Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.
The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (221 vs. 199 current).
RISING YIELDS AND CHINA DISAPPOINTMENT KNOCK STOCKS LOWER
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
Stocks took a step back as a tech sell‑off and a sharp jump in bond yields knocked the wind out of the market’s recent rally.
Adding to the sour mood, the much‑anticipated summit between Presidents Trump and Xi wrapped up without any major policy breakthroughs or meaningful business deals—leaving traders underwhelmed.
While both sides agreed the Strait of Hormuz needs to stay open, the handful of headlines that did come out of Beijing—like the Boeing order news—failed to impress.
At the same time, bond yields surged, with the 30‑year topping 5.1%, its highest level since 2025. That move followed a week of inflation data showing price pressures heating back up, especially with oil prices staying elevated. Rising rates tend to hit high‑growth stocks first, and tech felt it.
The broader concern lurking beneath the surface is market breadth. Stocks have been riding a record‑breaking run fueled by AI excitement, but peel back the layers and it’s clear the gains are being carried by just a handful of mega‑cap tech names.
The widening gap between the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the market has more traders questioning how sturdy this rally really is.
Even with U.S. macro data coming in stronger than expected, stubborn inflation, surging yields, and the “nothing burger” from Beijing were enough to send the bulls packing—at least for the day. Equities finished deep in the red across the board.
Oil prices moved higher after Trump left the China meeting without any meaningful discussion around boosting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting worries about potential supply disruptions. Traders also stayed on edge as the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran continues to look fragile.
By week’s end, the S&P 500 managed to close in the green—but only because the Mag 7 did all the heavy lifting. Strip those out, and the S&P 493 actually finished the week in the red.
The dollar logged its second‑best week since November 2024, which weighed on precious metals. Gold found support near $4,500, while silver’s wild swings stole the spotlight—giving back an 11% midweek gain to finish down about 5%.
Bitcoin followed a similar path, briefly testing $82K earlier in the week before sliding back toward $78K.
In the end, all roads still lead back to interest rates—and with this growing gap between yields and equities, something eventually has to give. So, which one moves first?
Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.69% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.
Stocks came out strong early, with the Dow pushing back above the 50,000-mark helped by upbeat earnings from Cisco and encouraging headlines out of the U.S.–China meeting.
Cisco was a standout, jumping 17% intraday after beating expectations on both earnings and guidance, while also announcing plans to cut nearly 4,000 jobs. That surge gave the Dow a solid boost.
Nvidia added to the momentum, climbing more than 4% after reports that the U.S. cleared several Chinese firms to purchase its H200 chips—though shipments haven’t started yet.
Geopolitics also played a role. Iran was front and center during the Trump–Xi summit, with both leaders agreeing the Strait of Hormuz must remain open—easing, at least temporarily, due to fears around global energy supply.
Even with lingering concerns about higher oil prices weighing on parts of the market, tech stocks—especially semiconductors like Nvidia and Micron—continued to lead the charge.
Positive signals out of Beijing, combined with solid retail sales data, helped keep the rally intact. The “Magnificent 7” once again outperformed, though market breadth showed signs of improvement compared to recent sessions.
In the background, bond yields were choppy for most of the day before spiking late in the session, giving the dollar a lift. Gold held steady, while silver cooled off slightly but found support around the $84 level.
Bitcoin joined the risk-on move, climbing back toward $82K and showing signs of moving in sync with tech stocks again.
For now, the China summit seems to have taken some immediate pressure off the Middle East situation—but given how quickly headlines can shift, that calm could be short-lived.
So, the real question is: does this rally have legs, or is it just another headline-driven bounce?
Markets were all over the place today after another hotter‑than‑expected inflation report sent bond yields racing to a 10‑month intraday high. The Dow slid early under the weight of rising rates, while strong gains in chip stocks helped keep the Nasdaq afloat.
Tech once again led the charge, easily outperforming the rest of the market. Meanwhile, inflation fears—made worse by rising energy prices tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East—pressed on more rate‑sensitive sectors like retail and banking.
Just a day earlier, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had already backed off record highs following a hotter‑than‑expected consumer inflation print.
Then came Wednesday’s producer price index, and it didn’t help matters. PPI jumped 1.4% in April, the biggest monthly increase since March 2022 and far above the 0.5% economists were expecting. On an annual basis, wholesale inflation surged 6%, topping estimates and marking the strongest reading since late 2022.
For policymakers, this kind of data is about as unwelcome as it gets. No matter who’s in charge, inflation running this hot makes it tough to even talk about interest‑rate cuts anytime soon.
By the end of the session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to squeeze out modest gains, while the Dow climbed out of a deep early hole to finish roughly flat.
In commodities, oil kept ripping higher—up more than 8% over the past three sessions—as Middle East tensions simmered, and global stockpiles continued to shrink at a record pace.
Big tech stocks also stood out, with the “Magnificent 7” once again crushing the rest of the S&P 500.
The dollar drifted slightly, while gold followed along and found support near $4,700.
Silver stayed red‑hot, rising for a seventh straight session, and topping $89 for the first time in two months. Bitcoin pulled back but found solid footing around $79,000.
Inflation and global rates remain the main drivers of market action—but it’s really the speed of the move in bond yields that matters most. So, when does that finally start to hit stocks in a meaningful way?
The major indexes slid right out of the gate, pressured by rising oil prices as traders digested a hotter‑than‑expected April CPI report. Inflation worries quickly took center stage.
West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 3%, pushing back above $101 a barrel, adding fuel to concerns that higher energy costs could keep inflation sticky.
The move built on Monday’s oil rally, which followed President Trump calling the month‑old U.S.–Iran ceasefire “unbelievably weak” and “on massive life support” after rejecting what he labeled an unacceptable counterproposal from Tehran.
Iran’s latest offer reportedly included demands for war reparations, full control of the Strait of Hormuz, the release of frozen assets, and the lifting of sanctions—terms that appear to have stalled any real progress toward peace.
Against that backdrop, inflation data drew extra scrutiny. The CPI rose 0.6% in April, pushing the year‑over‑year rate to 3.8%, slightly above expectations of 3.7% and the highest reading since May 2023.
It wasn’t a sudden spike, but rather another step higher—suggesting inflation pressures may continue to build if the Middle East conflict drags on.
Markets managed to recover some ground late in the session, but the damage was already done.
Only the Dow eked out a marginal gain, while the S&P 500 finished flat and the Nasdaq remained in the red. Small Caps were hit hard, though they did bounce off their worst levels.
Elsewhere, bond yields climbed, the dollar rallied back toward last week’s highs, and gold chopped around to finish roughly unchanged.
Silver shook off early weakness and closed higher, while Bitcoin slipped but found support near the $80,000 level.
All told, it had the feel of a risk‑off day, with hopes for easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed firmly to the back burner.
The question now is: how much longer can markets shrug off rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty before it really starts to matter?
