Tech Leads The Charge As Stocks Push Higher

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 notched another fresh intraday high this morning, with tech once again doing much of the heavy lifting. Chipmakers led the charge, with Marvell jumping 7% while Nvidia and Broadcom added about 1% each.

Stocks also got some help from the bond and energy markets. Treasury yields backed off recent highs, with the 10-year slipping to 5.29%, while oil prices retreated, giving investors a little breathing room after their recent runs.

The dollar eased as well, lending support to gold. Bitcoin made an attempt at joining the party but couldn’t hold the rally and finished roughly unchanged. Apparently, not everyone got the bullish memo.

Next up are Wednesday’s Fed minutes, which could offer more clues on the thinking behind September’s rate hike.

Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns remain in the background, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries offsetting some of the recovery in Middle East product exports.

For now, the bulls still have the upper hand, but with earnings season approaching, can corporate results keep them running, or will high rates and geopolitical risks finally slow the charge?

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Nasdaq Hits A Record, But Beneath The Surface Trouble Brews

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The Nasdaq sailed to another record high, even as Treasury yields pushed higher, with the 10-year climbing to 5.33%.

The ISM Services reading of 54.9% landed roughly where expected, keeping the economic-growth story intact while traders now look ahead to Wednesday’s Fed minutes for clues on the rate outlook.

But beneath the headline gains, things were far less impressive. Market breadth weakened again, marking the 15th straight session with more new lows than new highs, while the Mag 7 continued to do much of the heavy lifting.

In other words, the indexes are partying, but the guest list remains awfully short.

Elsewhere, the dollar faded from its early highs, gold slipped back toward Friday’s lows, Bitcoin whipsawed around $85,500, and oil moved lower.

So, the market remains caught between two competing narratives: solid growth and earnings optimism on one side, and higher yields and tighter financial conditions on the other.

Can earnings strength keep overpowering rising bond yields, or will the bond market eventually spoil the party?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/02/2026

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Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (185 vs. 151 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 2, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

BAD JOBS NEWS, GOOD MARKET NEWS: BULLS TAKE THE WHEEL

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks jumped out of the gate this morning, after a surprisingly weak jobs report sent bond yields lower and raised hopes that the Fed may keep rates unchanged in October.

September payrolls increased by just 29,000, well short of the 84,000 expected, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Ouch.

But in today’s market, bad economic news can quickly become good news for stocks if it keeps the Fed on the sidelines.

The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 2 basis points to 5.216%, while the 2-year recovered from an initial drop to finish roughly flat. Fed-funds futures responded accordingly, putting the odds of no October hike at 86%, up from about 76% yesterday.

Tech led the charge as investors rediscovered their appetite for risk. Nvidia reached an all-time high for the first time since May, while Intel and AMD both gained more than 4%.

One trader even floated the possibility that the long-awaited Santa Claus rally may be getting an early start. October 2 seems a little early to hang the Christmas lights, but Wall Street loves getting ahead of itself.

Elsewhere, the picture was more complicated. Oil initially dropped sharply on reports that European countries were considering releasing strategic fuel reserves, although Brent remained above $100. The dollar surged as European fiscal concerns pressured the euro.

Gold briefly spiked after the payroll report but quickly gave it back, retreating toward the week’s lows with $4,200 looking like resistance for now.

Bitcoin had a strong week as well, breaking through $85,000 and topping $87,000 before reversing sharply this afternoon as real yields moved higher.

What’s interesting is that investors aren’t simply flipping between “risk-on” and “risk-off.”

Money is flowing into equities for AI growth, Treasuries for increasingly attractive 5%-plus yields, and gold for insurance, while investors pull back from high-yield credit and energy.

In other words, this market seems perfectly comfortable having several opinions at the same time.

So, did today mark the beginning of a more durable shift in market sentiment, or was it simply another Friday flirtation with optimism?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/01/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 1, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +2.08% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Stocks Dodge A Yield Curveball And Claw Back To Even

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started October on the back foot as surging Treasury yields pressured the broader market, despite blockbuster earnings from Micron.

The 10-year yield briefly climbed above 5.34%, touching levels not seen in roughly 24 years, while the 30-year pushed above 5.66%.

That’s becoming the market’s elephant in the room. Stocks remain near record highs, but with bonds offering increasingly attractive returns, the old “there is no alternative” argument for equities is getting a serious stress test.

Micron delivered spectacular numbers, with quarterly revenue reportedly quadrupling, yet the stock slipped about 3%. After a 200%+ run this year, apparently even blockbuster earnings need a blockbuster encore.

Fortunately, yields retreated from their highs as the session progressed, allowing the major indexes to crawl out of their early hole and finish around unchanged. The Mag 7 lagged the broader S&P 493, while the dollar strengthened amid weakness in Europe.

Elsewhere, WTI crude rose above $91 as traders remained focused on the Iran conflict, while gold managed to stay green despite dollar strength. Bitcoin added some excitement of its own, briefly jumping toward $85,000.

October has a reputation for volatility, but it has also earned the nickname “Bear Killer” for several memorable market reversals.

With yields still calling much of the tune, was today’s comeback simply a reprieve, or are the bulls already warming up for another October surprise?

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