The Bond Market Sends A Warning, And Wall Street Listens

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today was a reminder that interest rates still matter, even in a market that’s been happily distracted by AI for much of the year.

Global bond yields pushed to levels not seen in years, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury hovering around 5.3% and long-term rates climbing across Japan and Europe. That’s the kind of move that eventually gets traders’ attention.

Stocks finally took notice. The S&P 500 slipped, pressured by higher yields, firmer oil prices, and weakness in semiconductor shares.

The AI crowd, which has largely ignored the rate story, led much of the retreat.

Meanwhile, gold lost its shine, the dollar was little changed, and Bitcoin somehow found its way back toward $65,000, apparently following its well-known strategy of doing the unexpected.

The bigger issue is that markets are still focused on where rates may end up, not where they’re starting from. If bond yields keep climbing, that could become a much stronger headwind for both stocks and bonds.

The “soft landing” narrative remains alive, but it’s looking a little less comfortable in the aisle seat.

Is the market finally waking up to the reality of higher-for-longer rates?

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A Mixed Market Menu: AI Gains, Middle East Pains

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today’s market felt like a tug-of-war with no clear winner. Early optimism around AI helped keep the S&P 500 on steady footing, while chip names such as Micron, Nvidia, and Broadcom benefited from continued enthusiasm for the AI story.

But as the day wore on, rising oil prices and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions grabbed traders’ attention. Higher oil prices nudged bond yields higher, and that was enough to take some of the wind out of the market’s sails by the close.

The bigger picture remains a bit of a mixed bag. Softer retail sales and tame inflation have eased fears of near-term Fed tightening, but geopolitical headlines are keeping traders on their toes.

Gold climbed back above $4,400, the dollar slipped slightly, and Bitcoin decided to throw its own party, jumping above $64,500 for reasons known only to Bitcoin.

With Fed minutes due Wednesday and retail earnings on deck, investors may not get many major catalysts this week, but they certainly won’t be lacking for headlines.

The question is: will AI enthusiasm keep outweighing geopolitical worries, or are we in for a few more choppy sessions before the market finds its footing?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/14/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (229 vs. 223 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 14, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RECORD HIGHS MEET RISING YIELDS: A MARKET AT ODDS WITH ITSELF

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Over coffee this morning, I’d say the market’s most impressive feat was its ability to ignore almost everything thrown at it.

Retail sales came in softer than expected, Applied Materials stumbled more than 4%, oil continued climbing on Middle East tensions, and long-term Treasury yields pushed to levels not seen in decades.

Yet stocks largely held their ground, with the S&P 500 coming off a week filled with fresh record highs.

The real story remains the tug-of-war between stocks and bonds. Equity investors are celebrating easing inflation, a friendlier Fed outlook, and exceptionally strong earnings growth, while the bond market seems far less convinced that inflation and deficits are yesterday’s problems.

Gold is acting strong, the dollar weakened, and Bitcoin is still pacing back and forth inside its well-worn trading range.

I must admire the resilience of U.S. stocks, but when record-high equity prices are sharing the stage with multi-year high bond yields, I can’t help but wonder: which market is eventually going to blink first?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/13/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 13, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +11.18% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Record Highs, Cooler Inflation, And A Broader Rally

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks managed to grind higher today, with the S&P 500 notching another intraday record as investors welcomed a softer-than-expected inflation backdrop.

July producer prices came in cooler than forecast, reinforcing the idea that inflation pressures aren’t accelerating, even if the Fed isn’t quite ready to declare victory.

The market’s reaction was telling: bond yields initially moved lower, oil prices slid before recovering, and equities kept their footing.

By the close, the Nasdaq was again the leadership group, while the Dow trailed. Interestingly, the Mag 7 still couldn’t outshine the other 493 names in the S&P 500, a reminder that this rally has broadened beyond the usual AI superstars.

Elsewhere, the dollar finished mostly unchanged, gold slipped below $4,400, and Bitcoin found buyers around the $62,000 level after another shaky session.

As for the AI boom, today’s debate centered on whether investors are focusing on the right risks. History shows that market narratives often look much clearer in hindsight than they do in real time.

So, with inflation allegedly behaving, the broad market holding up, and leadership continuing to expand, is the next leg higher going to come from the forgotten stocks rather than the market’s biggest celebrities?

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