ETF Tracker Newsletter For April 17, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

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IRAN REOPENS STRAIT – STOCKS ROCKET HIGHER ON CEASEFIRE HOPES

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks rocketed higher on Friday after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” following a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon. The news removed a major supply disruption fear and sent oil prices tumbling.

West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 14% to around $80 a barrel, while Brent fell 13% to about $86.

President Trump thanked Iran for reopening the strait and said the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports will stay in place until a full peace agreement is reached, adding that the process “should go very quickly.”

Despite some confusing and conflicting headlines, traders didn’t care — they pushed stocks, gold, and Bitcoin sharply higher. Rate-cut odds also improved.

The Nasdaq 100 extended its winning streak to 13 straight days (its longest since July 2013).

Since the war began, stocks have massively outperformed bonds, though breadth remains weak. The Mag 7 showed strength again, and small caps joined the party.

Bond yields dropped, the dollar fell for the third week in a row, gold spiked toward $4,900, silver outperformed, and Bitcoin surged above $78K for the first time since early February — solidly outperforming gold since the conflict started.

To me, the big question now is whether this jawboning and relentless headline ping-pong can actually turn into a sustainable truce, so today’s advances aren’t wiped out by the next sudden jerk.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/16/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, April 16, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.32% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Stocks Rebound Strongly – Iran Deal Optimism Fuels Gains

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped after hitting fresh record highs earlier in the session, but they recovered nicely by the close.

Both indexes are on track for a strong week, with the S&P up about 3% and the Nasdaq gaining more than 4%, while the Dow is up around 1%.

Milestones were hit on Wednesday: The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time ever, and the Nasdaq closed above 24,000 for the first time.

The lift came after President Trump said the Iran war is “very close to over” and announced upcoming talks between Israel and Lebanon. Halting attacks on Lebanon has been a key condition for broader Iran negotiations.

Stocks have now fully recovered all losses since the war began in late February.

We’re basically back to where we were valuation-wise and sentiment-wise before the conflict, but for the rally to keep going, we’ll likely need to see it broaden out beyond just the Nasdaq and big tech.

Headlines continue to drive direction. ZeroHedge summed up the key ones today as:

GOOD: Trump says talks with Iran are looking very promising — less pain

BAD: Gulf and European officials think a deal could take 6 months — more pain

UGLY: Trump warns that if no deal, fighting will resume — serious pain

Bond yields rose, the most-shorted stocks continued to get squeezed, and the dollar went nowhere.

Gold stayed flat around $4,800, while Bitcoin tested $73K before bouncing back toward $75K.

Relentless hope for a negotiated settlement with Iran, combined with resilient economic data, has kept the rally alive — at least for now.

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Tech-Driven Rally Continues – Metals & Bitcoin Sideways

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq got off to a strong start, with the S&P moving to a new all-time intraday high as traders stayed hopeful that a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war could materialize soon.

Broadcom was one of the standout performers, rising 3% after Meta extended its partnership to deploy custom chips using Broadcom’s technology.

This followed a very strong prior session — the S&P 500 has now surpassed its previous all-time high of 7,002.28 from January 28, marking its ninth positive session out of the last ten.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also posted its 10th straight gain and hit a fresh record high.

President Trump added to the optimistic mood, saying “We’ve been called by the other side — they’d like to make a deal very badly,” and later telling Fox Business that the war is “very close to over.”

Higher oil prices (and the equity strength) pushed bond yields up by about 3–4 basis points across the curve. The dollar traded sideways, while gold limped lower but stayed comfortably above $4,800.

Bitcoin also traded sideways, holding $74,000 as support for now.

In the end, equities seemed to decouple from oil, and bonds underperformed. It felt more like a narrow, tech-driven move than a true broadening of the rally.

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Tech & Mag 7 Shine Bright – Another Solid Green Day

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Yesterday’s optimism carried over nicely, and the major indexes kept climbing for another solid green day.

The Nasdaq led the way with the strongest gains, while tech stocks continued to support the broader market. Oracle jumped 7% (building on its big move the day before), and Nvidia and Palantir kept climbing too.

Traders were encouraged by President Trump’s comments that Iran “would like to make a deal very badly.”

Even though peace talks had a setback, the market is still pricing in the possibility of some kind of resolution. Oil prices reversed course and fell about 5%, with West Texas Intermediate trading above $93 a barrel.

On the earnings front, Wells Fargo dropped more than 5% after disappointing numbers, while JPMorgan Chase was mixed — it beat estimates but cut its net interest income guidance.

By the close, it felt like “mission accomplished” for stocks: the S&P 500 fully recovered its Iran-related losses and inched into the green, while the Nasdaq closed at the day’s highs.

The Mag 7 had another strong day, up 3% and outperforming the rest of the S&P 493. They’re now up 9 out of the last 10 days.

Bond yields dropped, the dollar weakened, gold pushed above $4,800 (its highest since mid-March), and Bitcoin was on fire again, topping $76K — its highest level since the war began.

Traders are now watching tomorrow and Friday’s massive options expirations, which can sometimes stir up extra volatility.

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Hope Springs Eternal — Even In A Blockaded Strait

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

After an early stumble, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to claw their way back above unchanged, as traders continued to hang onto the hope that some kind of deal between the U.S. and Iran might eventually emerge.

It wasn’t exactly conviction buying — more like cautious optimism refusing to die.

Technology stocks helped keep the broader market afloat. Software names led the way, with Oracle jumping 9% and Palantir adding 4%. Not every corner of the market played along, though.

Goldman Sachs was a clear laggard and weighed on the financials during the session.

The backdrop remains tense. President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after weekend peace talks between the U.S. and Iran ended without an agreement.

The blockade — covering all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports — went into effect Monday. U.S. Central Command emphasized that vessels traveling to non‑Iranian ports would not be blocked, but the message was loud and clear.

Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad without a deal, citing Iran’s refusal to halt its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Beyond that, the two sides appear far apart on several fronts, with Iran demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, and the release of frozen assets.

In short, traders were forced back to the drawing board, reassessing what stocks are really worth now that it’s becoming clear this Middle East conflict won’t be resolved anytime soon.

Then came the pivot. Equities caught a bid after Trump said Iran wants to “work a deal.” That single comment was enough to push the major indexes to session highs and quickly revive bullish sentiment.

Weak existing home sales data was brushed aside as markets chose to focus on geopolitics instead.

By the close, WTI crude had round‑tripped the day, slipping back to unchanged after spiking nearly 9% at the Sunday night open and falling back below $100.

Bond yields jumped and then faded, ending lower on the day. The dollar followed suit, which helped gold recover from an ugly open to finish near unchanged. Bitcoin stayed firm, rallying back toward its key resistance level around $73,000.

For now, traders seem to agree with the prevailing mindset: if you liked these assets before the conflict, you might like them even more now.

The big question is — how long can optimism hold when the headlines keep getting heavier?

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