Jawboning Continues, Markets Wait For Something Real

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes slipped early as stalled peace talks with Iran and a fresh escalation in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, keeping geopolitical tensions front and center heading into an important week.

Over the weekend, President Trump scrapped plans to send U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for ceasefire talks related to Iran, saying negotiations could just as easily happen by phone.

“Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards; they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!”

Iran, for its part, showed little urgency. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said no meeting between Tehran and Washington is currently planned.

That said, an Axios report suggested Iran has floated a new proposal to the U.S. that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while pushing nuclear talks to a later date.

So, the jawboning continues, leaving markets stuck in limbo until something concrete and verifiable actually materializes—whenever that may be.

As a result, markets mostly spun their wheels. Oil prices moved higher, bond yields climbed, and the dollar slipped.

If there was a highlight, it was the Magnificent Seven outperforming the rest of the market, beating the S&P 493 on the day.

Gold didn’t get much help from the weaker dollar and slid below $4,700, while Bitcoin pulled back sharply from its recent high of $79,500 to around $76,500.

With headlines driving sentiment and real progress still elusive, the question remains: how long can markets stay patient before uncertainty starts to bite harder?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 04/24/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (245 vs. 228 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For April 24, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

OPTIMISM WINS THE DAY AS TECH AND INTEL STEAL THE SHOW

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The tech sector led the way this morning after traders got a hopeful signal that peace talks between the U.S. and Iran could soon take place in Pakistan.

Reports cited a Pakistani government official saying Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad on Friday evening, raising expectations that negotiations between the two sides may follow.

Oil prices, which had been rallying, lost some steam on the news.

That optimism comes on the heels of President Trump’s announcement Thursday that Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their ceasefire by another three weeks, following meetings at the White House with senior U.S. officials.

Taken together, the headlines reinforced the idea—at least for now—that tensions may be cooling rather than escalating.

Given Thursday’s pullback from all‑time highs in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, Middle East developments are clearly still capable of moving markets. Even so, traders are trying to look past the geopolitical noise and refocus on corporate earnings.

Today, optimism won out. Stocks surged to fresh record highs as markets latched onto a new wave of “promising” headlines from the U.S., largely brushing aside Iran’s more cautious responses.

Earnings also played a major role. Intel delivered a blowout report, sending its stock up as much as 28% at one point—the biggest one‑day move since Black Monday in 1987—before settling back to a still‑impressive 21% gain. Along the way, Intel surpassed its prior record high from the peak of the dot‑com bubble.

In other markets, bond yields fell after a Justice Department decision involving Powell appeared to clear a path for Kevin Warsh to become the next Fed chair, prompting traders to boost bets on future rate cuts.

Gold and silver ETFs moved modestly higher, while copper and Bitcoin largely treaded water.

With Middle East headlines still in play and next week shaping up as the busiest stretch of earnings season—with 36% of the S&P 500 reporting—traders now face a familiar question:

Can strong earnings and hopes of de‑escalation keep this rally going, or are markets getting ahead of themselves?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/23/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, April 23, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.96% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Records Early, Reality Later: Markets Weigh Risk And Reward

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The S&P 500 briefly touched a fresh record high early in the session, riding the momentum of semiconductor stocks extending their longest winning streak on record.

That early strength didn’t fully carry through the day, though, as the broader market turned mixed, and traders weighed the latest developments out of the Middle East.

Geopolitics stayed front and center after President Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” laying mines in the Strait, stressing there should be “no hesitation” in a Truth Social post.

The comments followed earlier remarks this week in which Trump said extending the ceasefire made sense given Iran’s government was “seriously fractured.” The mixed messaging kept investors cautious.

Earnings added another layer of volatility. IBM slid 8% and ServiceNow dropped 17% after their reports disappointed investors. On the flip side, United Rentals stole the spotlight, surging 20% and earning the title of best performer in the S&P 500 for the day.

At this stage, stocks appear to be searching for stable footing after an impressive rebound off the March lows.

Markets seem less reactive to every Iran‑related headline and more focused on earnings, fundamentals, and the path of Federal Reserve policy. Still, there’s only so long investors can tune out geopolitical risks before they start to matter again.

By the close, there were few clear winners. Value stocks were the lone bright spot, while the metals complex retreated, and Bitcoin slipped back from the $79,000 level.

Adding to the uncertainty, rumors that Iran’s parliamentary speaker resigned from the negotiating team sparked fears that the Revolutionary Guard may be tightening its grip. Disarray best describes the situation—and markets didn’t love it.

So, the question remains: are investors right to look past the headlines, or is geopolitics about to force its way back into the driver’s seat?

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Tech Takes Charge As Markets Look Past The Noise

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks pushed higher early after President Trump announced an extension of the U.S. ceasefire with Iran, and a solid batch of earnings reports helped keep sentiment upbeat.

The move gave markets a sense of breathing room, even if the situation remains far from resolved.

Shortly after Tuesday’s close, Trump said he would extend the ceasefire, citing Iran’s “seriously fractured” government as a reason to allow more time for negotiations.

At the same time, he emphasized that the U.S. military would maintain its blockade and remain fully prepared should talks fail. In other words, diplomacy stays on the table—but the pressure hasn’t gone anywhere.

That said, the timeline still looks shaky. Reports suggest Vice President JD Vance paused plans to join peace talks after Tehran failed to show meaningful commitment. Iranian state media added to the uncertainty, quoting negotiators who dismissed talks with the U.S. as a “waste of time.”

So yes, the jawboning continues, and likely will for a while. Still, markets seem to be focusing on the broader takeaway: despite the noise, the path appears more de‑escalatory than not.

Beyond geopolitics, earnings season is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Boeing shares climbed more than 4% after reporting a smaller‑than‑expected first‑quarter loss, while GE Vernova jumped 10% on stronger‑than‑expected revenue.

So far, more than 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten expectations—a strong start by any measure.

By the close, tech was once again in the driver’s seat, pushing both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs. Rising oil prices were largely shrugged off, as confidence in earnings outweighed concerns about narrow market breadth.

The Magnificent Seven handily outperformed the rest of the index, moving back into the green for the week.

Bond yields were mixed, the dollar strengthened, gold posted modest gains, and Bitcoin continued to march higher, breaking above $79,000 for the first time since February 2.

As ZeroHedge put it, if markets believe a resolution is likely in the coming months, even meaningful near‑term economic damage may not derail equities or other long‑duration assets.

The real question is: how long can that conviction hold if progress on the diplomatic front continues to stall?

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