1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 briefly touched a fresh record high early in the session, riding the momentum of semiconductor stocks extending their longest winning streak on record.

That early strength didn’t fully carry through the day, though, as the broader market turned mixed, and traders weighed the latest developments out of the Middle East.

Geopolitics stayed front and center after President Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” laying mines in the Strait, stressing there should be “no hesitation” in a Truth Social post.

The comments followed earlier remarks this week in which Trump said extending the ceasefire made sense given Iran’s government was “seriously fractured.” The mixed messaging kept investors cautious.

Earnings added another layer of volatility. IBM slid 8% and ServiceNow dropped 17% after their reports disappointed investors. On the flip side, United Rentals stole the spotlight, surging 20% and earning the title of best performer in the S&P 500 for the day.

At this stage, stocks appear to be searching for stable footing after an impressive rebound off the March lows.

Markets seem less reactive to every Iran‑related headline and more focused on earnings, fundamentals, and the path of Federal Reserve policy. Still, there’s only so long investors can tune out geopolitical risks before they start to matter again.

By the close, there were few clear winners. Value stocks were the lone bright spot, while the metals complex retreated, and Bitcoin slipped back from the $79,000 level.

Adding to the uncertainty, rumors that Iran’s parliamentary speaker resigned from the negotiating team sparked fears that the Revolutionary Guard may be tightening its grip. Disarray best describes the situation—and markets didn’t love it.

So, the question remains: are investors right to look past the headlines, or is geopolitics about to force its way back into the driver’s seat?

1. Moving the market

Stocks pushed higher early after President Trump announced an extension of the U.S. ceasefire with Iran, and a solid batch of earnings reports helped keep sentiment upbeat.

The move gave markets a sense of breathing room, even if the situation remains far from resolved.

Shortly after Tuesday’s close, Trump said he would extend the ceasefire, citing Iran’s “seriously fractured” government as a reason to allow more time for negotiations.

At the same time, he emphasized that the U.S. military would maintain its blockade and remain fully prepared should talks fail. In other words, diplomacy stays on the table—but the pressure hasn’t gone anywhere.

That said, the timeline still looks shaky. Reports suggest Vice President JD Vance paused plans to join peace talks after Tehran failed to show meaningful commitment. Iranian state media added to the uncertainty, quoting negotiators who dismissed talks with the U.S. as a “waste of time.”

So yes, the jawboning continues, and likely will for a while. Still, markets seem to be focusing on the broader takeaway: despite the noise, the path appears more de‑escalatory than not.

Beyond geopolitics, earnings season is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Boeing shares climbed more than 4% after reporting a smaller‑than‑expected first‑quarter loss, while GE Vernova jumped 10% on stronger‑than‑expected revenue.

So far, more than 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten expectations—a strong start by any measure.

By the close, tech was once again in the driver’s seat, pushing both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs. Rising oil prices were largely shrugged off, as confidence in earnings outweighed concerns about narrow market breadth.

The Magnificent Seven handily outperformed the rest of the index, moving back into the green for the week.

Bond yields were mixed, the dollar strengthened, gold posted modest gains, and Bitcoin continued to march higher, breaking above $79,000 for the first time since February 2.

As ZeroHedge put it, if markets believe a resolution is likely in the coming months, even meaningful near‑term economic damage may not derail equities or other long‑duration assets.

The real question is: how long can that conviction hold if progress on the diplomatic front continues to stall?

1. Moving the market

A positive start to the day fizzled out quickly, with the major indexes sliding into the red as traders waited for fresh developments out of the Middle East. With the current ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday, uncertainty once again took center stage.

President Trump told CNBC that he expects the U.S. and Iran to reach a “great deal,” but he also made it clear that the U.S. military is ready to act if no agreement is signed before the deadline — and that he has no intention of extending the ceasefire. That tougher tone followed an earlier Truth Social post in which Trump claimed Iran had “violated the ceasefire numerous times.”

Despite the headlines, Wall Street appears to be slowly looking past the immediate conflict.

What really matters to markets is the normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and on that front, it feels like we’re getting closer. There was a brief pickup in commercial vessel traffic over the weekend, although that momentum stalled again after several reported attacks on ships.

By the close, the major indexes couldn’t recover and finished solidly in the red. Anxiety around the ceasefire deadline weighed on nearly every sector, with “value” stocks being the lone area showing some resilience. Even an early short squeeze failed to stick, leaving small caps as the day’s clear underperformers.

Economic data offered some bright spots. Retail sales surprised to the upside, core sales came in strong, and pending home sales jumped sharply in March. Still, the macro news struggled to offset geopolitical concerns.

Bond yields moved higher, pushing the dollar up as well — a tough combination for gold, which slipped below the $4,800 level and tested the $4,700 area. Bitcoin faded too but held up better than the metals overall.

With uncertainty in the Middle East still elevated — and the risk of no truce looming — the odds of another equity drawdown remain uncomfortably high, while hopes for a sustained rally continue to fade.

The question now is: what will it take to shift sentiment decisively back to the upside?