Bitcoin Pops, Gold Rebounds As Dollar Weakens

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came out strong in early trading, kicking off the holiday‑shortened week on a high note after President Trump announced that an agreement had been reached to end the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow jumped about 630 points (1.2%) and even tagged a fresh intraday all‑time high.

Meanwhile, SpaceX kept the momentum going—rallying more than 7% after its massive 19% surge during Friday’s market debut.

Over the weekend, Trump posted that the deal with Iran was “now complete.” It’s expected to be formalized as a memorandum of understanding (MOU), with a signing set for Friday in Switzerland, according to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif.

Of course, it’s still early days—there’s plenty of fine print left to hash out before everything is finalized.

The timing of the announcement was notable, coming right after fresh tensions in the Middle East, including exchanges of fire involving Israel and Hezbollah, had cast doubt on whether a deal would get done at all.

On the energy front, Trump also authorized the reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil prices sharply lower. Vice President JD Vance added that the goal is to keep the passage open toll‑free for the long term. As a result, U.S. crude dropped about 5%, hovering near $80 per barrel.

Back in equities, leadership flipped a bit—this time the Mag 7 clearly stole the spotlight, outperforming the rest of the S&P 500 by a wide margin.

Bond yields were mixed, while the dollar slid to its lowest level since June 5. Gold extended its rebound, climbing back above $4,300 after dipping close to $4,000 just a few days ago.

Crypto joined the party as well. Bitcoin was in full “rip” mode, jumping nearly 5%, pushing past $67K, and logging its best day since early March.

While the technical setup has supported this steady squeeze higher in risk assets over the past couple of months, it’s worth remembering that leverage remains elevated. If markets start to wobble, any downside move could accelerate quickly and turn into a sharper selloff.

The big question now is: does this rally have more room to run, or are we setting up for a volatility spike if sentiment suddenly shifts?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 06/12/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (208 vs. 223 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For June 12, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

SPACEX STEALS THE SPOTLIGHT AS MARKETS GRIND HIGHER

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

After a quiet and slightly sluggish start, the major indexes didn’t waste much time finding their footing.

Buyers stepped in, pushing markets into positive territory as traders geared up for the much-anticipated SpaceX IPO. At the same time, investors kept one eye on headlines hinting at a possible U.S.–Iran peace agreement.

SpaceX officially debuted on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with shares expected to open well above the $135 IPO price. The company raised a massive $75 billion by offering over 555 million shares—making it the largest IPO ever, easily surpassing Alibaba’s $22 billion record from 2014.

Going into the debut, expectations were sky-high. Futures pricing pointed to a potential 30% pop, though some traders were cautious. An offering this large can sometimes absorb liquidity and weigh on the broader market, not to mention IPOs tend to bring volatility and sector rotations as investors reshuffle capital.

In the end, SpaceX didn’t disappoint. The stock closed up about 20% on its first day, vaulting it into the ranks of the six most valuable companies in the world. That strong showing helped lift overall sentiment and nudge the broader market slightly higher to close out the week.

On the macro front, “growth” data came in stronger, while “inflation” readings cooled off thanks to softer Core CPI and a miss on PPI. Bond yields moved lower across the board, dragging the dollar down for its worst week since early May.

Meanwhile, oil prices slipped on increasing optimism around a potential U.S.–Iran agreement, with officials suggesting a formal memorandum could be closer than ever.

Commodity markets were mixed—gold pulled back despite a late-week bounce, while copper and silver showed relative strength.

Interestingly, the “Magnificent 7” lagged the broader S&P 493 this week, hinting at some shifting leadership under the surface.

And in crypto, Bitcoin had a solid comeback, climbing from $59K earlier in the week to around $64K.

With the SpaceX excitement now behind us and geopolitical optimism building, the big question is—does this combination set the stage for a continued move higher, or is the market due for a breather?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 06/11/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, June 11, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.69% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Markets Rip Higher As Trump Walks Back Iran Threats

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

U.S. stocks got off to a solid start, helped by a bounce in chip names after taking a beating earlier in the week—even as tensions between the U.S. and Iran heated up.

