Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.
The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (219 vs. 221 current).
RECORD HIGHS CONTINUE, BUT BREADTH TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
U.S. equities got off to a strong start after a better‑than‑expected April jobs report, while traders also kept a close eye on developments between the U.S. and Iran. The positive tone carried through the session and capped off another solid week for stocks.
All three major averages finished higher, backed by a strong earnings season. Tech results in particular pushed the Nasdaq toward a roughly 3% weekly gain, while the S&P 500 is up about 2%, marking its sixth straight winning week. The Dow lagged again, but still managed a modest 0.7% gain on the week.
Friday’s strength broadened somewhat thanks to a surge in chip stocks. Micron jumped 10% and Qualcomm climbed 9%, putting Qualcomm on pace for its fourth consecutive up day and giving the broader market an extra lift.
The jobs report helped reinforce the upbeat mood. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000, easily topping expectations of 55,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. In short, the labor market continues to show resilience.
Geopolitics, however, stayed in the background. Oil prices ticked higher, with WTI hovering around $95 per barrel, after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides blaming the other for striking first.
By the close, markets not only held onto early gains but added to them. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at new record highs, supported by hopes for a U.S.–Iran peace deal, easing oil prices, and constructive macro data.
That said, leadership remains narrow. The Magnificent Seven have dramatically outperformed the S&P 493 over the past three days, but market breadth continues to deteriorate. Bond yields bounced around but ended the week roughly unchanged.
The dollar fell for the fifth time in the last six weeks, sliding to three‑month lows. Gold rebounded sharply after finding support near $4,500, snapping a two‑week losing streak.
Bitcoin rallied for a sixth straight week, though it once again stalled at its 200‑day moving average.
With an extended U.S.–Iran ceasefire, strong earnings, and macro data that still show little fallout from the conflict, traders are trying to figure out their next move — but the big question remains: how long can this rally last if leadership keeps getting narrower?
Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.96% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.
The S&P 500 pushed to a fresh all‑time intraday high early on as oil prices fell for a second straight day, fueled by hopes that the U.S. and Iran are closing in on an agreement to end the war.
The Nasdaq joined in with a new record of its own, while the Dow hovered around the flatline.
Lower oil wasn’t the only tailwind. Another batch of strong earnings helped keep sentiment upbeat. Fortinet surged 22% after raising its full‑year billings guidance, while DoorDash climbed more than 1% on optimistic second‑quarter order guidance.
That optimism built on yesterday’s rally, which followed an Axios report suggesting the White House believes it’s close to finalizing a one‑page, 14‑point memorandum of understanding with Iran. The proposed framework would not only end the war but also lay the groundwork for broader nuclear talks.
Unfortunately for bulls, the familiar headline roulette returned later in the day. News that the U.S. could restart “Project Freedom,” combined with Iran reaffirming its “uranium red lines,” knocked the major indexes off their highs and dragged them to a red close.
Even solid jobless claims data—showing no real cracks in the labor market—wasn’t enough to keep the early momentum alive.
By the close, every sector finished in the red. Energy was hit the hardest, while consumer staples were the least ugly, as ZeroHedge aptly put it.
Rising bond yields added pressure, the dollar rallied, yet gold still managed to eke out a modest gain. Bitcoin pulled back from yesterday’s highs, drifting lower before finding support around the $80,000 level.
With traders now turning their attention to tomorrow’s jobs report—and the ever‑shifting Middle East narrative—the big question is: will economic data finally take the wheel, or will geopolitics continue to call the shots?
The major indexes took off right from the opening bell after reports surfaced that the U.S. and Iran are closing in on a deal to end the war.
According to Axios, sources say both sides are nearing an agreement that could finally bring the conflict to a close.
The framework reportedly includes a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, and an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed to CNBC that Tehran is actively evaluating a U.S. proposal aimed at resolving the standoff.
Adding to the optimism, President Trump said late Tuesday that he is pausing “Project Freedom,” the U.S. plan to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing “great progress toward a complete and final agreement” in a Truth Social post.
Markets wasted no time reacting. Oil prices plunged as traders rushed to unwind war‑premium positions, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling about 5% to just above $96 per barrel.
Equities got an extra boost from earnings as well. Advanced Micro Devices surged 15% after delivering a strong first‑quarter beat and issuing an upbeat outlook for the second quarter, adding fuel to the broader tech rally.
On the macro front, the tone stayed constructive. ADP’s employment report showed the biggest monthly job gain in 14 months, reinforcing the idea that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing.
The positive momentum held into the close, with the Nasdaq leading the charge and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 notching fresh record highs. As expected, the Magnificent Seven outperformed the S&P 493, though both groups posted healthy gains.
Elsewhere, bond yields moved sideways, which pressured the dollar and allowed gold to rally sharply back toward overhead resistance.
Bitcoin briefly pushed above $83,000 overnight before fading to finish the day roughly unchanged. Its recent strength continues to be supported by hefty inflows into BTC ETFs, totaling more than $1.6 billion.
With stocks seemingly brushing off higher oil and rate risks and focusing squarely on earnings and economic data, the big question is: how long can this disconnect last before something gives?
The Nasdaq powered to a fresh record high as stocks got a lift from a pullback in oil prices and another round of strong earnings. Lower energy costs helped ease some inflation worries, giving equities room to push higher.
The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran remains fragile, with reports of new incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
Still, Defense Secretary Hegseth struck a reassuring tone, saying the ceasefire “certainly holds” and noting that two U.S. commercial ships, escorted by American destroyers, safely made their way through the strait—clear evidence that shipping lanes remain open.
That follows President Trump’s earlier comments that the U.S. would help “guide” stranded ships through the area.
Earnings once again added fuel to the rally. Pfizer edged higher after beating first‑quarter earnings and revenue expectations and reaffirming its full‑year outlook. Meanwhile, U.S.‑listed shares of Anheuser‑Busch InBev jumped 8% on the back of upbeat quarterly results.
As ZeroHedge pointed out, today’s gains also came with supportive macro and micro backdrops:
First‑quarter earnings growth is running well ahead of already lofty expectations, with analysts continuing to raise forward estimates.
On the macro side, strong exports, better‑than‑expected new home sales, a post‑COVID surge in hiring, and steady services PMIs pushed the U.S. macro surprise index higher—even if hints of stagflation still linger in the background.
Despite the Nasdaq grabbing the headlines, market leadership was broader than it looked. The S&P 493 outperformed the Magnificent Seven, and the value ETF VLUE surged more than 3.5%, underscoring continued rotation beneath the surface.
Bond yields slipped, with the 30‑year falling back below 5%, while the dollar retreated.
Gold bounced off yesterday’s $4,500 level, and Bitcoin extended its winning streak to six straight days, breaking above $81,000 for the first time since late January. ETF inflows into Bitcoin products have surged in recent sessions, adding to the momentum.
That said, a note of caution remains. Four of the last five record closes for the S&P 500 came on days when decliners outnumbered advancers—raising the question: is narrowing market breadth an early warning sign, or just noise in a still‑healthy rally?
