Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.
The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (223 vs. 217 current).
AI JITTERS SHAKE GLOBAL MARKETS AS TECH SELLOFF PICKS UP SPEED
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
The S&P 500 started the session pretty flat, but the tone quickly shifted as concerns around AI spending picked up steam.
Reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO raised eyebrows, especially since it hints at slower access to capital — and potentially less aggressive infrastructure spending going forward.
That uncertainty spilled over into the broader tech space, where selling pressure really started to build. The hit was felt globally, but Asia took it the hardest.
SoftBank, a major OpenAI backer, led the slide with a sharp 12% drop. South Korea wasn’t spared either, with the Kospi tumbling nearly 6% and the Kosdaq falling about 4% as the tech rout spread across the region.
Europe followed suit, with major indices finishing lower as the global tech selloff deepened.
Adding to the uneasy mood, shifting expectations around Fed policy — not just what they might do next, but why — have created a backdrop that feels ripe for ongoing volatility.
That said, it’s not all gloom. Better-than-expected consumer sentiment and a more favorable inflation outlook offered a bit of support and helped steady nerves somewhat.
Zooming out, the market story this year is more nuanced than it might seem. While mega-cap tech has had a strong run, the equal-weighted S&P 500 is actually outperforming — a sign that gains have been broader than just the usual big names.
For the week, oil took a hit but showed signs of life with some late volatility. The Nasdaq dropped about 4%, weighed down heavily by sharp losses in the Mag 7, while the Dow and Russell 2000 held up better. Bond yields moved lower across the board, while the dollar pushed higher overall despite some recent softness.
In other corners, Bitcoin slipped below $60K and is now testing key support levels from early June, while gold continues to hover near the $4,000 mark.
One thing to keep in mind: this market is increasingly being driven by leverage. A lot of the recent upside — especially in AI-linked names — came from aggressive positioning through options and leveraged ETFs.
That works great on the way up, but it can just as quickly amplify the downside when sentiment shifts.
My big question is: if enthusiasm around AI starts to cool, how much of this market strength can actually hold up?
Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.02% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.
Thursday’s session had a bit of a split personality. The Nasdaq slid lower despite a monster earnings report from Micron (+14%), as traders rotated out of some of the big-name tech winners.
Meanwhile, the Dow held up much better, even pushing to a new intraday all-time high thanks to strength in non-AI stocks.
Big Tech was clearly under pressure. Apple dragged on the Nasdaq, dropping 5% after announcing price hikes on MacBooks and iPads due to rising chip and component costs.
Microsoft didn’t help either, falling nearly 4% after revealing price increases for Xbox consoles. The recent leadership from the “Magnificent 7” continues to fade, at least for now.
On the inflation front, May’s PCE report came in pretty much as expected. Headline inflation rose 0.4% for the month and 4.1% year-over-year, while core PCE printed at 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annually.
Even though core inflation hit its highest level since October 2023, markets seemed relieved it didn’t come in hotter—especially given rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions.
Macro data overall leaned positive. Income and spending both increased, though the savings rate dipped. GDP revisions came in stronger than expected, even as consumption slowed amid heavy AI-driven investment.
Jobless claims fell, though continuing claims ticked higher. Durable goods orders were still weak, but better than feared, with ex-transportation numbers showing solid improvement. Manufacturing data out of Kansas City also surprised to the upside, hitting multi-year highs.
By the close, the Nasdaq remained modestly in the red, while the Dow and S&P 500 hovered around flat as oil prices rebounded.
Bonds were volatile—yields fell early before climbing back later in the day. The dollar finally paused after a six-day streak higher, giving gold a boost as it reclaimed the $4,000 level. Bitcoin also slipped, pushing back below $60K.
All in all, it was another choppy session across asset classes, with big swings hitting both tech stocks and crypto hardest.
Add in fresh uncertainty around potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and it’s no surprise traders are getting a bit jittery.
So, the big question remains: is this just a temporary rotation out of Big Tech—or the start of a more meaningful shift in market leadership?
The major indexes started the morning on the upswing, helped by falling oil prices and some cautious optimism ahead of Micron’s earnings after the close.
Energy stocks, however, didn’t share in the upbeat start. Big names like Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips each dropped more than 2%, while SLB fell over 3%. The broader energy ETF (XLE) was down nearly 2%, reflecting the pressure across the sector.
In tech, Micron slipped about 1% heading into its report, with peer Sandisk also edging lower. Both stocks are still recovering from a brutal 13% drop in the prior session.
This follows Tuesday’s tech-led selloff that dragged down both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Many traders are viewing this pullback as a healthy reset after a strong run, especially with valuations stretched and earnings expectations running high.
With earnings season picking up again in July, the bar for tech companies may be tougher to clear than investors would like.
Just like yesterday, the Nasdaq led the downside move, while the Dow managed to squeeze out a modest gain. The Mag 7 once again lagged the broader market, adding to the pressure.
Elsewhere, oil continued to retreat, with WTI falling back toward the $70 level—its lowest since the U.S.-Iran conflict began—as supply conditions appear to be improving faster than expected.
Bond yields eased, but the dollar kept climbing, hitting its highest level in 13 months. Gold dipped below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025 before closing just above that level, while Bitcoin took a hit as well, briefly dropping below $60K and testing support at its June lows.
Despite the ongoing correction in metals, one interesting development stands out: China imported 163 tons of gold in May—the highest level in over two years.
Which raises an intriguing question: Why is China buying aggressively while U.S. investors seem to be heading for the exits?
Stocks came under pressure right out of the gate as a tech sell-off from the previous session gained momentum overnight. Weakness in Asia set the tone, with memory chip stocks getting hit hard and dragging global markets lower.
The Nasdaq took the biggest hit, falling 1.3% on Monday, weighed down largely by Alphabet. Selling pressure then spread across the globe, with South Korea’s Kospi leading the decline as chip-related names got routed.
That weakness carried into U.S. trading. Micron dropped 10%, Sandisk slid 12%, and Seagate lost more than 7%. Intel was off 3%, while AMD and Qualcomm fell 5% and 9%, respectively. Alphabet continued to struggle after Monday’s 5% drop, as concerns linger about key AI talent leaving the company.
By the close, what started as a regional tech sell-off turned into a broader hit to U.S. big tech, with the Nasdaq leading losses while the Dow managed to finish roughly flat.
On the macro side, the data didn’t do the market any favors. Philly Fed Services and manufacturing/business conditions came in weak, though the U.S. PMI surprised to the upside, hitting a five-month high thanks to stronger manufacturing and some easing in price pressures.
Elsewhere, slightly lower oil prices added to the cautious mood, and interestingly, the “S&P 493” actually underperformed the Mag 7—a reversal of the usual trend.
Bond yields edged lower, the dollar continued to climb, and that combination weighed on precious metals, with silver taking the biggest hit. Gold managed to hold near $4,100, while Bitcoin hung onto the $62K level—for now.
At the end of the day, there really wasn’t much of a safe haven, leaving traders on edge and wondering how equities might react if the Fed follows through with potential rate hikes in September and December, especially with inflation still showing signs of stickiness.
So, the question is: are we just seeing a temporary shakeout in tech, or is this the start of a bigger reset for the market?
