Tech Takes Charge As Markets Look Past The Noise

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks pushed higher early after President Trump announced an extension of the U.S. ceasefire with Iran, and a solid batch of earnings reports helped keep sentiment upbeat.

The move gave markets a sense of breathing room, even if the situation remains far from resolved.

Shortly after Tuesday’s close, Trump said he would extend the ceasefire, citing Iran’s “seriously fractured” government as a reason to allow more time for negotiations.

At the same time, he emphasized that the U.S. military would maintain its blockade and remain fully prepared should talks fail. In other words, diplomacy stays on the table—but the pressure hasn’t gone anywhere.

That said, the timeline still looks shaky. Reports suggest Vice President JD Vance paused plans to join peace talks after Tehran failed to show meaningful commitment. Iranian state media added to the uncertainty, quoting negotiators who dismissed talks with the U.S. as a “waste of time.”

So yes, the jawboning continues, and likely will for a while. Still, markets seem to be focusing on the broader takeaway: despite the noise, the path appears more de‑escalatory than not.

Beyond geopolitics, earnings season is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Boeing shares climbed more than 4% after reporting a smaller‑than‑expected first‑quarter loss, while GE Vernova jumped 10% on stronger‑than‑expected revenue.

So far, more than 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten expectations—a strong start by any measure.

By the close, tech was once again in the driver’s seat, pushing both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs. Rising oil prices were largely shrugged off, as confidence in earnings outweighed concerns about narrow market breadth.

The Magnificent Seven handily outperformed the rest of the index, moving back into the green for the week.

Bond yields were mixed, the dollar strengthened, gold posted modest gains, and Bitcoin continued to march higher, breaking above $79,000 for the first time since February 2.

As ZeroHedge put it, if markets believe a resolution is likely in the coming months, even meaningful near‑term economic damage may not derail equities or other long‑duration assets.

The real question is: how long can that conviction hold if progress on the diplomatic front continues to stall?

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From Early Optimism To Late‑Day Anxiety

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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A positive start to the day fizzled out quickly, with the major indexes sliding into the red as traders waited for fresh developments out of the Middle East. With the current ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday, uncertainty once again took center stage.

President Trump told CNBC that he expects the U.S. and Iran to reach a “great deal,” but he also made it clear that the U.S. military is ready to act if no agreement is signed before the deadline — and that he has no intention of extending the ceasefire. That tougher tone followed an earlier Truth Social post in which Trump claimed Iran had “violated the ceasefire numerous times.”

Despite the headlines, Wall Street appears to be slowly looking past the immediate conflict.

What really matters to markets is the normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and on that front, it feels like we’re getting closer. There was a brief pickup in commercial vessel traffic over the weekend, although that momentum stalled again after several reported attacks on ships.

By the close, the major indexes couldn’t recover and finished solidly in the red. Anxiety around the ceasefire deadline weighed on nearly every sector, with “value” stocks being the lone area showing some resilience. Even an early short squeeze failed to stick, leaving small caps as the day’s clear underperformers.

Economic data offered some bright spots. Retail sales surprised to the upside, core sales came in strong, and pending home sales jumped sharply in March. Still, the macro news struggled to offset geopolitical concerns.

Bond yields moved higher, pushing the dollar up as well — a tough combination for gold, which slipped below the $4,800 level and tested the $4,700 area. Bitcoin faded too but held up better than the metals overall.

With uncertainty in the Middle East still elevated — and the risk of no truce looming — the odds of another equity drawdown remain uncomfortably high, while hopes for a sustained rally continue to fade.

The question now is: what will it take to shift sentiment decisively back to the upside?

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Ceasefire Expiration Looms – Markets Tread Carefully

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes opened lower as tensions between the U.S. and Iran heated up over the weekend, but traders are still holding onto hope that the two sides will eventually reach some kind of compromise.

President Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, and he once again threatened to blow up Iran’s power plants and bridges if no deal is reached. The current ceasefire is set to expire this week.

By the end of the session, oil prices were higher while stocks finished only modestly lower.

Small caps were the clear winner thanks to another strong short squeeze, while the Nasdaq lagged. The Mag 7, which had outperformed recently, pulled back and underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 today.

Bond yields opened higher but ended unchanged, rate-cut expectations improved slightly, the dollar chopped around, and gold finished a bit in the red. Bitcoin slid over the weekend but made a strong comeback and climbed back above $76K.

At this point, price momentum and solid earnings are helping offset the geopolitical disappointments. But if the peace narrative starts to look fragile or falls apart, the market could follow suit quickly.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 04/17/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (220 vs. 245 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For April 17, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

IRAN REOPENS STRAIT – STOCKS ROCKET HIGHER ON CEASEFIRE HOPES

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks rocketed higher on Friday after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” following a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon. The news removed a major supply disruption fear and sent oil prices tumbling.

West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 14% to around $80 a barrel, while Brent fell 13% to about $86.

President Trump thanked Iran for reopening the strait and said the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports will stay in place until a full peace agreement is reached, adding that the process “should go very quickly.”

Despite some confusing and conflicting headlines, traders didn’t care — they pushed stocks, gold, and Bitcoin sharply higher. Rate-cut odds also improved.

The Nasdaq 100 extended its winning streak to 13 straight days (its longest since July 2013).

Since the war began, stocks have massively outperformed bonds, though breadth remains weak. The Mag 7 showed strength again, and small caps joined the party.

Bond yields dropped, the dollar fell for the third week in a row, gold spiked toward $4,900, silver outperformed, and Bitcoin surged above $78K for the first time since early February — solidly outperforming gold since the conflict started.

To me, the big question now is whether this jawboning and relentless headline ping-pong can actually turn into a sustainable truce, so today’s advances aren’t wiped out by the next sudden jerk.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/16/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, April 16, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.32% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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