Inflation Stays Sticky, Markets Stay Sleepy: Can Nvidia Change The Mood?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market spent most of today standing around the coffee machine waiting for something interesting to happen.

July’s PCE inflation report came in a touch hotter than expected, reminding investors that inflation still hasn’t fully gotten the memo. Even so, the S&P 500 barely budged as traders chose to keep their powder dry.

What mattered more was the bond market. Treasury yields bounced higher after yesterday’s pullback, the dollar strengthened modestly, and that combination put some pressure on gold, which slipped back below $4,600.

Bitcoin also took a breather after yesterday’s run above $81,000, finishing little changed.

Now the spotlight shifts squarely to Nvidia. With the chip giant set to report after the bell and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to speak in Jackson Hole on Friday, traders have no shortage of potential catalysts.

The market has been marking time lately, but will Nvidia’s report card finally be enough to wake Wall Street from its late-summer nap?

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Summer Doldrums Persist As Nvidia And Inflation Loom Large

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market finally found a little traction today, with the S&P 500 posting a modest gain and the Nasdaq leading the way thanks to another strong showing from semiconductor stocks.

Falling Treasury yields helped the mood, as the 10-year yield declined for a second straight session, while oil prices dropped more than 3%, taking some inflation pressure off the table.

Not everything was green, though. Consumer stocks had a rough day, led by Dick’s Sporting Goods, which looked like it forgot which game it was playing, plunging nearly 30% after disappointing results.

Walmart and Target also struggled as a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence reading and renewed U.S.-Canada trade tensions weighed on sentiment.

Elsewhere, gold flirted with fresh highs before cooling off, copper outperformed across the metals complex, and Bitcoin briefly sprinted above $81,000 before running out of breath. The dollar finished slightly lower.

For now, the market feels stuck in late-summer cruise control, but that calm could disappear quickly.

Tomorrow brings the Core PCE inflation report and Nvidia earnings, followed by Jackson Hole on Friday.

In other words, traders may finally have something more exciting to do than watch paint dry. Will inflation or Nvidia end up being the bigger market mover this week?

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Chips Stumble, Gold, And Bitcoin Shine

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks took a step back today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipping as weakness in the semiconductor space overshadowed a welcome dip in Treasury yields. Micron got hit particularly hard, dragging AMD, Broadcom, and the broader chip sector lower along with it.

On the bright side, bond yields eased as Treasury funding chatter and softer oil prices gave investors a little breathing room. Still, concerns about stubborn inflation, rising global yields, and ongoing tensions with Iran kept traders from getting too comfortable.

Meanwhile, gold continued its steady climb and Bitcoin nearly tagged $80,000 before deciding it had shown off enough for one day. Add in the latest tariff surprise aimed at Canadian autos, parts, and steel, and it’s no wonder investors seemed a bit cautious.

For now, money continues to gravitate toward hard assets and alternative stores of value while equities search for direction.

The question is: are we seeing a healthy pause before the next leg higher, or are investors starting to price in a rougher road ahead?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/21/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (223 vs. 229 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 21, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

GOLD GLITTERS, BITCOIN ROARS, AND JACKSON HOLE AWAITS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks managed to bounce today as traders looked for bargains after this week’s sharp sell-off, which was fueled largely by rising Treasury yields.

Financial stocks helped lead the recovery, while crypto-related names caught a strong tailwind as bitcoin marched toward a weekly gain of more than 20%.

The bond market remains the main story. Long-term Treasury yields continued climbing as investors wrestled with inflation concerns tied to higher oil prices.

The Treasury’s recent buyback program may have changed the mix of debt in investors’ hands, but it did little to address the bigger issue: the sheer amount of government debt the market still needs to absorb.

The pressure wasn’t limited to U.S. markets. Global stocks also struggled this week, while oil prices continued drifting higher amid Gulf supply concerns and ongoing stress in diesel and refining markets.

Even with today’s rebound, the major indexes couldn’t fully escape the week’s damage. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their first weekly declines since late July, while the Dow logged its weakest week since March.

Meanwhile, the dollar slipped as yields rose, giving precious metals another reason to shine. Gold blasted through the $4,600 level, while silver stole the show with a gain of more than 7% for the week.

But the undisputed star of the week was bitcoin. The digital heavyweight surged more than 20%, briefly flirting with $80,000 as ETF inflows accelerated and short sellers were squeezed harder than a tube of toothpaste at the end of the month.

Now all eyes turn to Jackson Hole next week. Will investors remain in a risk-off mood, or can Fed Chair Warsh deliver the reassurance needed to get bullish spirits back on track?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/20/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 20, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +9.43% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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