Record Highs, Cooler Inflation, And A Broader Rally

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks managed to grind higher today, with the S&P 500 notching another intraday record as investors welcomed a softer-than-expected inflation backdrop.

July producer prices came in cooler than forecast, reinforcing the idea that inflation pressures aren’t accelerating, even if the Fed isn’t quite ready to declare victory.

The market’s reaction was telling: bond yields initially moved lower, oil prices slid before recovering, and equities kept their footing.

By the close, the Nasdaq was again the leadership group, while the Dow trailed. Interestingly, the Mag 7 still couldn’t outshine the other 493 names in the S&P 500, a reminder that this rally has broadened beyond the usual AI superstars.

Elsewhere, the dollar finished mostly unchanged, gold slipped below $4,400, and Bitcoin found buyers around the $62,000 level after another shaky session.

As for the AI boom, today’s debate centered on whether investors are focusing on the right risks. History shows that market narratives often look much clearer in hindsight than they do in real time.

So, with inflation allegedly behaving, the broad market holding up, and leadership continuing to expand, is the next leg higher going to come from the forgotten stocks rather than the market’s biggest celebrities?

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CPI Cooperates, Gold Glitters, Markets Shrug

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks got an early boost from a friendly inflation report, with July CPI coming in right on cue and reinforcing the view that the Fed can afford to stay on the sidelines for now.

AI favorites like CoreWeave and Super Micro helped lead the charge, but the broader market’s reaction was surprisingly muted.

What really stood out was the lack of enthusiasm. Cooling inflation and softer growth data should have been prime fuel for the bulls, yet the Magnificent Seven largely sat this one out while the other 493 S&P stocks did most of the heavy lifting.

Bond yields initially fell, then reversed course, and the dollar took investors on a roller-coaster ride before ending near where it started.

Gold, meanwhile, couldn’t care less about the dollar’s gymnastics, quietly climbing above $4,400, while Bitcoin spent the day practicing its zigzags.

With another inflation report arriving tomorrow (PPI), the market seems comfortable for now, but is that confidence justified, or are investors about to get a reminder that the Fed story isn’t finished yet?

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Wall Street Hits The Pause Button Ahead Of A Critical Inflation Week

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Today’s market action was a reminder that headlines still matter. The S&P 500 lost ground as optimism about a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded, pushing oil prices higher and putting pressure on stocks, especially some of the market’s biggest technology names.

Communication services and technology led the retreat, with Alphabet, AppLovin, Apple, and even Nvidia struggling to find traction.

Interestingly, Nvidia couldn’t hold onto its gains despite announcing a massive AI infrastructure initiative, suggesting investors may be more focused on near-term risks than long-term opportunities.

Meanwhile, bonds seemed less concerned, with yields slipping, while the dollar was little changed. Gold and Bitcoin both eased back as traders took a cautious stance ahead of this week’s inflation reports.

At this point, the market feels like it’s caught between two worries: higher oil prices on one side and a slowing economy on the other.

With CPI tomorrow and PPI on Thursday, traders are about to find out whether inflation is cooling enough to comfort the Fed, or whether the latest energy spike throws another wrench into the outlook.

So, the question is: will the inflation data give stocks a reason to rally, or simply provide the market with a fresh set of worries?

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Silver Shines While Markets Search For Their Next Catalyst

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Markets spent most of the day waiting for clarity on the Iran situation and, unfortunately, clarity never showed up for work.

Growing doubts about a near-term U.S.-Iran breakthrough kept investors cautious, while higher oil prices took center stage. With WTI crude jumping about 5% to $82, bond yields moved higher and risk appetite cooled.

The major indexes drifted lower as the recent short-covering rally appeared to run out of fuel.

Meanwhile, precious metals continued to attract attention. Gold pushed back above $4,350 despite a stronger dollar, while silver stole the spotlight with a gain of more than 3%.

Bitcoin was the outlier, slipping modestly below $64,000.

In the end, it felt like one of those market days where everyone was waiting for the next headline, and nobody wanted to make the first big move.

Until a new catalyst emerges, we may be stuck in a holding pattern.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/07/2026

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Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (217 vs. 229 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 7, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

STOCKS CLIMB, GOLD SHINES, AND THE FED GETS BREATHING ROOM

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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This morning, the market pulled off one of its favorite tricks: bad economic news turned into good market news.

July’s jobs report was much weaker than expected, with payrolls actually shrinking and prior months revised sharply lower.

While that’s not exactly a cause for celebration on Main Street, Wall Street saw it as a sign the Fed can stay on the sidelines rather than reach for another rate hike.

That shift in expectations sent bond yields lower and helped push stocks higher, with software shares leading the charge.

Precious metals stole the show for the week, though. Gold posted its strongest weekly gain in seven months, silver sprinted ahead with a 10% jump, and even Bitcoin joined the risk-on mood by climbing back above $65,000.

The big debate now is what comes next: does sticky inflation keep yields elevated, or does a cooling economy ultimately pull them lower?

That’s the tug-of-war bond investors are wrestling with today. So, if you had to pick a side right now, would you bet on inflation or slowing growth?

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