Bitcoin And Copper Stand Out While Stocks Slip Back Into The Red

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a strong start, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moving higher as oil prices swung back and forth in response to the latest developments in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

Semiconductor stocks provided additional support, helping lift the broader market early in the session.

Overnight, the U.S. carried out its ninth consecutive day of strikes on Iran.

However, sentiment improved later in the morning after Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei suggested that diplomatic channels remain open. According to him, intermediaries continue to exchange messages with Iran, raising hopes that negotiations could eventually help ease tensions.

Despite the encouraging start, the early rally ultimately ran out of steam. The major indexes steadily gave back their gains, with all three closing modestly in the red as investors continued to grapple with the uncertainty surrounding the rapidly evolving situation in the Middle East.

Elsewhere, oil posted moderate gains, while gold and silver were largely unchanged. Copper and bitcoin managed to buck the market weakness, turning in solid performances despite the decline in equities.

Bond yields moved higher, while the dollar took traders on a roller-coaster ride before ending the day little changed.

Bitcoin was choppy early on but regained its footing, climbing back above $65,500 and holding those gains even as tech stocks faded into the close.

Looking at the bigger picture, it was ultimately a day of treading water. Markets remain caught between geopolitical uncertainty and hopes for a diplomatic resolution, leaving investors hesitant to make any big moves.

Will tomorrow finally bring a clearer direction, or are we in for more of the same back-and-forth trading?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 07/17/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (219 vs. 216 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For July 17, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

TECH TAKES A BEATING WHILE GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ADD TO MARKET JITTERS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks remained under pressure as the S&P 500 extended its decline, putting the index on track for a losing week.

Much of the weakness came from the technology sector, with the Nasdaq taking a particularly hard hit as traders continued to question whether the massive spending spree on artificial intelligence will deliver the returns many have been expecting.

Semiconductor stocks were once again at the center of the selloff. Both the iShares semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and the VanEck semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell more than 2% on the day, with SMH now down roughly 9% for the week.

The weakness added to losses from the previous session, underscoring just how quickly sentiment has turned against one of the market’s strongest groups this year.

A growing concern is the rapid progress of open-source AI models coming out of China.

Reports suggesting these models are beginning to rival offerings from OpenAI and anthropic have investors wondering whether the industry’s enormous ai spending commitments can be justified over the long run.

Outside of semiconductors, Netflix was another notable loser, tumbling more than 8% after its outlook did little to calm fears that subscriber and revenue growth may be starting to slow.

Geopolitical tensions also stayed firmly on investors’ radar. Escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran helped push oil prices higher, while reports that Iran targeted U.S. military assets in Syria and Bahrain added to concerns that the conflict could spread further across the region.

Elsewhere, bond yields moved lower over the course of the week, while the dollar traded choppily.

Gold struggled to hold above the $4,000 level, and bitcoin endured another roller-coaster week but managed to finish little changed, showing surprising resilience despite the sharp selloff in technology shares.

Stepping back, this week’s market action was largely driven by a significant shift in the macro narrative.

Cooler-than-expected inflation data reduced expectations for near-term federal reserve rate hikes, weakening the dollar and prompting traders to rethink many of the trades that had worked so well earlier this year.

As one analyst put it, “everything that has worked year-to-date suddenly seems to be moving in the wrong direction.“

The question now is whether this is simply a healthy rotation beneath the surface, or the beginning of a more meaningful change in market leadership?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/16/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, July 16, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.99% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Strong Earnings Can’t Offset Chip Sell-Off As Markets Lose Ground

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks struggled to gain traction today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq coming under pressure early as a sell-off in chip stocks overshadowed an otherwise encouraging batch of earnings reports.

In fact, earnings season is off to a strong start. Of the 40 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, more than 87% have beaten expectations.

The major banks, often viewed as a barometer of overall economic health, set a positive tone earlier this week by delivering second-quarter results that comfortably topped forecasts.

The economic data painted a mixed but generally resilient picture. The U.S. consumer continues to hold up despite ongoing pricing pressures.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 208,000, better than the 218,000 economists were expecting, while retail sales matched forecasts with a 0.2% increase.

On the flip side, housing data, consumer sentiment, and pending home sales all came in softer than expected.

Elsewhere, markets kept a close eye on geopolitics and commodities. Oil initially surged following reports of intensified U.S. strikes against Iran overnight, only to give back those gains later in the session.

Despite the drama, crude has essentially gone nowhere over the past three days. The dollar bounced higher, gold fell below the $4,000 level, and bitcoin drifted lower before finding support near $64,000.

Meanwhile, the AI trade appears to be hitting a rough patch. Traders are beginning to question where the next leg of growth will come from as returns remain elusive, financing costs rise, local communities push back against data-center expansion, and power and water availability become increasingly important constraints.

Taken together, these crosscurrents could keep markets stuck in a sideways trading range until we get greater clarity on earnings, economic growth, and the future of the AI investment boom.

The question now is: will strong earnings be enough to reignite the market’s momentum, or is a longer period of consolidation ahead?

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Big Tech Takes The Wheel As Cooling Inflation Lifts Markets

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a strong start today, with Big Tech leading the charge as investors welcomed more signs that inflation continues to cool.

Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft gained around 3%, while Alphabet added more than 1%, helping lift the major indexes. Risk appetite was also supported by strength in SpaceX shares.

The market’s upbeat mood was fueled by another encouraging inflation report. June’s Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell 0.3%, following Tuesday’s cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading.

Together, the reports reinforced the view that inflation pressures may be easing, and that the Fed could have less reason to keep pushing interest rates higher.

New York Fed President John Williams added to that optimism, saying there are “encouraging reasons” to believe inflation has peaked and should continue edging lower in the coming quarters.

Even with stocks moving higher, gains were somewhat restrained as crude oil prices strengthened after renewed U.S. military action involving Iran raised geopolitical concerns.

Meanwhile, bond yields continued their recent decline, falling for a second straight day as investors dialed back expectations for additional Fed tightening.

The Mag 7 was clearly in rally mode, handily outperforming the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500.

Outside of equities, the dollar took a noticeable hit, gold marked time but managed to remain above the $4,000 level, and bitcoin surged to as high as $65,500 before giving back a small portion of those gains into the afternoon.

All in all, it was a relatively quiet day beneath the surface. The broad market remained largely range-bound, but falling inflation data pushed rate-hike expectations, bond yields, and the dollar lower.

Bitcoin enjoyed a strong rally, while the precious metals market largely stood still.

The big question now is: Will cooling inflation continue to fuel the tech-led rally, or will investors start looking beyond the Magnificent 7 for the market’s next move?

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