Oil spiked early after Trump posted that the U.S. would hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT” and even floated taking control of key oil infrastructure like Kharg Island. That kind of talk had energy markets on edge right out of the gate.

Meanwhile, the chip sector flipped the script. Names like Micron, AMD, and Intel rebounded nicely, and the semiconductor ETF jumped about 3%.

That’s a welcome move after last Friday’s brutal 10% drop, which had traders wondering if the sector’s monster run was finally losing steam.

Adding to the optimism, there’s growing buzz around SpaceX’s debut tomorrow, which could shine a spotlight on continued AI-driven demand.

On the data front, inflation came in mixed. Producer prices rose 1.1% in May—hotter than expected—but core PPI (stripping out food and energy) was a bit cooler than forecasts. So, not exactly a clear signal, but not a dealbreaker either.

Then came the plot twist.

By midday, Trump completely reversed course, saying there would be “no strikes on Iran tonight” and that a deal was basically done.

Just like that, the market snapped out of its sideways grind and shot higher. Oil gave back its earlier gains, dragging energy stocks down, while the broader indexes took off.

Under the hood, the Mag 7 lagged again compared to the rest of the market, while falling bond yields pressured the dollar—giving gold a boost from $4,000 to $4,200. Even Bitcoin joined the party, pushing back above $63,500.

All in all, a headline-driven day with plenty of twists. With the SpaceX IPO on deck tomorrow, will today’s bullish momentum carry through—or was this just another knee-jerk reaction?

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Red Across The Board As Geopolitics And Deleveraging Fears Grow

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started the day on shaky footing and never really found their balance.

Early selling kicked in after President Trump said talks with Iran were “taking too long” and hinted at further action. In a post Wednesday morning, he warned Iran had missed its chance at a favorable deal and would now “have to pay the price,” which didn’t exactly calm investors’ nerves.

Things escalated further after reports that U.S. forces carried out strikes on Iran late Tuesday, following the downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. That ramp-up in tensions quickly put markets on edge.

When geopolitical risk heats up like this, it tends to cast a shadow over everything—and right now, it’s making it tough for traders to feel comfortable putting money to work.

That said, not everyone is worried. Some are betting this is just part of the negotiation playbook and that a deal will eventually get done. But if it doesn’t, oil prices could be headed sharply higher, which adds another layer of uncertainty to the outlook.

Back in the market, chip stocks stayed under pressure for yet another session. Names like Micron, AMD, and Broadcom were all lower again, marking a fourth down day out of five.

There’s also a growing narrative that some investors are trimming their big semiconductor winners ahead of the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO on Friday—potentially the largest ever—as they free up capital to participate.

Even a slightly better-than-expected inflation report couldn’t spark a turnaround. Core CPI for May came in at 0.2% for the month, a bit cooler than expected, while the annual rate held at 2.9%. Still above the Fed’s 2% target, but not exactly alarming.

The headline inflation number, however, pushed back above 4% for the first time in three years—definitely not a great look and a reminder that inflation pressures aren’t fully behind us.

By the closing bell, stocks were broadly beat up and still trying to catch up with moves we’ve already seen in bond yields and crude oil.

The Nasdaq took the hardest hit, and notably, dip buyers were nowhere to be found—a bit of a red flag in itself.

Bitcoin once again did its own thing, bouncing nicely off the $61K level and finishing the day with gains.

Meanwhile, bond yields were relatively steady, the dollar slipped a bit, and gold took a sharp hit. That drop in gold was likely driven by margin calls, forcing leveraged traders to sell positions quickly to raise cash.

Zooming out, there’s a lot of leverage still sitting in the system—roughly $100 billion tied up in semis and hardware-related stocks, with a heavy dose of retail participation.

Now that sentiment seems to be shifting, the big question is whether we’re just seeing a typical pullback… or the early stages of a more aggressive unwind.

So, here’s the real question: if this selling starts feeding on itself, how much deeper could this deleveraging cycle go?

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