Mega-Caps Bounce Back – Gold Hits $2,500, Silver Tops $91

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked off on a positive note and kept the upward momentum rolling most of the day, led by gains in tech heavyweights.

Nvidia rose about 1% heading into its big earnings report after the bell (alongside Salesforce and Snowflake), as traders recalibrate those sky-high valuations and get a bit skeptical on how much bang they’re getting from hyperscalers’ massive AI capex spending.

Oracle jumped 3% to lead the software bounce after an upgrade from Oppenheimer, who called the risk-reward “favorable” following the recent pullback. That helped lift the broader tech and AI space for a second straight day.

Elsewhere, macro, and geopolitical noise stayed in the background: Trump’s State of the Union last night talked up the economy, proposed government-backed retirement accounts for workers, and repeated his call to ban big institutional investors from buying single-family homes.

The weekend tariff threat (hiking to 15% globally) turned into a 10% duty on Tuesday, but markets mostly shrugged it off.

The rally was broad-ish, with mega-cap tech surging again and financials joining in. An early short squeeze lost steam by afternoon, but the major indexes held on for a green close.

Bond yields rose modestly (rate-cut expectations slipped a touch), the dollar wobbled lower, and precious metals stayed strong: gold rallied back to $2,500 but couldn’t hold it (thanks to CME “technical difficulties“), while silver still topped $91.

Bitcoin was on fire, up over 11% in the last couple of days.

All eyes are now on Nvidia’s earnings after the close—traders are laser-focused on directional commentary and any visibility into 2027.

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Short Squeeze Powers Small Caps – Metals Take A Breather

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks opened strong and kept the positive momentum going most of the day, with traders shrugging off recent AI disruption fears.

The real spark came from AMD jumping 7% after Meta announced a multiyear deal to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs for its AI data centers. Meta’s also taking a performance-based warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares.

That news gave the chip and software space a nice lift, especially after last week’s heavy selling.

The broader market stayed upbeat thanks to some encouraging macro data—home prices held steady (helping affordability), and consumer confidence rebounded.

Yesterday’s software meltdown took a breather, and a massive short squeeze (the biggest of the year) fueled the upside in small caps, which led the pack.

Bond yields stayed steady, rate-cut expectations eased off a bit, and the dollar ended only modestly higher.

Metals took a little breather—gold dipped to $5,100 but used it as a springboard to hold firm.

Bitcoin dumped overnight but found support at $63K and recovered some ground.

All eyes are now on Nvidia’s earnings report tomorrow—it could set the tone for the AI trade heading into the rest of the week.

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Risk-Off Day – Indexes Red, Precious Metals Rally Hard

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened sharply lower as President Trump ramped up his tariff rhetoric again, responding to the Supreme Court’s strike-down of his “reciprocal” tariffs.

In a Monday post, he warned that any country “playing games” with the ruling—especially those that have “ripped off” the U.S. for years—would face much higher tariffs than previously agreed.

He also said duties would start immediately (though it’s unclear if official documents have been signed) and more levies are coming over the next few months.

That fresh uncertainty triggered a clear risk-off mood, reversing some of last week’s biggest winners. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all took an early hit and stayed under pressure for most of the day, with tech and growth names feeling the pain.

Gold prices surged on the renewed trade and inflation worries—spot gold up about 2%, futures nearly 3%—while silver rallied solidly +5.1%.

Bond yields dropped (10-year to its lowest since Thanksgiving), but that didn’t help equities much. The dollar ended flat, and Bitcoin had no spark, sinking to $65K—its lowest since early February.

Wall Street is now bracing for a busy week: Trump’s State of the Union address tomorrow, Nvidia earnings Wednesday, and Friday’s PPI data that could shift the policy outlook.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 02/20/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (265 vs. 272 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For February 20, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

SILVER +7%, GOLD BACK ABOVE $5,100 – METALS KEEP WINNING

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks bounced back nicely after opening lower, as the Supreme Court struck down most of President Trump’s sweeping tariff policy under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The majority ruled the law “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” which lifted retailers and companies that had been hammered by higher import and manufacturing costs last year.

The ruling didn’t address refunds for tariffs already paid, but Wall Street largely expected the decision anyway—economists think the White House will find other ways to reimpose many of the same duties, so the market reaction stayed pretty muted.

Earlier in the day, Q4 GDP came in softer than expected at 1.4% (vs. the forecasted 2.5%), a sharp slowdown from the 4.4% gain in Q3.

December core PCE inflation (the Fed’s favorite gauge) held steady at 3% YoY—above the 2% target but in line with estimates. That combo gave the Fed a bit more breathing room but didn’t spark any fireworks.

By week’s end, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied to finish higher, though uncertainty around the Court’s decision and what comes next is still the big story.

Mega-cap tech bounced back despite ongoing software weakness. Bond yields rose for the week (helping the dollar), but precious metals surged anyway—silver led with a +7% weekly gain, while gold pushed back above $5,100 for a modest weekly advance.

Bitcoin had a rough week but ended to the upside, potentially breaking out of its recent downtrend channel.

Right now, it feels like the market’s shrugging off the uncertainty and is ready for the next leg up… on the other hand, we could witness more chop until we see how the White House responds and NVDA’s earnings hit next week.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/19/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, February 19, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.39% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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