not come into play yet:

Can history override current market realities?

Read More

Market Tension Rises Amid Geopolitical Strife And Yield Surges

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of]

  1. Moving the markets

In today’s financial landscape, the S&P 500 experienced a downturn as investors juggled the latest corporate earnings with rising yield concerns and geopolitical tensions.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s remarks suggested that interest rates might remain high, dampening hopes for rate cuts and driving the 2-year yield above 5% for the first time since last November.

Despite the uncertainty, there’s a silver lining: most of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have surpassed expectations, offering a glimmer of optimism. However, the persistence of higher interest rates has cast a shadow over this positive trend, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soaring past the significant 4.6% threshold.

Globally, the market’s pulse quickened with news of Iran’s missile and drone strikes on Israel, contributing to a cautious sentiment. This unease was mirrored in the bond market, where yields surged, leading to a tumultuous day that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq close in the red.

Amidst this, the MAG7 stocks remained steady, the dollar saw modest gains, while crude oil prices held steady, and gold reached a new record closing high.

As gasoline prices continue their upward trajectory, one can’t help but ponder:

Will the now half empty Strategic Petroleum Reserve be tapped once more to temper the rising fuel costs?

Read More