ETF Tracker Newsletter For May 1, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RECORDS ROLL ON, BUT THE FOUNDATION LOOKS THINNER

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 pushed to a fresh intraday record high on Friday, getting a big lift from Apple, while oil prices moved lower as a new trading month kicked off.

Apple shares jumped more than 5% after the company delivered a solid fiscal second‑quarter earnings and revenue beat.

Even better, its outlook for the current quarter topped expectations, easily outweighing some lingering disappointment around iPhone sales, which fell short of estimates for the second time in three quarters.

On the other side of the ledger, oil prices slid after reports that Iran sent its response—via Pakistani mediators—to the latest U.S. revisions of a draft agreement aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell roughly 4%, trading near the $100‑a‑barrel mark.

Today’s moves followed a record‑setting session the day before, when the S&P 500 closed above 7,200 for the first time ever. That milestone helped both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lock in their strongest monthly performances since 2020, while the Dow logged its best month since November 2024.

Strong first‑quarter earnings and hopes for easing tensions in the Middle East have powered stocks higher this year. Even after the initial dip when the U.S. war with Iran began, all three major indexes are now trading comfortably above where they started 2026.

By the close, the S&P 500 once again flexed its strength, finishing at a fresh record high—despite another day of brutal negative breadth. In fact, this marked the fourth record high in the past five sessions where decliners (320) far outnumbered advancers (180), highlighting just how narrow this rally has become.

Bitcoin climbed back above $78,000 to notch a new post‑January high, while gold briefly popped midday before fading back to roughly unchanged. As ZeroHedge noted, gold’s stagflationary signal may still be coming—it’s just not being heard yet.

The peak of earnings season is now behind us, with only about 10% of the S&P 500 set to report next week.

As some near‑term catalysts fade, markets may soon be left to grapple with lingering stagflation risks and a deteriorating geopolitical backdrop—so the question is:

Can this rally keep pushing higher with fewer tailwinds and growing uncertainty?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/30/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, April 30, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.25% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Stocks Aim For A Strong Finish Despite Mixed Signals

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

All three major indexes opened the day in positive territory, but the Dow clearly stole the show, surging more than 1% early on thanks to a strong earnings report from caterpillar, which jumped 9%.

That strength helped keep the broader market afloat even as technology struggled.

Tech was a different story. Meta platforms and Microsoft weighed heavily on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, falling 9% and 5%, respectively.

Meta was pressured by higher‑than‑expected capital spending and softer user growth, while Microsoft pulled back after projecting total spending could climb to $190 billion due to rising memory costs.

Even with today’s tech weakness, the bigger picture remains constructive. A strong run in recent weeks has put all three major averages on track to finish the month solidly higher.

The S&P 500 is now up more than 9% month‑to‑date, setting up its best monthly performance since November 2020.

Markets are coming off a mixed session following the fed’s decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%. While the outcome was expected, the 8‑4 vote raised eyebrows, marking the first time since 1992 that four fed officials dissented.

Several policymakers appear increasingly uneasy about inflation and seem eager to signal that the next move may not be a rate cut.

After treading water earlier in the week, stocks melted higher as dip buyers stepped in and pushed indexes to fresh all‑time highs. Among the magnificent seven, results were mixed — Google surged to a new record, while Meta went the other way.

Overnight, intervention by the bank of Japan pushed the dollar lower and helped drag bond yields and oil prices down as well, giving a boost to risk assets.

Precious metals and Bitcoin bounced during the session but remain largely stalled.

With Apple earnings due out this afternoon, the big question is: will they provide the next leg higher—or throw some cold water on the rally?

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Higher Oil, Hawkish Powell, And A Market Going Nowhere

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 spent most of the session hovering near unchanged, while oil prices kept pushing higher amid an ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. With energy prices climbing, traders stayed cautious heading into a packed stretch of catalysts.

