Tech & Mag 7 Shine Bright – Another Solid Green Day

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Yesterday’s optimism carried over nicely, and the major indexes kept climbing for another solid green day.

The Nasdaq led the way with the strongest gains, while tech stocks continued to support the broader market. Oracle jumped 7% (building on its big move the day before), and Nvidia and Palantir kept climbing too.

Traders were encouraged by President Trump’s comments that Iran “would like to make a deal very badly.”

Even though peace talks had a setback, the market is still pricing in the possibility of some kind of resolution. Oil prices reversed course and fell about 5%, with West Texas Intermediate trading above $93 a barrel.

On the earnings front, Wells Fargo dropped more than 5% after disappointing numbers, while JPMorgan Chase was mixed — it beat estimates but cut its net interest income guidance.

By the close, it felt like “mission accomplished” for stocks: the S&P 500 fully recovered its Iran-related losses and inched into the green, while the Nasdaq closed at the day’s highs.

The Mag 7 had another strong day, up 3% and outperforming the rest of the S&P 493. They’re now up 9 out of the last 10 days.

Bond yields dropped, the dollar weakened, gold pushed above $4,800 (its highest since mid-March), and Bitcoin was on fire again, topping $76K — its highest level since the war began.

Traders are now watching tomorrow and Friday’s massive options expirations, which can sometimes stir up extra volatility.

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Hope Springs Eternal — Even In A Blockaded Strait

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

After an early stumble, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to claw their way back above unchanged, as traders continued to hang onto the hope that some kind of deal between the U.S. and Iran might eventually emerge.

It wasn’t exactly conviction buying — more like cautious optimism refusing to die.

Technology stocks helped keep the broader market afloat. Software names led the way, with Oracle jumping 9% and Palantir adding 4%. Not every corner of the market played along, though.

Goldman Sachs was a clear laggard and weighed on the financials during the session.

The backdrop remains tense. President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after weekend peace talks between the U.S. and Iran ended without an agreement.

The blockade — covering all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports — went into effect Monday. U.S. Central Command emphasized that vessels traveling to non‑Iranian ports would not be blocked, but the message was loud and clear.

Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad without a deal, citing Iran’s refusal to halt its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Beyond that, the two sides appear far apart on several fronts, with Iran demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, and the release of frozen assets.

In short, traders were forced back to the drawing board, reassessing what stocks are really worth now that it’s becoming clear this Middle East conflict won’t be resolved anytime soon.

Then came the pivot. Equities caught a bid after Trump said Iran wants to “work a deal.” That single comment was enough to push the major indexes to session highs and quickly revive bullish sentiment.

Weak existing home sales data was brushed aside as markets chose to focus on geopolitics instead.

By the close, WTI crude had round‑tripped the day, slipping back to unchanged after spiking nearly 9% at the Sunday night open and falling back below $100.

Bond yields jumped and then faded, ending lower on the day. The dollar followed suit, which helped gold recover from an ugly open to finish near unchanged. Bitcoin stayed firm, rallying back toward its key resistance level around $73,000.

For now, traders seem to agree with the prevailing mindset: if you liked these assets before the conflict, you might like them even more now.

The big question is — how long can optimism hold when the headlines keep getting heavier?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 04/10/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (111 vs. 220 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For April 10, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

OIL STEADY, DOLLAR WEAK – SOLID WEEK DESPITE WAR NOISE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started the day with a slight bounce, putting the major indexes on track for a solid weekly gain as traders kept one eye on the fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

Inflation was a big focus this week, with the March CPI coming in mostly as expected — headline up 0.9% for the month and 3.3% year-over-year (helped by a big 10.9% jump in energy costs from the conflict). Core CPI (without food and energy) was actually tame at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, below forecasts.

Oil prices stayed elevated but were relatively calm today, with West Texas Intermediate hovering above $98 a barrel. The ceasefire has helped ease some immediate supply panic around the Strait of Hormuz.

In the end, only the Nasdaq managed to hold onto a small green close, while the Dow and S&P 500 slipped modestly into the red.

Growth signals improved relative to inflation fears, with the Nasdaq and small caps testing back into positive territory since the war began, though the Dow lagged. The Mag 7 showed some life but still underperformed the broader S&P 493 for the week.

Bond yields were mixed after a roller-coaster ride, the dollar fell for the seventh time in eight days (its biggest weekly decline since “Liberation Day”), gold rallied for the third straight week (up over 18% from the lows), and Bitcoin had a strong week — up 6 of the last 7 days and hitting its highest level since mid-March.

Let’s see what the weekend brings — with the ceasefire still fragile, anything can happen. Will traders stay optimistic heading into next week, or will fresh headlines stir things up again?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/09/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, April 9, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.18% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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From Early Dip to Solid Green Close – Markets Shake Off War Jitters

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes dipped early but quickly found their footing and closed with solid green gains. The rebound was helped by easing oil prices and ongoing monitoring of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire situation.

West Texas Intermediate crude eased back after briefly topping $100 a barrel, while traders digested the details of the two-week “double-sided” ceasefire.

The deal hinges on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has agreed to for the next two weeks if attacks stop. President Trump has said U.S. forces will stay in the region until full compliance, warning of a massive response if the agreement is broken.

On the economic front, February’s core PCE inflation (the Fed’s favorite gauge) came in right in line with expectations, and other data showed a mixed but not disastrous picture. That helped ease some stagflation fears and supported the positive mood.

The S&P 500 notched its seventh straight winning day, with small caps and broader participation looking healthy. The Mag 7 also showed some life again.

Bond yields ended unchanged, the dollar dipped, Bitcoin climbed back above $72K, and gold advanced, briefly hitting $4,800 before fading into the close.

Longer term, the war has accelerated a notable shift: central banks now hold more gold than U.S. dollar reserves for the first time, highlighting growing distrust in the dollar.

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