Early Rally Holds – Tech & Metals Lift Indexes Higher

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes jumped right out of the gate and held onto solid gains most of the day, fueled by strength in key tech names, as traders waited for the Fed’s latest minutes and eyed the big PCE inflation report coming Friday.

Nvidia climbed more than 2% after Meta announced it’s going to load up on millions of Nvidia chips for its data-center buildout.

Amazon added 2% too, boosted by filings showing Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square grew its stake by 65% in Q4—making it the fund’s third-largest holding (nice vote of confidence after Amazon snapped a nine-day losing streak).

Oil prices popped as traders digested fresh U.S.-Iran tensions—VP JD Vance said Iran didn’t meet red lines in this week’s nuclear talks and military options are still on the table.

Macro data this morning helped too: durable goods orders beat, housing starts & permits surged more than expected, and industrial production came in strong.

The Fed minutes showed a few members open to rate hikes if needed, which nudged rate-cut expectations lower and gave bond yields a moderate lift.

The dollar broke out higher, while Bitcoin mirrored that move early then faded after the release.

Gold topped $5,000 today and closed up 2%, with silver and copper also posting positive days. Mega-cap tech did its classic pump-and-dump, but the broader market held firm.

We’re past the halfway point in February now, and history says the back half of the month usually isn’t kind to stocks.

Will it be different this time?

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Early Selloff Fades – Software Still Hurting, Metals Slip

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes opened in the red to kick off this holiday-shortened week, with tech leading the downside and pulling the metals along for the ride.

Software names (already beaten up) took another hit on ongoing fears that AI tools could eventually replace a lot of industry-specific programs.

Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Palantir each dipped about 1%, Salesforce fell 2%, Autodesk slid 3%, and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) lost 1%—pushing its year-to-date decline to 22%.

That AI disruption worry has been spreading across sectors like software, real estate, trucking, and financial services, helping drive the S&P 500 to its second straight losing week.

The Dow and S&P both logged their fourth down week in the last five, while the Nasdaq stretched its losing streak to five straight—the longest since 2022.

By the close, the indexes clawed back from the early hole and finished slightly green. The saber-rattling tone with Iran softened a bit, and with China out for Lunar New Year plus many U.S. traders returning from the long weekend, liquidity was thin, and follow-through was muted.

Under the hood, software stocks kept getting hammered, but mega-caps managed to eke out some gains despite rising bond yields.

The dollar whipsawed and ended flat, gold lost its grip on $5,000, and Bitcoin pumped early but faded back toward $68K.

When stocks can still close green after a slow start, but metals take a step back, does this feel like a healthy little breather in an otherwise bullish trend… or are we having to watch for signs the broader market might need a stronger catalyst to keep the momentum going?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 02/13/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (268 vs. 265 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For February 13, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

CPI COMES IN SOFT – STOCKS FLAT, GOLD BACK ABOVE $5,000

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The S&P 500 spent the early part of the day just treading water, and the month ended basically flat as the latest consumer inflation report (January CPI) came in softer than expected but didn’t spark any big rally.

Headline CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month (annualized 2.4%), beating the forecasted 0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY. Core CPI (excluding food & energy) matched expectations at 0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY.

The number was a bit of a relief after the strong payrolls data earlier in the week—giving the Fed a touch more room to stay dovish without inflation looking too sticky.

Still, it’s above their target, so near-term policy isn’t moving much. Rate-cut expectations barely budged.

The bigger story this week was ongoing jitters about AI disruption. Fears that AI could upend revenue in industries like real estate, trucking, software, financial services, and even media (hitting names like Disney -3% and Netflix -7% for the week) kept pressure on growth stocks.

Mega-cap tech plunged for a fourth straight day, sinking to its lowest since September 2025, while utilities quietly became the go-to safe haven.

Bond yields retreated (helping equities a bit), rate-cut odds ticked higher, the dollar ended the week lower, and Bitcoin tested $69K today but stayed volatile overall.

Gold managed to gain for the week and recapture $5,000, while silver advanced today but slipped slightly overall.

Despite the chop, earnings season remains a bright spot—US companies are posting strong profit growth again, with +12% year-over-year, marking five straight quarters of double-digit increases.

That’s something to cheer about.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/12/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, February 12, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.50% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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AI Disruption Fears Slam Mag 7 – Indexes Close Red

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The Dow got off to a nice start with some early gains as traders kept rotating away from tech and into more economy-sensitive names like Walmart, Boeing, and GE Vernova, all of which moved higher.

But that positive vibe didn’t last—the mood shifted, and the major indexes all dove back into the red by the close, with tech feeling the most pain.

The big catalyst was a fresh headline warning that AI could fully automate most tasks done by accountants, lawyers, and other professionals within the next 12–18 months.

That hit the Mag 7 hard, pushing mega-caps to their lowest levels in four months and leaving the group lagging the S&P 493 sharply on a year-to-date basis.

Yesterday’s strong jobs report (130,000 added vs. the expected 55,000, unemployment ticking down to 4.3%) had given a brief relief rally, but today’s action darkened the picture.

It muddies the Fed’s path—stronger labor data could mean fewer rate cuts if inflation stays sticky, putting even more focus on Friday’s CPI report before the long weekend.

Bond yields drifted lower all day, rate-cut expectations bounced back a bit, and the dollar ended flat. Bitcoin tagged $68K early before sliding back to the $65K area. The metals complex got dragged lower too, led by silver.

With tech getting slammed on AI disruption fears, the Dow holding up better in the rotation, and Friday’s CPI looming, does this feel like a normal healthy shakeout ahead of key data… or a sign that the market’s getting jittery and might need a clear inflation print to calm things down?

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