[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Stocks started the day on the defensive as stubbornly high Treasury yields and another spike in oil kept investors on edge. The 10-year hovered around 5.28%, while crude jumped roughly 4% to about $104 as Middle East tensions intensified.

That’s not exactly the recipe the Fed ordered for bringing inflation back under control.

Rate-sensitive areas like banks and technology bore the brunt of the pressure, but the real damage came in the Nasdaq after disappointing reports about OpenAI’s revenues triggered another round of selling across tech and AI stocks.

Apparently, even artificial intelligence isn’t immune to very human expectations.

The bigger issue remains oil. Higher energy prices feed inflation, squeeze consumers, and make it harder for the Fed to ease up.

A meaningful drop in crude could quickly take some pressure off yields and stocks, but until geopolitical tensions cool, that remains a big “if.”

Elsewhere, the dollar went on a wild intraday ride but finished little changed, gold eked out a gain, and Bitcoin tumbled before finding support around $80,000.

For now, markets seem stuck between strong earnings hopes and the increasingly heavy weight of high oil prices and high real rates.

The question is: can earnings remain strong enough to pull stocks through this economic tug-of-war?

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Stocks came under pressure early as the bond selloff intensified, sending the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.3% and putting both financials and technology on the defensive.

Rising oil prices added another wrinkle, reviving concerns that inflation could stay stubborn and keep rates higher for longer.

The mood improved after the $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction came in better than expected. Yields backed off their highs and stocks followed, with tech doing most of the heavy lifting as the major indexes clawed their way back from the day’s lows.

Metals never got the memo and remained weak throughout the session, while Bitcoin stumbled early before finding some support around the $83,000 area.

Bottom line, the market’s record-setting run finally encountered a little resistance as higher oil prices and stubbornly high yields reminded investors that interest rates haven’t left the building just yet.

Was today simply a healthy breather, or are the bond vigilantes getting ready for an encore?

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 notched another fresh intraday high this morning, with tech once again doing much of the heavy lifting. Chipmakers led the charge, with Marvell jumping 7% while Nvidia and Broadcom added about 1% each.

Stocks also got some help from the bond and energy markets. Treasury yields backed off recent highs, with the 10-year slipping to 5.29%, while oil prices retreated, giving investors a little breathing room after their recent runs.

The dollar eased as well, lending support to gold. Bitcoin made an attempt at joining the party but couldn’t hold the rally and finished roughly unchanged. Apparently, not everyone got the bullish memo.

Next up are Wednesday’s Fed minutes, which could offer more clues on the thinking behind September’s rate hike.

Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns remain in the background, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries offsetting some of the recovery in Middle East product exports.

For now, the bulls still have the upper hand, but with earnings season approaching, can corporate results keep them running, or will high rates and geopolitical risks finally slow the charge?