1. Moving the market

The Dow came out of the gate strong today, jumping nearly 300 points and even tagging a fresh record high early on.

A big help came from falling oil prices—down almost 5%—and a solid bounce in Procter & Gamble, which climbed more than 3% and helped lift the index.

Micron kept its momentum going too. After its massive 19% surge yesterday, that pushed it past the $1 trillion mark, the stock added another 4% today. That rally was fueled by a bullish UBS call suggesting Micron could have a lot more upside, thanks to long-term deals tied to the ongoing AI boom.

Lately, traders seem to be gravitating toward memory chip names as their preferred way to play AI.

On the macro front, traders found some encouragement in comments from President Trump, who said talks with Iran to end the conflict were “proceeding nicely.” That optimism, combined with a strong earnings season, has helped drive stocks higher this month.

That said, not everyone is convinced there’s much gas left in the tank. One strategist is calling for only a modest move higher in the S&P 500—around 2% by year-end—citing concerns over rising bond yields and inflation expectations.

Others are more optimistic, pointing to continued earnings strength and even floating targets as high as 8,000 for the index.

By the close, most of the early excitement had faded. The major indexes finished mostly flat, though the Dow did manage to hold on to a modest gain.

Bond yields ended little changed after initially rising, as reports suggested Iran peace talks might not be going as smoothly as hoped.

Elsewhere, the dollar spiked, gold briefly lost the $4,500 level before bouncing off $4,400, and Bitcoin extended its recent slide.

All in all, uncertainty was the main theme of the day, with mixed signals and ongoing geopolitical chatter leaving markets searching for a clear sense of direction.

So, the question is—are we just pausing before the next leg higher, or starting to run out of steam?

1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked things off on a strong note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moving higher early, powered once again by tech.

A big part of the optimism seemed tied to growing expectations that the U.S. and Iran could be inching toward some kind of deal to wind down tensions.

One of the big winners was Micron, which surged a massive 15% after analysts turned increasingly bullish. UBS even floated the idea of more than 100% upside, pointing to long-term agreements as a key driver. Not bad for a stock that started last week on shaky ground during the broader sell-off in memory chip names.

On the geopolitical front, things remain a bit of a mixed signal. President Trump said talks with Iran are “proceeding nicely,” but also made it clear the U.S. is ready to take action if things fall apart.

At the same time, the U.S. confirmed it carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran, targeting missile sites and boats involved in mine activity—though officials emphasized restraint amid the ongoing ceasefire.

Right now, markets seem to be leaning toward the idea that a détente could be announced in the coming days. That raises the big question: how much of this good news is already baked into prices?

By the close, it was a risk-on vibe. Small caps and the Nasdaq led the charge, while the Dow lagged.

Lower rate-hike expectations helped push bond yields down, the dollar bounced a bit, and commodities were mixed—gold gave back some of yesterday’s gains. Bitcoin had a wild ride too, briefly touching $78K before sliding back toward $75.5K.

The underlying hope is that progress on the U.S.-Iran front could ease energy prices, cool inflation expectations, and keep pressure off yields—but for now, traders seem to be cautiously optimistic.

So, I am pondering: Are markets getting ahead of themselves, or is there still more upside if a deal actually comes through?