1. Moving the market

Stocks struggled to gain traction today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq coming under pressure early as a sell-off in chip stocks overshadowed an otherwise encouraging batch of earnings reports.

In fact, earnings season is off to a strong start. Of the 40 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, more than 87% have beaten expectations.

The major banks, often viewed as a barometer of overall economic health, set a positive tone earlier this week by delivering second-quarter results that comfortably topped forecasts.

The economic data painted a mixed but generally resilient picture. The U.S. consumer continues to hold up despite ongoing pricing pressures.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 208,000, better than the 218,000 economists were expecting, while retail sales matched forecasts with a 0.2% increase.

On the flip side, housing data, consumer sentiment, and pending home sales all came in softer than expected.

Elsewhere, markets kept a close eye on geopolitics and commodities. Oil initially surged following reports of intensified U.S. strikes against Iran overnight, only to give back those gains later in the session.

Despite the drama, crude has essentially gone nowhere over the past three days. The dollar bounced higher, gold fell below the $4,000 level, and bitcoin drifted lower before finding support near $64,000.

Meanwhile, the AI trade appears to be hitting a rough patch. Traders are beginning to question where the next leg of growth will come from as returns remain elusive, financing costs rise, local communities push back against data-center expansion, and power and water availability become increasingly important constraints.

Taken together, these crosscurrents could keep markets stuck in a sideways trading range until we get greater clarity on earnings, economic growth, and the future of the AI investment boom.

The question now is: will strong earnings be enough to reignite the market’s momentum, or is a longer period of consolidation ahead?

1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a strong start today, with Big Tech leading the charge as investors welcomed more signs that inflation continues to cool.

Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft gained around 3%, while Alphabet added more than 1%, helping lift the major indexes. Risk appetite was also supported by strength in SpaceX shares.

The market’s upbeat mood was fueled by another encouraging inflation report. June’s Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell 0.3%, following Tuesday’s cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading.

Together, the reports reinforced the view that inflation pressures may be easing, and that the Fed could have less reason to keep pushing interest rates higher.

New York Fed President John Williams added to that optimism, saying there are “encouraging reasons” to believe inflation has peaked and should continue edging lower in the coming quarters.

Even with stocks moving higher, gains were somewhat restrained as crude oil prices strengthened after renewed U.S. military action involving Iran raised geopolitical concerns.

Meanwhile, bond yields continued their recent decline, falling for a second straight day as investors dialed back expectations for additional Fed tightening.

The Mag 7 was clearly in rally mode, handily outperforming the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500.

Outside of equities, the dollar took a noticeable hit, gold marked time but managed to remain above the $4,000 level, and bitcoin surged to as high as $65,500 before giving back a small portion of those gains into the afternoon.

All in all, it was a relatively quiet day beneath the surface. The broad market remained largely range-bound, but falling inflation data pushed rate-hike expectations, bond yields, and the dollar lower.

Bitcoin enjoyed a strong rally, while the precious metals market largely stood still.

The big question now is: Will cooling inflation continue to fuel the tech-led rally, or will investors start looking beyond the Magnificent 7 for the market’s next move?

1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq got off to a strong start today, led higher by semiconductor stocks after June inflation came in cooler than expected.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% for the month, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.5%, well below economists’ expectations of 3.8%.

The softer inflation data immediately fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve may not need to be as aggressive with interest rates.

Expectations for a rate hike at the July meeting dropped sharply, while traders continued to price in a better-than-even chance of a move in September.

While today’s CPI report suggests that the inflation spike tied to the Iran conflict may be easing, investors aren’t ready to declare victory just yet.

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and traders continued to keep a close eye on oil prices after U.S. crude briefly climbed above $80 per barrel.

Fresh concerns emerged after President Trump announced plans to reinstate a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy chokepoint.

Not everything was rosy, however. IBM shares plunged 25% after the company warned that second-quarter profits would fall short of expectations due to weak demand in its software and infrastructure businesses. Ouch.

Despite those headwinds, falling bond yields and renewed buying in Mega-Cap and AI-related stocks helped support the broader market.

The Mag 7 once again outperformed the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500, overcoming a rough start to the session and leading the major indexes higher.

The dollar also weakened, providing a tailwind for alternative assets. Gold surged back above the $4,000 level, while bitcoin rallied from roughly $61,000 toward $65,000, marking its highest level in three weeks.

There were plenty of crosscurrents for traders to navigate today, but the market handled them surprisingly well. The big question now is whether the upcoming earnings season can provide enough fuel to keep this rally moving higher.

1. Moving the market

Stocks opened sharply lower after President Trump announced that the U.S. was reinstating what he described as a blockade on Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices soaring.

In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump said the U.S. would act as the “Guardian of the Hormuz Strait” and proposed a 20% fee on cargo shipments to cover the costs of securing the critical shipping lane.

The latest escalation follows a weekend of military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran.

While Tehran claimed it had closed the Strait of Hormuz after targeting U.S. facilities in several Gulf countries, Trump pushed back on that assertion, maintaining that commercial traffic through the waterway remains open.

For now, the market appears stuck in a trading range as investors wait for greater clarity from the Middle East. Semiconductor stocks took a heavy hit, dragging the broader tech sector lower, while bank shares also came under pressure ahead of earnings season.

Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq was the weakest of the major U.S. indexes, breaking below its 50-day moving average once again.

Meanwhile, bond yields moved higher as investors positioned themselves ahead of tomorrow’s closely watched CPI report.

The dollar initially sold off but quickly reversed higher, putting pressure on both gold and Bitcoin.

Gold managed to hold above the $4,000 level by the close, while Bitcoin slipped back toward $62,000. Rising expectations for additional rate hikes further dampened enthusiasm for precious metals and cryptocurrencies.

The recent rotation out of technology stocks remains one of the market’s key themes.

The big question now is whether this is simply a temporary shift in leadership before money flows back into growth stocks—or the early stages of a more cautious and bearish market environment.