ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 07/11/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (235 vs. 256 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For July 11, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

TARIFF SHOCK ROCKS MARKETS, BUT SILVER AND BITCOIN SHINE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Markets stumbled out of the gate today, led by the Dow, after Trump announced a surprise 35% tariff on Canadian goods—blaming fentanyl as the reason—and warned of even steeper duties if Canada retaliates. That move reignited tariff tensions and quickly erased yesterday’s recovery.

Trump didn’t stop there. He floated the idea of raising blanket tariffs on all remaining countries to 15–20%, up from the 10% level traders had grown used to. Still hanging in the air: his next move on the European Union.

Meanwhile, U.S. macro data showed a slight uptick, but it wasn’t enough to offset the renewed trade uncertainty. All major indexes ended the day lower.

Interestingly, the “Magnificent 7” tech giants bucked the trend, gaining 1% on the week—even as the other 493 S&P stocks lost about 1%. That divergence came despite a short squeeze lifting some of the most heavily bet-against names.

Bond yields climbed, but that didn’t stop Bitcoin from blasting through its range to hit a new all-time high above $118K, fueled by strong ETF inflows and rising liquidity—something I’ve been flagging for a while.

The dollar had its best week since February, though it’s still hovering near three-year lows. Gold stayed strong, rising for the third straight day, and logging two weeks of gains, supported by its 50-day moving average.

But the real stars of the commodity space were copper and silver. Copper surged to a record high after Trump’s earlier 50% tariff announcement, and silver jumped 3.8% today—breaking above $38 for the first time since 2011.

So, is this the breakout moment traders have been waiting for?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/10/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, July 10, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.83% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Bitcoin Breaks Records While Stocks Struggle To Find Direction

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The stock market got off to a shaky start again, with early trading weighed down by ongoing tariff drama and a steady stream of tense trade talk—like Trump calling Brazil’s trade relationship “very unfair” and “far from reciprocal.”

That kind of rhetoric kept traders cautious and mostly on the sidelines.

Things picked up in the afternoon as bullish sentiment made a comeback, pushing the major indexes into the green. But a late-day pullback took some of the shine off, leaving gains looking pretty modest—despite another short squeeze.

Mega caps took a hit early on but managed to bounce back later. Bond yields ticked up slightly, oil prices dropped, and the dollar stayed flat.

The real headline-grabber? Bitcoin. It surged to a new all-time high, nearly hitting $114K intraday.

Gold also moved higher, though it couldn’t keep up with Bitcoin’s breakout. According to ZeroHedge, Bitcoin has now leapfrogged Google to become the 6th largest asset by market cap, while silver edged past Meta to grab the #8 spot.

Could this be the start of a bigger shift in the financial landscape?

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Big Tech Rallies, Bitcoin Nears Record—Is Liquidity The Real Driver?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Tech stocks took the lead today, helping the market bounce back after the Dow’s two-day slide.

Nvidia stole the spotlight—not just for its 2% gain, but for becoming the first company ever to hit a $4 trillion market cap. That’s a milestone worth pausing for.

Other big tech names like Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet joined the rally, riding the renewed wave of excitement around AI. Meanwhile, traders mostly shrugged off the latest tariff chatter.

The Fed minutes were the day’s main event, but they didn’t offer much clarity—just more of the same uncertainty.

Still, the market found its footing after a midday dip sparked by Trump’s new round of tariff letters. Dip buyers jumped in quickly, especially in the Mag7 names, where a short squeeze added some extra fuel.

Elsewhere, the dollar stayed flat while bond yields slipped. Gold clawed its way back above $3,300 after briefly dipping below that level earlier.

Copper had another solid session, up 1.6%, but Bitcoin stole the show—surging toward its all-time high of $112K and closing at its highest level ever at the end of U.S. market hours. (Of course, Bitcoin never really “closes.”)

As I’ve said before, Bitcoin seems to be moving in lockstep with global liquidity trends—and this chart backs that up.

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Copper Pops, Banks Drop: A Mixed Bag For Markets

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Yesterday’s tariff drama spilled into today’s session, leaving the markets wobbling as they tried to find their footing.

The major indexes mostly drifted sideways, with little conviction either way. President Trump once again pushed back the tariff deadline and hinted at some wiggle room for countries open to negotiating, which added to the uncertainty.

Some traders are starting to think the worst of the tariff battle might be behind us, and that the new measures may not be as harsh as originally feared. Still, doubt continues to hang over the market, keeping things sluggish.

Early gains from heavyweights like Nvidia and Tesla gave some hope, but Tesla later reversed course. Big banks like JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs also took a hit after a downgrade from HSBC, making them the day’s worst performers.

On the flip side, copper had a standout day. Thanks to Trump’s plan to slap a 50% tariff on copper imports, the metal surged over 10% before pulling back slightly. Our copper ETF still locked in a solid +8.2% gain for the day.

Elsewhere, bond yields kept climbing, gold dipped but found support around $3,300, and the dollar got a boost from those rising yields. Bitcoin bounced around but managed to close in the green.

So, here we are—stuck in a sideways market, even though we’re in what’s usually the strongest part of the year.

Will a softening in trade tensions be enough to spark a rally, or will it take some Fed magic and falling yields to get things moving again?

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