Silver Leads Commodities, Gold Nears $5,100 – Risk-On Returns

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

After a weak open, the major indexes shook off the early blues and found solid footing, heading into positive territory for a nice green close.

Traders were mostly focused on waiting for big upcoming data (delayed January jobs report Wednesday) and another wave of earnings, following last week’s volatility.

Oracle jumped 8% after getting upgraded to Buy on fresh optimism around OpenAI and its ecosystem beneficiaries. Fellow chip names kept the momentum going too—Nvidia and Broadcom each extended Friday’s gains, up almost 3% and more than 1%, respectively.

The delayed January jobs report (pushed back by the government shutdown) is due Wednesday, with economists expecting around +55,000 nonfarm payrolls after last week’s weak ADP print of just +22,000.

Friday brings the January CPI, with consensus looking for a 2.5% annual rate.

It turned into a classic “buy everything” kind of day—small caps outperformed, Big Tech held strong, the Dow clung to its 50,000 level, and the Mag 7 actually outperformed the rest of the S&P 493 for a change.

Most shorted stocks kept Friday’s ramp alive (now up 11% over two days), and US Growth beat US Value for the second straight session.

Bond yields slipped, the dollar continued Friday’s sell-off, but commodities stayed firm—silver led again, gold nearly recaptured $5,100, and Bitcoin chopped around before climbing back above $71K.

With the Nasdaq staying strong, metals continuing to lead, and the international TTI pulling ahead, this feels like a healthy broadening of the rally across regions and asset classes.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 02/06/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (272 vs. 268 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For February 6, 2026

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

LATE PANIC-BID SAVES THE WEEK – S&P FLAT AFTER ROLLERCOASTER

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The Dow surged 1,200 points (about 2.5%) and blasted through 50,000 for the first time ever, flipping positive for the week. The S&P 500 jumped 2%, the Nasdaq added 2.2%, and the S&P clawed its way back into the green for 2026 overall.

Nvidia and Broadcom were two of the big winners, each up 7% after getting crushed earlier in the week. Oracle, Palantir, and other beaten-down names bounced too as traders started scooping up cheaper levels.

The vibe felt like a “great recalibration” in progress—money rotating out of high-growth tech into value and cyclical areas (industrials, financials, etc.).

Value massively outperformed growth this week, with the Mag 7 underperforming the S&P 493 by a wide margin. Microsoft is now down 30% from its all-time high.

Bitcoin staged a monster rebound, climbing 11% to get back above $70,000 after briefly tanking below $61,000 overnight (more than 52% off its October 2025 record of $126,000).

Precious metals recovered too, though silver lagged for the week. Gold pushed toward $5,000 again but came up short.

Bond yields ended the week lower (rate-cut expectations soared on weak labor data and the puking in stocks), and the dollar finally turned higher.

A late-day panic-bid (possibly sparked by Fed’s Daly saying 1–2 more rate cuts may be needed) helped lift the S&P to flat on the week.

With the Dow smashing 50,000, tech bouncing hard, value leading the charge, and Bitcoin clawing back big, does this feel like the market’s shaking off the mid-February slump early and setting up for more upside?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/05/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, February 5, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.78% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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No Recovery In Sight – Bears Take Full Control

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the market

Markets opened weak and never really recovered—the bears were in full control, driving a sharp, one-sided selloff across almost everything.

The major indexes dove lower, with tech getting hit especially hard and Bitcoin sinking toward $65,000 (after briefly dipping below $70,000, a level many saw as key support).

The trigger was Alphabet’s earnings: they projected a big jump in AI spending (up to $185 billion in capex for 2026), which spooked some investors who want to see revenue growth catch up first. Shares fell 5%.

Broadcom bucked the trend and jumped almost 2% on the spending news (hope for chip suppliers), but most of the AI crew felt the pain. Qualcomm slid 7% on a weaker forecast tied to a global memory shortage.

The selloff spilled into software (now in its 8th straight down day) and precious metals.

Silver crashed as much as 19% overnight (after liquidation in Shanghai flowed into U.S. markets), while gold briefly touched $5,000 before losing it.

The dollar extended yesterday’s gains, bond yields dropped, and the whole move had the fingerprints of margin calls and forced deleveraging—Bitcoin being the easiest 24/7 asset to liquidate.

In the end, it was a violent, red-dominated day with no late recovery in sight. Breadth was ugly—only about 200 S&P 500 names stayed green.

When even the metals sell off and the bears dominate a day like this, this feels like a normal, healthy breather after a strong run… but I am wondering if the pullback might have a little more room to run before the bullish crowd steps back in?

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Silver +3%, Gold Back Above $5,000 – Metals Hold Firm

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 opened pretty flat while traders kept rotating out of tech stocks, sending the Nasdaq sharply lower.

The main trigger was AMD sliding 14% after its Q1 forecast came in softer than some analysts hoped, which piled more pressure on the sector. Broadcom dipped 3%, Micron fell 8%, and the rest of the chip/AI crowd followed suit.

ADP’s private payrolls report for January came in weak—just +22,000 jobs added vs. the +45,000 economists expected.

That added to the cautious mood, though the official nonfarm payrolls number won’t drop this week due to the partial government shutdown (which ended Tuesday when Trump signed the funding bill).

All eyes are now on Alphabet (reporting after the bell today) and Amazon (Thursday).

The Mag 7 underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 again, and growth stocks in general got outsold by value names.

Bond yields were mixed (long end up, short end down), the dollar clawed back yesterday’s losses, and crypto kept bleeding—Bitcoin hit a new low around $72K after bouncing briefly.

On the bright side, precious metals held up nicely: gold climbed back above $5,000 (though it couldn’t hold), and silver eked out almost a 3% gain.

With tech continuing to lag, value and small caps picking up the slack, and our TTIs still advancing, does this feel like a healthy broadening of the rally into more stable areas… or are you starting to think the growth/tech side needs a real spark to keep the overall bull intact?

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