The Indexes Wobble As Warning Signs Pile Up

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started the week under pressure as higher oil prices and another surge in bond yields gave the bulls a rude Monday-morning wake-up call.

Brent crude jumped more than 2% to around $107 a barrel and WTI moved above $94 after President Trump rejected Iran’s ceasefire conditions. Oil later backed off its intraday highs, but the message was clear: higher-for-longer energy prices aren’t doing the inflation outlook any favors.

That was reflected in bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5.27%, while the 30-year topped 5.5%, both hovering near multiyear highs. Markets are increasingly recognizing that stubborn inflation, fueled in part by elevated energy prices, could keep central banks pressing the rate-hike button longer than investors would like.

That makes this week’s economic calendar especially important, with PCE inflation on Wednesday, manufacturing data Thursday, and the September jobs report Friday. Plenty of opportunities for the bond market to misbehave.

Higher yields nudged the dollar up while gold got clobbered, falling to a nearly two-month low as leveraged traders reportedly liquidated positions to meet margin calls.

I view that as more of a temporary setback than a fundamental change in gold’s longer-term picture. Bitcoin, meanwhile, performed its usual dump-and-pump routine and finished only modestly below Friday’s close.

The more concerning signal came from market breadth. For the 10th straight session, NYSE new lows outnumbered new highs, while our TTIs continue drifting toward a potential Sell signal.

The major averages may still look reasonably composed, but underneath the surface, the market is clearly losing some footing.

Coincidence, or is the market quietly telling us something before the TTIs (section 3) do?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/24/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 24, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +2.57% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Stocks Shrug Off Surging Yields, But For How Long?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks stumbled again as Treasury yields continued their relentless climb, fueled by expectations that the Fed may have another rate hike in store. The 30-year yield touched 5.446%, while the 10-year surged to 5.22%. A pullback in Oracle didn’t do the tech sector any favors either.

Adding fuel to the inflation fire, oil moved sharply higher, with Brent around $105 and WTI near $93. Fed funds futures now put the odds of another October hike above 70%, so the old “higher for longer” theme seems to have acquired a second wind.

Despite all that, stocks showed surprising resilience. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq clawed their way back to roughly unchanged, erasing their early losses even as bonds continued to get hammered. Apparently, equities haven’t received the memo yet.

Elsewhere, the dollar strengthened to its highest level since late July, putting additional pressure on gold, which is trying to defend the $4,300 area. Bitcoin, meanwhile, was content to tread water around $84,000.

The bigger question remains the bond market. Stocks have largely shrugged off the surge in yields, but that disconnect can’t continue indefinitely. Either yields eventually retreat, or elevated equity valuations will have to do some adjusting.

On a personal note, I’ll be out tomorrow, so tonight’s StatSheet wraps up the week for me.

When I return, will bond yields have finally taken a breather, or will stocks be the ones waving the white flag?

Continue reading…

2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)

Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.

This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.

Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)     

Stocks stumbled out of the gate again but recovered most of their early losses as the session progressed. Metals joined the rebound but fell short of getting back to even.

Our TTIs eased lower as well, though both remain in bullish territory above their trend lines. Rising oil prices and bond yields provided the main headwinds, keeping the bulls from getting too comfortable.

This is how we closed 09/24/2026:

Domestic TTI: +2.57% above its M/A (prior close +3.09%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.

International TTI: +3.83% above its M/A (prior close +4.31%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.

All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.

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Higher Yields Trigger A “Sell Everything” Wednesday

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Wall Street ran into a familiar troublemaker today: higher bond yields.

Hotter-than-expected economic data sent Treasury yields surging, with the 10-year climbing above 5.1% and the 2-year approaching 4.9%.

That revived fears that the Fed may not be finished tightening, especially after Governor Michael Barr reinforced the message that further policy adjustments may be needed to bring inflation under control.

Stocks got the message quickly. Utilities, consumer discretionary, and communication services led the retreat, while the broader market headed south pretty much from the opening bell.

Higher yields also lit a fire under the dollar, which pulled the rug out from under metals.

Gold slipped below $4,300, while Bitcoin joined the risk-off parade and dropped toward $84,000. Even crude oil’s advance couldn’t change the mood.

The bottom line: surging yields triggered a classic “sell first, ask questions later” session, and hopes that the approaching midterms might keep the Fed on the sidelines didn’t offer much comfort.

Apparently, Wall Street has rediscovered an old rule: when the bond market starts shouting, everybody else stops talking.

So, is today’s selloff just another shakeout, or are rising yields about to become the market’s biggest headache again?

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Oil Cools, Metals Rally, And Wall Street Waits For The Next Headline

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The Nasdaq pushed to another intraday record today, but the broader market mostly spun its wheels.

Oil continued to retreat on reports that Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, while Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing to restart its East-West pipeline. Neither development is a done deal, but it was enough to take some pressure off oil, stocks, and bond yields.

After yesterday’s strong rally, however, traders seemed content to catch their breath. The S&P 500 finished essentially unchanged, bond yields went nowhere, and the dollar took the scenic route before closing at its highest level since August.

Metals were more interesting. Gold climbed out of an early hole despite the stronger dollar, while silver and copper did even better. Bitcoin briefly touched $87,000 overnight before easing back, a well-deserved breather after its recent surge.

Bottom line: there was plenty of movement, but very little real direction. With the Trump-Xi summit approaching and Iran headlines still driving sentiment, traders remain glued to the news ticker.

Will the next headline finally give this market some direction, or just send us on another lap around the block?

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Risk-On Returns: Tech Rallies, Oil Slides, Bitcoin Breaks Loose

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Wall Street came out swinging Monday, shrugging off another round of Middle East tensions as falling oil prices, easing bond yields, and a powerful tech rally gave the bulls plenty of ammunition.

AI-related stocks did much of the heavy lifting, with Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm surging, while the Mag 7 once again flexed their muscles and easily outpaced the rest of the S&P 500. Apparently, when AI gets excited, geopolitical worries have trouble getting a seat at the table.

Oil provided another tailwind, with U.S. crude dropping about 5% despite escalating tensions in the Middle East. That helped ease inflation concerns, although with the Fed having just raised rates and energy supplies still vulnerable, the inflation battle is far from over.

Elsewhere, the dollar edged higher, gold and silver slipped modestly, but crypto stole the spotlight. Bitcoin jumped more than 6% to around $86,000 as ETF inflows accelerated, suggesting traders may be betting that Fed policy still isn’t restrictive enough to seriously dampen financial conditions.

Bottom line: It was a solid risk-on session, led by tech, helped by falling oil and yields, and accompanied by another burst of enthusiasm in Bitcoin.

The bulls clearly won today, but with geopolitics, inflation, and the Fed still lurking in the background, can they keep the party going without someone eventually turning on the lights?

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