Markets were also focused on what could be Jerome Powell’s final policy meeting as Federal Reserve chair, along with earnings from four members of the “Magnificent Seven.”

Expectations were low for any rate changes, but high for guidance—especially given how much uncertainty is tied to inflation and geopolitics right now.

Oil continued its climb after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has asked aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran.

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped another 4%, pushing back above $104 per barrel. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil flows, remains a major concern and keeps upward pressure on energy prices.

As expected, the Fed held rates steady. However, Powell struck a hawkish tone in his press conference, warning that “the effects of oil‑related inflation are still in front of us.” Mixed macro data didn’t help ease concerns, leaving markets stuck in neutral.

By the close, oil surged, bond yields moved higher, and the dollar strengthened.

Gold and Bitcoin both headed lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished essentially flat—another day of plenty of motion beneath the surface, but little progress overall.

Elevated energy prices seem likely to stick around longer than hoped. That said, with the UAE exiting OPEC, could shifting supply dynamics eventually open the door for a reversal in oil prices—or are higher energy costs here to stay?

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When Everything Feels Out Of Sync

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks stumbled early, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back as a mix of tech‑specific concerns and higher oil prices weighed on sentiment.

A report highlighting softer‑than‑expected momentum at OpenAI spooked investors, while rising crude kept inflation worries simmering.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, OpenAI has recently fallen short of its own targets for revenue and new‑user growth.

The report also noted that CFO Sarah Friar raised concerns internally about whether the company could meet future computing contract obligations if top‑line growth doesn’t accelerate. That was enough to hit the tech complex hard.

Chip stocks and AI‑related names led the retreat. Nvidia dropped more than 3%, Broadcom slid over 4%, and AMD, Intel, and Oracle all fell roughly 4% as well.

The timing couldn’t be worse, with earnings season hitting full stride. Five of the Magnificent Seven are set to report this week, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday.

Today’s weakness followed a strong Monday, when both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs.

Those gains already had cracks forming as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran appeared to stall.

Still, there was at least a flicker of optimism after the White House confirmed discussions around Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the war ends and the U.S. lifts its blockade.

Even so, it was a rough session across the board. Every sector except oil finished lower, with red dominating the tape. Metals, Bitcoin, and even traditionally defensive value ETFs took a hit.

It’s a strange setup when stocks hover near record highs while bonds and oil are clearly signaling stress.

Bond yields pushed higher as rate‑cut expectations faded, with markets now pricing just a one‑in‑six chance of a single 25‑basis‑point cut.

The dollar chopped around but ended slightly higher. Gold took a beating, and Bitcoin followed suit, sliding toward $76,000 after topping nearly $89,000 just a day earlier.

With earnings, geopolitics, and rates all pulling in different directions, the big question is: which signal will markets ultimately decide to listen to?

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Jawboning Continues, Markets Wait For Something Real

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes slipped early as stalled peace talks with Iran and a fresh escalation in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, keeping geopolitical tensions front and center heading into an important week.

Over the weekend, President Trump scrapped plans to send U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for ceasefire talks related to Iran, saying negotiations could just as easily happen by phone.

“Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards; they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!”

Iran, for its part, showed little urgency. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said no meeting between Tehran and Washington is currently planned.

That said, an Axios report suggested Iran has floated a new proposal to the U.S. that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while pushing nuclear talks to a later date.

So, the jawboning continues, leaving markets stuck in limbo until something concrete and verifiable actually materializes—whenever that may be.

As a result, markets mostly spun their wheels. Oil prices moved higher, bond yields climbed, and the dollar slipped.

If there was a highlight, it was the Magnificent Seven outperforming the rest of the market, beating the S&P 493 on the day.

Gold didn’t get much help from the weaker dollar and slid below $4,700, while Bitcoin pulled back sharply from its recent high of $79,500 to around $76,500.

With headlines driving sentiment and real progress still elusive, the question remains: how long can markets stay patient before uncertainty starts to bite harder?

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