Stocks rallied right from the open after President Trump posted that the U.S. and Iran have been holding talks, and he’s now halting strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
The market latched onto the hope that the Middle East conflict—which had spiked oil prices and stoked recession fears—might finally be winding down.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures plunged more than 9% to around $88 a barrel, while Brent fell over 10% to $100.
Trump’s post read: “I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” (Iran later pushed back hard on much of the rhetoric, so the truth is still murky.)
That de-escalation signal was enough to satisfy the market’s desperation for good news—at least for now. Cyclical sectors like banks and industrials surged, tech joined in, and the rally stayed broad.
Small caps were the day’s biggest winners thanks to another short squeeze, though the majors all came off their early highs to close with solid gains.
Bond yields slipped (giving equities a tailwind), the dollar tumbled, gold bounced on Trump’s comments but still ended in the red (continuing its recent unwind of leverage), silver eked out a small gain, copper advanced 3.5%, and Bitcoin moved up nicely, almost tagging $72K.
What tomorrow brings is anyone’s guess, but we can count on the headline ping-pong to keep dominating market direction.
Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.
The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (178 vs. 116 current).
ANOTHER LOSING WEEK – INDEXES BREAK 200DMA ON IRAN FEARS
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
The major indexes opened weak and kept sliding throughout the week, closing out another losing stretch as traders stayed glued to the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict.
Overnight exchanges of strikes between Iran and Israel, plus new Iranian attacks on energy sites in the Persian Gulf, kept the pressure on.
The Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is sending thousands of additional Marines to the region, and Iran’s Supreme Leader doubled down on keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed as leverage.
Oil prices stayed elevated but didn’t explode further—WTI and Brent futures hovered around flat today, though both are up more than 40% since the war began.
That energy shock has kept inflation fears front and center, especially after this week’s data showed inflation “outperforming” (hotter than expected) and growth “underperforming,” bringing the dreaded “stagflation” word back into play.
The S&P 500 and other majors ended the week down roughly 2%, and what’s notable is that all of them have now broken below their 200-day moving averages—a classic bearish technical signal that could invite more selling.
The Mag 7 underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 again, bond yields climbed higher across the board (pushing rate-cut expectations lower), and the dollar reversed last week’s losses amid signs of funding stress in the global financial plumbing.
Gold plummeted to seven-week lows (likely because in a dollar shortage, it’s one of the first assets sold), while silver and the metals complex generally struggled.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, held up remarkably well and has actually advanced since the war started.
ZeroHedge summed it up perfectly: decelerating growth, rising inflation threats (and their bond market impact), already low equity risk premia, and stretched valuations are making global stocks increasingly vulnerable.
Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +1.72% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.
The major indexes opened weak and stayed under pressure for most of the day, as oil prices kept climbing on fresh worries from the U.S.-Iran conflict.
West Texas Intermediate crude swung between $93 and $100 a barrel, while Brent surged 3% to $111 after Iran struck a key LNG export facility in Qatar and Israel hit Iran’s South Pars gas field.
Iran retaliated by targeting Qatari energy sites, and President Trump warned that any more attacks on Qatar would lead to the U.S. “massively blowing up” the South Pars field.
One analyst summed it up: the U.S. and Israel have “won” the conventional war, but there’s no quick military fix for reopening the Strait of Hormuz without ground troops—meaning diplomacy is the only real path back to normal supply.
That energy shock kept the risk-off mood alive, with the S&P 500 and Dow closing lower (the S&P almost lost its 200-day moving average). The Nasdaq felt the tech weakness too.
Small caps were the outlier, outperforming thanks to a big short squeeze that pushed them into the green.
Bond yields surged midday but ended about flat, the dollar had an ugly day, gold got spanked again, and Bitcoin dipped but found support at $69K and popped into the close.
The metals complex is in a long-overdue correction after its huge run-up, but my long-term view remains bullish. The big legs lower in gold this week happened during Asia and Europe sessions, likely tied to strains in global dollar funding—if there’s a dollar shortage, gold gets sold first.
Big picture: the energy shock means higher inflation, slower growth, and a less accommodative Fed—unless a funding crisis forces emergency rate cuts.
Today’s weakness adds to the chop we’ve seen, but the underlying trend hasn’t broken yet.
The major indexes opened lower and stayed under pressure all day, as a hotter-than-expected producer price index (PPI) report added fuel to inflation worries.
The PPI—measuring wholesale prices—jumped 0.7% in February, way above the 0.3% economists had forecast. That came on top of the ongoing Iran war, which has already jacked up oil prices and stoked stagflation fears (rising inflation + slowing growth).
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed more than 2% to around $98 a barrel, while Brent jumped over 5% to $109. The spike followed reports of Israel striking Iran’s largest gas processing facility in Bushehr Province, plus Iran’s threats to target oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.
The Fed did exactly what was expected—held rates steady—but the hotter inflation data made them sound to get more hawkish if needed, with price stability now front and center.
There was no real safe haven today—gold puked and lost its $5,000 level, the metals complex generally sold off, and Bitcoin reversed course but found support around $71K.
I’m wondering if dip buyers are still alive and ready to step in to save the markets from further turmoil, or if this kind of pressure might need more time to play out.
Continue reading…
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy”Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Bullish vibes were nowhere to be found—the bears took full control from the open and drove everything deep into the red.
Stocks, bonds, crypto… you name it, it got hit hard. There was really no place to hide, and even the metals took a solid licking, unable to buck the trend like they often do.
Our TTIs couldn’t escape the pressure either—they gave back some of their recent gains, with both pulling lower.
The domestic one is now getting uncomfortably close to its long-term trend line and risks breaking below it, which would end the current Buy cycle. The international TTI held up a little better but still retreated.
This is how we closed 03/18/2026:
Domestic TTI: +1.80% above its M/A (prior close +3.16%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.78% above its M/A (prior close +5.83%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
