Indexes Grind Higher As Traders Navigate Oil Shock And War Headlines

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Oil prices jumped about 8%, but the broader market didn’t seem too rattled—at least at first. The major indexes hovered near flat in early trading, with Nvidia helping to lift tech after rolling out a new PC chip.

A lot of that tension is tied to escalating headlines out of the Middle East. Iranian state media said negotiations with the U.S. have stalled, and there were even threats to shut down the Strait of Hormuz following Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

At the same time, the situation on the ground kept intensifying, with U.S. forces reportedly intercepting Iranian missiles aimed at bases in Kuwait overnight.

Back in the market, Nvidia gave stocks a bit of a tailwind, climbing more than 3%. That momentum spilled over into PC-related names like Dell and HP, while Intel went the other way, dropping over 4% as competitive pressure showed up again.

By the afternoon, things got a lot choppier. Headlines were flying, bond yields and the dollar moved higher, and talk surfaced that U.S.–Iran negotiations might actually be back on.

Markets reacted in real time, with asset prices swinging and, interestingly, the mega-cap “Mag 7” names fading late in the session to finish roughly in line with the rest of the S&P 500.

In other corners, gold extended its pullback from Friday but managed to hold near the $4,500 level, while Bitcoin slid toward $70K—its lowest point since early April.

All in all, it was another mixed, headline-driven session. Traders stayed nimble, reacting quickly to shifting oil and geopolitical news, and the major indexes still managed to squeeze out a modest gain by the close.

The big question now—how long can the market keep brushing off this kind of uncertainty?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 05/29/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (218 vs. 231 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For May 29, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

FROM RECORD HIGHS TO MIXED SIGNALS: HOW MAY WRAPPED UP

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kept pushing higher to close out May, although the leadership was a bit mixed on the final trading day. The Dow led the way, while the Nasdaq lagged slightly—but zooming out, it’s still been a strong month overall.

On the company front, Dell Technologies stole the spotlight, with shares soaring 28% after delivering a solid earnings beat and raising its full-year outlook.

Chip names also chipped in: Micron climbed 4% and Qualcomm added 2%, continuing a rebound after earlier weakness this month. Despite some volatility, both are still on track to finish May with respectable gains.

The broader market is riding momentum from a record-setting session, helped in part by a temporary easing of geopolitical tension after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a 60-day memorandum aimed at extending a ceasefire.

That said, some analysts believe the market’s upward trend is being driven less by headlines and more by strong corporate earnings growth—a healthier foundation if it holds.

Looking at the scoreboard for May, all the major indexes are firmly in the green. The Nasdaq is leading the pack with an 8% gain, followed by the S&P 500 up 5%, and the Dow trailing with a still-solid 2% advance.

Elsewhere, it was a choppy month for bonds, with yields swinging back and forth before ending roughly unchanged.

Competing forces—rising rate hike expectations, falling oil prices, and ongoing inflation and growth concerns—kept things unsettled.

In currencies and commodities, the dollar ticked modestly higher, while gold slipped slightly after bouncing between key levels. Silver and copper managed small gains.

Crypto had a tougher go, with heavy Bitcoin ETF outflows pulling prices back toward the $72K level, leaving it down about 4% for the month after April’s strong rally.

So, after a strong May, the big question now is: does the momentum carry into June, or are we in for a slowdown after the market’s recent run?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/28/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, May 28, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.54% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Stocks Stay Resilient Despite Soft Data And Headline Chaos

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq got off to a strong start after reports that negotiators had reached a deal to extend the Iran ceasefire—but traders never fully let their guard down.

Stocks pushed to session highs once news broke that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a 60-day memorandum to keep the ceasefire in place and continue talks around Iran’s nuclear program.

That said, there’s still some uncertainty hanging over things, as President Trump hasn’t officially signed off on the deal yet.

On the macro side, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—PCE—came in a bit cooler than expected. Prices rose 0.4% in April (below the 0.5% forecast), while the annual rate held steady at 3.8%.

That softer monthly number gave markets a little hope that inflation pressures might finally be easing, even if we’re still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

By the close, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to hang on to their gains, even with the constant “peace-on, peace-off” headlines, weakening macro data, and fading rate-cut expectations.

Under the surface, small caps and the Nasdaq led the way. Small caps, in particular, got a boost from heavily shorted names, which have now ripped about 17% over the past seven sessions.

Falling bond yields also helped, with the 30-year slipping back below 5%.

That drop in yields weighed on the dollar and gave a lift to precious metals, with gold climbing back above $4,500. Bitcoin, however, went the other way—dropping to around $72K as ETF outflows pressured prices.

What’s interesting is that markets held up surprisingly well despite a string of weak economic data, including soft PCE, disappointing GDP, falling capital goods orders, and a drop in home sales.

So, my question is: how long can stocks keep shrugging off bad news before it finally starts to matter?

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Optimism Vs. Caution: Markets Caught In The Middle

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The Dow came out of the gate strong today, jumping nearly 300 points and even tagging a fresh record high early on.

A big help came from falling oil prices—down almost 5%—and a solid bounce in Procter & Gamble, which climbed more than 3% and helped lift the index.

Micron kept its momentum going too. After its massive 19% surge yesterday, that pushed it past the $1 trillion mark, the stock added another 4% today. That rally was fueled by a bullish UBS call suggesting Micron could have a lot more upside, thanks to long-term deals tied to the ongoing AI boom.

Lately, traders seem to be gravitating toward memory chip names as their preferred way to play AI.

On the macro front, traders found some encouragement in comments from President Trump, who said talks with Iran to end the conflict were “proceeding nicely.” That optimism, combined with a strong earnings season, has helped drive stocks higher this month.

That said, not everyone is convinced there’s much gas left in the tank. One strategist is calling for only a modest move higher in the S&P 500—around 2% by year-end—citing concerns over rising bond yields and inflation expectations.

Others are more optimistic, pointing to continued earnings strength and even floating targets as high as 8,000 for the index.

By the close, most of the early excitement had faded. The major indexes finished mostly flat, though the Dow did manage to hold on to a modest gain.

Bond yields ended little changed after initially rising, as reports suggested Iran peace talks might not be going as smoothly as hoped.

Elsewhere, the dollar spiked, gold briefly lost the $4,500 level before bouncing off $4,400, and Bitcoin extended its recent slide.

All in all, uncertainty was the main theme of the day, with mixed signals and ongoing geopolitical chatter leaving markets searching for a clear sense of direction.

So, the question is—are we just pausing before the next leg higher, or starting to run out of steam?

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