Stocks Surge On Clear Election Outcome, Falling Oil, And A Friendly History Lesson

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came out of the gate with conviction today as investors welcomed a decisive Democratic victory in the midterms and, perhaps more importantly, President Trump’s willingness to accept the results. Markets love many things, but certainty may be their favorite.

The combination of a divided Washington, falling oil prices, and easing bond yields gave traders plenty to cheer about. Crude tumbled nearly 8% on hopes of less escalation in Iran, pulling yields and the dollar lower while giving a boost to gold, crypto, and risk assets across the board.

There was also a healthy dose of history in the air. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher one year after every midterm election, with average gains of roughly 15%.

Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but it’s a statistic bullish investors were more than happy to quote today.

For now, the market seems relieved that politics may be taking a back seat to earnings, growth, and lower energy prices.

The question is: will this post-election rally have staying power, or did the market just enjoy its first sugar rush of a potentially different political backdrop?

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Tech Takes The Wheel As Markets Brace For Election Results

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got a lift today as investors tiptoed back into big tech ahead of the midterm elections.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 pushed higher, with the chipmakers leading the charge. AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, Micron, and Intel all posted solid gains, suggesting the AI trade still has plenty of believers.

Apple was the notable exception, slipping after a softer margin outlook and disappointing iPad sales. Even market favorites have an occasional bad hair day.

Elsewhere, oil eased on hopes of progress in U.S.-Iran talks, gold pulled back as the dollar strengthened, and Bitcoin finally caught its breath as Binance-related outflow concerns appeared to settle down.

The bigger story, though, remains the election.

Markets generally dislike uncertainty more than bad news, and history suggests that once the votes are counted, investors often breathe a sigh of relief.

Since 1974, the S&P 500 has delivered a median gain of 6% in the three months following midterm elections. The question now is whether this time will rhyme with history, or if the market has a different script in mind.

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Dead-Cat Bounce Or Bullish Setup? Markets Await Apple And Election Results

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came out of the gate with plenty of energy as oil prices tumbled and a few beaten-up tech names found their footing.

Traders were clearly positioning for a busy week ahead, with earnings, jobs data, and the midterm elections all competing for attention.

The early optimism didn’t last. By the closing bell, dip buyers had apparently decided to call it a day, leaving the S&P 500 and especially the Nasdaq in the red.

Tech got a brief boost from another big AI-related deal, but Oracle’s massive fundraising plans reminded investors that building AI infrastructure isn’t exactly cheap.

Elsewhere, falling bond yields pushed the dollar lower, giving gold a healthy rebound, while Bitcoin’s recovery rally ran out of steam.

In the end, today’s action looks a lot like a classic dead-cat bounce rather than the start of a fresh advance.

With Apple earnings and election results just around the corner, will they provide the spark tech bulls have been waiting for, or was today’s rally simply a dress rehearsal?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/30/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (158 vs. 147 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 30, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RISK-OFF FRIDAY: TECH, CRYPTO, AND METALS HEAD SOUTH TOGETHER

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

If October taught investors anything, it’s that markets eventually start asking for the receipt. After two years of AI-driven enthusiasm, Friday felt like a reality check as investors rotated out of the high-flying AI names and into more defensive corners of the market.

The Nasdaq led the way lower as disappointing reports from Amazon, Intel, and several chip-related names raised fresh questions about the pace and profitability of AI spending.

Meanwhile, a massive crypto exchange hack added to the risk-off mood, pushing Bitcoin lower and dragging metals down right alongside it.

Even the “Magnificent 7” had a rough month, while the other 493 companies in the S&P quietly held their ground, a reminder that the market isn’t always telling the same story beneath the surface.

Bond yields finally caught a bid, oil kept climbing, and October closed with plenty of investors wondering whether the AI trade has merely hit a speed bump or if it’s entering a longer period of digestion.

With the midterm-election tailwind now the next hopeful narrative, the question is: will history come to the rescue, or is the market asking for a little more proof before handing out rewards again?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/29/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 29, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.48% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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