Choppy Session Ends Flat As Oil Swings Keep Traders On Edge

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks pushed higher early on, even though trading stayed pretty choppy. The move built on yesterday’s big comeback as oil prices finally cooled off and traders kept a close watch on the escalating conflict with Iran.

After a strong run, crude took a sharp dive today on expectations that several countries might tap their emergency oil reserves to soften the impact of the conflict. The International Energy Agency said it would meet later Tuesday to assess the situation and decide whether a coordinated release of stockpiles is needed.

This all comes after a wild session Monday, when the Dow clawed its way back from an 800‑point drop as oil retreated. The rebound got extra fuel when President Trump suggested the conflict might wrap up soon, saying the U.S. was making “major strides” toward its military goals.

Still, Defense Secretary Hegseth made it clear the operation wasn’t exactly winding down, calling today the “most intense day of strikes inside Iran” and claiming Iran is “badly losing.”

Even with Monday’s comeback, stocks couldn’t hold the momentum. The major indexes finished near flat as crude oil whipped around and kept markets off balance.

Market breadth wasn’t great, but the Mag 7 once again carried the load, outperforming the broader S&P 493 despite rising bond yields. The dollar dipped before staging a last‑hour comeback.

Metals helped brighten the mood—gold flirted with $5,200 before easing a bit, while silver and copper pushed higher. Bitcoin joined the party too, popping up to $72,000 before settling back near $70,000.

Still, traders remain on edge about a prolonged disruption in oil and gas flows if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut. With around 8 million barrels a day stuck behind that bottleneck… yeah, that’s a big problem.

So, the question is: do markets have enough momentum to shake off the oil drama, or is this just the calm before another round of volatility?

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Early Sell-Off Fades – Bulls Fight Back Amid Middle East Chaos

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks opened deep in the red as U.S. oil futures smashed through $100 a barrel (hitting over $119 overnight—the highest since 2022), sparking fresh fears of a stagflation scenario with rising inflation and slowing growth.

The spike came after major Middle East producers slashed output due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait announced cuts (details TBD), and Iraq reportedly saw production drop 70%.

Wall Street saw $100 oil as a potential breaking point for the economy unless the conflict cools fast.

President Trump’s Sunday comment that the war is “very complete” and ahead of his initial 4–5-week timeline (“They have no navy, no communications, no Air Force“) flipped the mood. Bulls charged back in, pushing the major indexes to a solidly green close and erasing the early losses.

Bond yields tumbled on Trump’s remarks (easing inflation fears), the dollar reversed its overnight spike and ended lower, gold rallied toward $5,150 but fell just short of green, and silver held steady.

Bitcoin stayed bullish all day, climbing back above $69,000.

Big picture: the Middle East war rages on, inflation is sticky and now faces a supply shock, the labor market is stalling, the Fed is boxed in, tariff policy is in legal chaos, and private credit stress is still simmering.

Today’s comeback was welcome, but it hasn’t erased the challenges ahead.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 03/06/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (272 vs. 227 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For March 6, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

WEAK JOBS REPORT + OIL SPIKE – STOCKS SLIDE, MAG 7 HOLDS FIRM

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks opened lower and stayed soft all day, adding to their weekly losses as oil prices spiked higher and traders digested a surprisingly weak February jobs report.

Nonfarm payrolls dropped by -92,000 (a big miss vs. the expected +50,000 gain), with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4% from 4.3%. Ouch! That soft labor data, combined with persistent inflation concerns, kept the risk-off mood alive.

West Texas Intermediate crude broke above $89 a barrel, and Brent traded over $91 as worries grew about potential supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

Higher energy costs are putting more pressure on consumer spending and complicating the Fed’s rate decisions—soft jobs + sticky inflation isn’t the Goldilocks scenario anyone wants.

The Mag 7 actually outperformed the rest of the S&P 493 this week, acting almost like a safe-haven flow alongside the dollar (which held firm).

Bond yields spiked but backed off their highs today. Precious metals had a choppy week overall—treading water after Monday/Tuesday’s sell-off—but gold found support around $5,000 and swung sideways.

Silver lagged, and Bitcoin ended the week basically unchanged after hitting highs midweek.

Traders are now wondering if oil heads toward $100 next week and what kind of reckoning stocks might face if history repeats.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/05/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, March 5, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.09% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Early Weakness Turns Ugly – Late Bounce Trims Losses

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks resumed their slide after yesterday’s brief breather, as fresh worries about the Iran conflict flared up again and sent oil prices surging.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures topped $80 a barrel in the afternoon—the highest since July 2024—after Iran claimed it hit an oil tanker with a missile.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added fuel by saying Iran isn’t asking for a ceasefire and sees no reason to negotiate with the U.S. and Israel.

That energy spike triggered big swings all day. The Dow plunged 1,000 points right around the time oil hit $80, dropping as much as 1,100 points (about 2.4%) at its low.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also traded near session bottoms after briefly popping above flat early on. The selling pushed the S&P below its critical 100-day moving average (6,836)—a key support level that had held since November’s “Liberation Day” breakout.

Bond yields rose for the fourth straight session, adding to the pressure, while precious metals and Bitcoin pulled back. Still, most assets bounced off their worst levels late in the day, trimming the damage a bit.

I am pondering if the geopolitical risks might keep the bears in charge a bit longer until tomorrow’s jobs report or some clearer news breaks the stalemate?

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