Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.
The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (223 vs. 229 current).
GOLD GLITTERS, BITCOIN ROARS, AND JACKSON HOLE AWAITS
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
Stocks managed to bounce today as traders looked for bargains after this week’s sharp sell-off, which was fueled largely by rising Treasury yields.
Financial stocks helped lead the recovery, while crypto-related names caught a strong tailwind as bitcoin marched toward a weekly gain of more than 20%.
The bond market remains the main story. Long-term Treasury yields continued climbing as investors wrestled with inflation concerns tied to higher oil prices.
The Treasury’s recent buyback program may have changed the mix of debt in investors’ hands, but it did little to address the bigger issue: the sheer amount of government debt the market still needs to absorb.
The pressure wasn’t limited to U.S. markets. Global stocks also struggled this week, while oil prices continued drifting higher amid Gulf supply concerns and ongoing stress in diesel and refining markets.
Even with today’s rebound, the major indexes couldn’t fully escape the week’s damage. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their first weekly declines since late July, while the Dow logged its weakest week since March.
Meanwhile, the dollar slipped as yields rose, giving precious metals another reason to shine. Gold blasted through the $4,600 level, while silver stole the show with a gain of more than 7% for the week.
But the undisputed star of the week was bitcoin. The digital heavyweight surged more than 20%, briefly flirting with $80,000 as ETF inflows accelerated and short sellers were squeezed harder than a tube of toothpaste at the end of the month.
Now all eyes turn to Jackson Hole next week. Will investors remain in a risk-off mood, or can Fed Chair Warsh deliver the reassurance needed to get bullish spirits back on track?
ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 20, 2026
How to use this StatSheet:
Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +9.43% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.
Stocks spent most of the day on the defensive as bond yields resumed their climb and oil prices pushed higher.
Yesterday’s Treasury buyback announcement briefly calmed the bond market, but that optimism faded quickly, with long-term yields giving back those gains and reminding investors that deficits and borrowing needs remain front and center.
Adding to the pressure, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions helped lift crude prices, while Walmart’s disappointing outlook weighed on sentiment. The result was another red close for the major indexes.
The brighter story was outside of equities.
Gold extended its breakout above its 200-day moving average and climbed past $4,500, silver added a solid 2.75%, and Bitcoin stole the show with a jump of more than 6% toward $73,000.
Markets may be starting to price in the possibility that more debt, more spending, and eventually more inflation are still ahead.
As for yesterday’s much-hyped Treasury buyback boost, it appears the bond market’s verdict was short and sweet: “Nice try, what’s next?“
So, are gold and Bitcoin simply enjoying a good week, or are they sending us an early warning about the inflation story still to come?
Today’s market move came down to one thing: the Treasury’s decision to significantly expand its buyback program for longer-term debt. That helped push long-term yields lower, and stocks responded with modest gains, led by small caps.
The bigger story, though, was the message the market seemed to take from it.
As the Treasury steps more aggressively into the bond market while federal debt approaches $40 trillion and foreign demand remains softer, investors quickly gravitated toward traditional inflation hedges.
Gold and silver surged more than 3%, and Bitcoin stole the show with a nearly 6% rally.
A weaker dollar added fuel to the fire, helping gold approach the $4,500 level while Bitcoin enjoyed its strongest session in months.
As BlackRock has noted, Bitcoin’s investment case increasingly resembles gold’s: a potential hedge against inflation, monetary uncertainty, and eroding confidence in fiat currencies.
For now, markets are celebrating lower yields and easier financial conditions. The bigger question is whether today’s rally marks the start of a new bullish cycle, or just the opening act of a much larger inflation story?
Today was a reminder that interest rates still matter, even in a market that’s been happily distracted by AI for much of the year.
Global bond yields pushed to levels not seen in years, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury hovering around 5.3% and long-term rates climbing across Japan and Europe. That’s the kind of move that eventually gets traders’ attention.
Stocks finally took notice. The S&P 500 slipped, pressured by higher yields, firmer oil prices, and weakness in semiconductor shares.
The AI crowd, which has largely ignored the rate story, led much of the retreat.
Meanwhile, gold lost its shine, the dollar was little changed, and Bitcoin somehow found its way back toward $65,000, apparently following its well-known strategy of doing the unexpected.
The bigger issue is that markets are still focused on where rates may end up, not where they’re starting from. If bond yields keep climbing, that could become a much stronger headwind for both stocks and bonds.
The “soft landing” narrative remains alive, but it’s looking a little less comfortable in the aisle seat.
Is the market finally waking up to the reality of higher-for-longer rates?
