Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +1.55% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.
The Dow opened with a sharp 600-point drop as traders kept watching the Iran war and rising oil prices (crude surged around 11%).
But the major indexes staged a solid comeback after Iranian state media said the country is working with Oman on a protocol to let ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz again.
One analyst put it this way: “It’s pivotal for the United States that the Strait is reopened, not so much because of oil but because of helium. Currently in our own domestic economy, helium is more valuable than foreign oil because it’s used to cool the processing of semiconductors and there is no substitute for it.”
President Trump gave an address Wednesday night, saying the U.S. is “getting very close” to ending the war but warning that America would “hit Tehran extremely hard” if needed.
In the end, only the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed tiny gains, while the Dow closed a tad lower.
For the holiday-shortened week, the indexes rebounded nicely and posted their first up week since the war began. The Mag 7 showed signs of life again by outperforming the rest of the S&P 493.
Bond yields eased, the dollar weakened, gold rallied strongly (holding firm despite an overnight plunge), and Bitcoin ended marginally higher than Friday’s close.
Some traders are heading into the long Easter weekend with a bit of optimism, mainly because April has historically been one of the best months for global stocks (along with November), and the S&P 500 also seasonally tends to perform well in April.
Continue reading…
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy”Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The day started with a sharp sell-off that had everything looking pretty ugly early on.
But the dip turned out to be short-lived — the major indexes clawed back most of their losses and ended up closing right around the unchanged line.
Nothing dramatic, just a quiet recovery.
Our TTIs followed a similar script. They pulled back with the market early but recovered later; in the end, only the domestic TTI managed to squeeze out a small green close.
This is how we closed 04/02/2026:
Domestic TTI: +1.55% above its M/A (prior close +1.40%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.17% above its M/A (prior close +4.78%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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The major indexes kicked off the new month on a positive note, climbing steadily as fresh hope emerged that the U.S.-Iran war could be winding down.
President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s president had asked for a ceasefire, though he added the U.S. would only consider it once the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and clear.”
This came after he told reporters he expects U.S. forces to leave Iran in “two or three weeks.”
That optimism helped fuel a solid rebound, especially after the choppy end to March. The indexes closed with nice green gains, the Nasdaq leading the way.
The Mag 7 had their best two-day stretch in nearly a year, though some momentum faded late. Small caps and broader participation also looked healthy.
Oil prices eased off their recent highs, bond yields stayed relatively calm, and the dollar dropped for the second straight day.
Gold accelerated higher and tested $4,800, silver treaded water, and Bitcoin topped $69K twice before pulling back to roughly flat.
Positive U.S. macro data (strong retail sales, resilient manufacturing, and solid jobs) helped, even as inflation ticked higher.
In the end, it was another wild 24 hours of energy market swings and ceasefire claims/denials — classic headline ping-pong.
Stocks jumped right out of the gate after a new report gave investors fresh hope that the U.S.-Iran war might be winding down.
The WSJ said President Trump had told aides he’s willing to end military hostilities even if the Strait of Hormuz stays largely shut. That headline was enough to spark a strong rebound.
Crude prices stayed elevated anyway—WTI held above $100—after Bloomberg reported Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters.
Still, the overall mood shifted bullish, and the major indexes posted their best day since May. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all climbed nicely, with a massive short squeeze helping small caps surge over 3.5%.
For the full month of March, however, it was a different story: all the major indexes finished down around 6% in sync, with energy being the only sector to end in the green. The Mag 7 dramatically underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 for the month and year-to-date.
Bond yields rose, the dollar rallied, and gold—despite cratering 12% in March (its worst month since October 2008)—bounced back strongly today and is now up in 9 of the last 10 quarters.
Bitcoin slumped during Q1 but ended March modestly higher and appears to have found a temporary bottom when the war started.
Today’s turnaround was welcome, but if traders decide the latest jawboning was just hot air or that the U.S. doesn’t really control how this ends, this green day could turn out to be nothing more than a one-off outlier.
The major indexes opened higher after President Trump posted that the U.S. is in “serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime” to end military operations in Iran.
He added that “great progress has been made,” which briefly lifted sentiment. However, he also warned that if a peace deal isn’t reached “shortly” and the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened immediately, the U.S. would “obliterate” Iran’s electric plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island.
This mixed messaging—hope for talks combined with fresh threats—quickly reversed the mood.
Sentiment flipped from bullish to bearish, and the indexes slid lower. In the end, only the Dow managed a tiny green close, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished moderately in the red. Oil spiked and closed above $100, adding to the cautious tone.
The Mag 7 and the broader S&P 493 tracked each other lower. Bond yields sank, the dollar rallied, gold rode a roller-coaster but ended roughly unchanged, silver and copper eked out small gains, and Bitcoin bounced around but closed basically flat.
Future market direction seems to hang almost entirely on the outcome of the Iran war—or at least on clear, verifiable statements from all parties that a real resolution is close.
Without that, the current choppy, negative-leaning environment is likely to continue.
Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.
The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (116 vs. 111 current).
