Truce Hopes Spark Strong Rebound – Best Day Since May

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks jumped right out of the gate after a new report gave investors fresh hope that the U.S.-Iran war might be winding down.

The WSJ said President Trump had told aides he’s willing to end military hostilities even if the Strait of Hormuz stays largely shut. That headline was enough to spark a strong rebound.

Crude prices stayed elevated anyway—WTI held above $100—after Bloomberg reported Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters.

Still, the overall mood shifted bullish, and the major indexes posted their best day since May. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all climbed nicely, with a massive short squeeze helping small caps surge over 3.5%.

For the full month of March, however, it was a different story: all the major indexes finished down around 6% in sync, with energy being the only sector to end in the green. The Mag 7 dramatically underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 for the month and year-to-date.

Bond yields rose, the dollar rallied, and gold—despite cratering 12% in March (its worst month since October 2008)—bounced back strongly today and is now up in 9 of the last 10 quarters.

Bitcoin slumped during Q1 but ended March modestly higher and appears to have found a temporary bottom when the war started.

Today’s turnaround was welcome, but if traders decide the latest jawboning was just hot air or that the U.S. doesn’t really control how this ends, this green day could turn out to be nothing more than a one-off outlier.

Read More

Geopolitical Jawboning Continues – Bears Edge Out Bulls

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened higher after President Trump posted that the U.S. is in “serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime” to end military operations in Iran.

He added that “great progress has been made,” which briefly lifted sentiment. However, he also warned that if a peace deal isn’t reached “shortly” and the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened immediately, the U.S. would “obliterate” Iran’s electric plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island.

This mixed messaging—hope for talks combined with fresh threats—quickly reversed the mood.

Sentiment flipped from bullish to bearish, and the indexes slid lower. In the end, only the Dow managed a tiny green close, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished moderately in the red. Oil spiked and closed above $100, adding to the cautious tone.

The Mag 7 and the broader S&P 493 tracked each other lower. Bond yields sank, the dollar rallied, gold rode a roller-coaster but ended roughly unchanged, silver and copper eked out small gains, and Bitcoin bounced around but closed basically flat.

Future market direction seems to hang almost entirely on the outcome of the Iran war—or at least on clear, verifiable statements from all parties that a real resolution is close.

Without that, the current choppy, negative-leaning environment is likely to continue.

Read More

ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 03/27/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (116 vs. 111 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For March 27, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

DOMESTIC TTI BREAKS TREND LINE – GEOPOLITICS WEIGHS HEAVY

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks tumbled early and never really recovered, as fresh worries about the U.S.-Iran conflict and surging oil prices kept the bears firmly in control.

Brent crude traded above $110 a barrel after new incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, while President Trump’s latest comments failed to reassure traders enough to start buying.

The Nasdaq officially fell into correction territory (down more than 10% from its October record), and the Dow flirted with the same territory after dipping below it intraday. For the full week, the Nasdaq was the biggest loser (down over 3%), followed by the S&P 500.

Interestingly, small caps eked out a small gain thanks to two big short squeezes earlier in the week.

The Mag 7 continued to dramatically underperform the rest of the S&P 493. Bond yields rose across the curve (though they softened a bit today), the dollar surged for the third week in the last four, and gold finally acted like a safe haven again, pushing back above $4,500.

Silver and copper outperformed gold for the week, while Bitcoin retreated below $66K but remains roughly unchanged since the war began.

Today’s drop pushed our domestic TTI below its long-term trend line (more details in section 3). The international TTI held up better but is also under pressure.

At this point, it feels like traders are no longer falling for the occasional glimmer of hope being jawboned about. They’re becoming more demanding for real progress, and any absence of it could lead to even more negative market moves.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/26/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, March 26, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +0.31% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

Read More

No Safe Havens Today – Bears Dominate The Session

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened lower and stayed under pressure most of the day, weighed down by rising oil prices and ongoing uncertainty from the Middle East conflict.

Brent crude jumped 4% to above $107 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 3% to over $93, as traders reacted to the latest developments.

President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran “better get serious soon, before it is too late,” warning that once a certain point is reached, “there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty.”

He also described Iranian negotiators as “very different” and “strange,” claiming they were “begging” for a deal.

This came after Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran is reviewing a U.S. proposal but has no intention of direct talks. Gulf countries issued a joint statement condemning Iran’s “criminal” strikes on energy infrastructure and said they’re ready to defend themselves.

In short, nobody is quite sure where the truth lies, but the ambiguity can’t last much longer with Trump’s five-day deadline for talks looming.

In the end, risk-off sentiment dominated. “No deal” fears and the threat of escalation left traders de-risking across the board.

Oil and bond yields rose, stocks fell, the dollar strengthened, and both Bitcoin and precious metals got battered.

Gold broke below $4,400, and Bitcoin dropped from $72K to $68K. The Mag 7 continued to underperform the S&P 493 by a wide margin (now down 25% relative since the war began), with Microsoft off 24% YTD and Nvidia flat since July 2025.

Traders remain anxious ahead of tomorrow night’s Trump deadline. For sure, the market needs a fresh, clear driver to pull itself out of these doldrums.

Read More