Iran Tensions Spike Oil – Stocks Tank Early, Then Trim Losses

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

U.S. stocks got slammed right out of the gate, wiping out Monday’s comeback as oil prices spiked again and traders started fretting that the U.S.-Iran conflict could drag on longer than expected.

The Dow was down about 1,200 points (around 2.5%) at one point, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each slipped roughly 2.2%.

Brent crude topped $84 a barrel (up 8% today after Monday’s 6% jump), fueled by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commander announcing the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil transit route—is now closed, with threats to torch any ships trying to pass.

Other weekend developments added fuel to the fire: U.S. embassy in Riyadh hit by drones, Tehran-backed Hezbollah launching missiles and drones at Tel Aviv, and growing worries about how long Gulf states like the UAE can hold off Iran’s barrage with air defenses.

The energy surge pushed Treasury yields higher on fears of inflation flaring back up—just as investors had been counting on more Fed rate cuts.

Tech stocks, which had powered Monday’s intraday bounce, got hit again—Nvidia and Broadcom each down around 2%. There were few places to hide; gold, silver, and crypto all sold off after Monday’s gains.

By the close, early losses had been trimmed quite a bit after President Trump floated the idea of helping oil tankers get insurance or escorts through the Strait of Hormuz if needed.

That eased some supply panic, pulling oil off its highs for now. The dollar spiked, gold gagged down to $5,000 before bouncing back, and Bitcoin rode its usual roller coaster but ended roughly unchanged since Friday.

With traders stressed and markets feeling fragile, all eyes are now on Friday’s jobs report—it could swing direction big time.

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Gold +2%, Vix Surges – Safe-Havens Shine Amid Conflict Fears

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks tanked early after the weekend news of U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran, spiking oil prices and adding Middle East instability to the growing list of investor worries.

The major averages hit session lows hard—the Dow was down about 600 points at one point—but rallied back thanks to gains in tech like Nvidia and Microsoft.

Gold futures surged almost 2% as a safe-haven play, and the VIX (Wall Street’s fear gauge) jumped to its highest levels of 2026 so far.

President Trump told CNBC’s Joe Kernen that U.S. operations in Iran are “ahead of schedule,” but traders are still jittery about a prolonged conflict. U.S. crude climbed almost 8% on fears of supply disruptions—Iran’s the fourth-largest OPEC producer, after all.

By the close, the indexes had bounced impressively: the Dow and S&P 500 basically broke even, while the Nasdaq eked out a modest green finish.

A big short squeeze off the lows helped small caps score a winning session, and the Mag 7 even outperformed the rest of the S&P 493 for a change.

Bond yields surged (10-year back above 4%), the dollar hit 1-month highs, Bitcoin tested $70k but closed below it, gold soared to $5,350, and silver bounced early but ended flat.

Right now, there are more questions than answers, but a stabilizing energy picture could ripple positively, while fears of longer-term disruption might do the opposite.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 02/27/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (272 vs. 264 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For February 27, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

CHOPPY MONTH WRAPS – PRECIOUS METALS OUTSHINE EQUITIES AGAIN

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started the day soft and never really found their footing, closing out the month with another red session.

The major indexes all finished lower for February amid growing worries about AI’s impact on specific industries (and the broader economy).

The Mag 7 massively underperformed the rest of the S&P 493, with tech names like Nvidia extending its post-earnings slide (down another 2% today after a 5%+ drop yesterday) as traders question the sustainability of hyperscalers’ huge AI capex.

The latest PPI (wholesale inflation) came in hotter than expected — headline up 0.5% MoM (vs. 0.3% forecast) and core up 0.8% (vs. 0.3% expected).

That added to sticky inflation concerns and offset last week’s strong payrolls data. Markets had hoped for a Goldilocks setup, but instead we got upside inflation surprises and downside growth surprises, pushing rate-cut expectations higher.

Bond yields tumbled (10-year below 4% for the first time since October), and the dollar ended the month flat.

The real heroes again? Precious metals. Gold gained 7.4% for February (now up seven months in a row), and silver added 9.8% (extending its winning streak to 10 months straight, despite a brutal 20%+ mid-month drop).

Those gains helped our portfolios close out another positive month despite the equity weakness.

Bitcoin wasn’t so lucky—it fell for its fifth straight month.

Hard-asset demand keeps pushing that space higher while equity and credit volatility creates chaos, making tech feel like the riskiest spot right now.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/26/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, February 26, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.76% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Nvidia Beats Big, Then Dumps 5% – Classic Sell-The-News Day

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks opened lower and stayed under pressure for most of the day, even after Nvidia and Salesforce dropped their latest earnings.

The big disappointment was Nvidia—despite beating on both earnings and revenue, shares got pumped early then dumped about 5%, putting it on track for its worst day since April.

Traders basically shrugged off the numbers and took profits. Other chip names followed suit: Broadcom, Lam Research, Western Digital, and Applied Materials all fell more than 6%.

Salesforce bucked the trend a bit, rising 2% after beating on both top and bottom lines, but it wasn’t enough to lift the broader tech sector.

The weakness ties back to ongoing fragility in software and cybersecurity—investors are still nervous about AI tools potentially disrupting incumbent vendors’ businesses. The Mag 7 were a big drag again, but the rest of the S&P 493 held roughly flat.

In the end, only the Dow and small caps managed small green closes—the Nasdaq was the day’s biggest loser.

Bond yields eased (pushing rate-cut expectations higher), the dollar gained overall despite a late sell-off, and the metals were mixed: spot gold chopped between $5,150 and $5,200 but the gold ETF closed green, silver eked out a gain, and Bitcoin followed tech lower before bouncing back to $68k.

Today’s big question: why did Nvidia underperform after such a strong beat? Simple answer—classic “sell the news” profit-taking.

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