ETF Tracker Newsletter For June 13, 2025

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

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GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH AMID MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets opened with a thud today after Israel launched a wave of airstrikes on Iran, sending shockwaves through global markets and pushing crude oil prices up a sharp 8%.

The sudden escalation added yet another layer of uncertainty to an already tense geopolitical landscape.

Israel’s defense minister declared a special state of emergency, while U.S. officials were quick to distance themselves, confirming no involvement in the strikes. The ripple effects were immediate—energy prices surged, inflation fears reignited, and gold jumped as investors rushed to safety.

President Trump is once again urging Iran to return to the negotiating table for a nuclear deal, after the last attempt two months ago fizzled out.

On a brighter note, consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, climbing to 60.5 in June—well above expectations and marking a nearly 16% jump from the previous month.

Still, it was a rough day for stock indexes. The S&P 500 lost its grip on the 6,000 level, and even the Mag7 and heavily shorted names couldn’t stop the bleeding.

Bond yields, which had been sliding all week, bounced back after Iran’s retaliation. The dollar ended the week slightly higher, while Bitcoin—often seen as a safe haven—closed lower.

And gold? It stole the spotlight, gaining 1.48% on the day and notching a record closing high. In times like these, it’s hard to argue against its reputation as a crisis-proof asset.

With so many moving parts—from oil to inflation to global conflict—as trend followers, we’re built for moments like this—riding the waves, not fighting them.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 06/12/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, June 12, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +2.02% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Precious Metals Pop As Middle East Tensions Stir Safe-Haven Demand

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the market

Stocks started the day in the red but quickly turned things around, climbing out of the early dip and finishing solidly in the green. The major indexes all pushed above their breakeven lines, riding a wave of renewed optimism.

Fueling that positive vibe was the May Producer Price Index (PPI), which came in cooler than expected—up just 0.1% after a 0.2% drop in April. Economists were bracing for a 0.2% rise, so this softer number gave investors a bit of relief on the inflation front.

Still, Wall Street isn’t breathing easy just yet. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain front and center. President Trump hinted at flexibility on the July 8 deadline for new tariffs, not just with China but with other trading partners too. That’s keeping markets on edge.

Looking ahead, the big question is whether we’ll see a breakthrough on tariffs. A resolution could be the spark that sends markets to new highs—especially if it aligns with budget talks and the Fed’s next move. Without it, we might just drift sideways in a fog of uncertainty.

Adding to the mixed signals, Trump said the U.S. is “fairly close” to a deal with Iran—then followed it up with a cryptic comment about “something possibly happening soon in the Middle East.” Not exactly reassuring.

Despite all that, the Dow and S&P 500 managed to close at their intraday highs. The 10-year Treasury yield hit session lows, and Bitcoin also dipped—though without any clear reason.

Meanwhile, precious metals had a strong day, with gold bouncing back from recent losses and silver rebounding after slipping below $36.

With geopolitical tensions simmering, especially in the Middle East, could gold and silver be the safe havens investors turn to next?

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From Calm To Chaos: Inflation Eases, But Markets Can’t Catch A Break

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Early gains came after cooler-than-expected inflation data and news of a preliminary trade deal between the U.S. and China. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% in May—below the 0.2% forecast—and core CPI (excluding food and energy) matched that soft reading.

This suggests tariffs haven’t had a major immediate impact yet. Companies may still be working through existing inventory or hesitating to raise prices amid shaky demand.

With a 90-day pause on new tariffs, traders are shifting their focus to inflation and jobs data. If inflation stays tame—or if the job market starts to weaken—hopes for a rate cut could gain traction.

But the optimism didn’t last. Midday, markets reversed course after Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted at extending the tariff deadline, and tensions in Iraq flared up again. By the close, only the Dow managed to break even.

Mega-cap tech stocks slipped into the red for the week. Crude oil surged on renewed Middle East worries, gold jumped, and bond yields dropped as investors sought safety. The 2-year yield fell below 4%, boosting rate-cut expectations.

Meanwhile, the dollar took a hit, falling to its lowest level since July 2023.

Bitcoin dipped but found support around $109K. And with the soft CPI print, the U.S. inflation surprise index hit its lowest level since August 2020.

So, with inflation cooling and markets on edge—what’s the Fed waiting for?

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Short Squeeze Lifts Stocks, But CPI Looms Large

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets opened slightly higher again today, echoing yesterday’s start, but didn’t show much follow-through as traders stayed cautious, waiting for more clarity on U.S.-China trade talks.

The discussions in London rolled into a second day, with Commerce Secretary Lutnik sounding optimistic, saying things are “going very well” and that both sides are spending a lot of time together.

Still, traders are hoping for more than just friendly chatter—they want to see real progress, especially around reducing tariffs, not just pausing them like last month.

For now, it seems like some dialogue is better than none, but whether it’s moving the needle is still up in the air.

Trading stayed mostly rangebound, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bouncing around but leaning higher into the close, helped by another short squeeze.

Midday, the 10-year yield spiked briefly after Trump warned that Iran is becoming “much more aggressive” in nuclear talks, but yields, the dollar, and gold all ended the day pretty much flat.

Gold managed a tiny gain, while Bitcoin made a late-day surge toward the $110K mark, and Ethereum climbed to its highest level since mid-February.

Now, all eyes are on tomorrow’s CPI report.

Will inflation come in cooler than expected—and give the market something real to rally on?

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Silver Surges, Apple Slips, And Crypto Comes Alive

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets kicked off the day on a mixed note as U.S. and Chinese officials met in London, hoping to make headway on their ongoing trade disputes.

The talks stemmed from a lengthy phone call between Trump and Xi last week, with both sides aiming to avoid a full-blown trade war. As a goodwill gesture, both countries agreed to temporary tariff cuts last month while negotiations continue.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on inflation this week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) drops Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday, and a fresh read on Consumer Sentiment.

Midday optimism didn’t last long—stocks lost steam by the close, with only the Nasdaq managing a modest gain. Apple shares slipped after its much-anticipated developer conference failed to impress.

The dollar didn’t budge, but crypto made a move. Bitcoin surged over 4%, climbing toward $109K and pulling Ether up with it.

In the bond market, 10-year yields stayed flat after last week’s surge. Gold inched up slightly, but silver stole the spotlight, jumping to nearly $37—its highest level since 2011.

As ZeroHedge noted, if silver clears that level, the path to its all-time high of $50 might be wide open.

So, here’s the big question: 

Is silver finally ready to shine after all these years?

Continue reading…

2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)

Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.

This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.

Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

With no real progress on a U.S.-China trade deal, the markets drifted through the day without much direction. By the close, there wasn’t a whole lot to show—no big gains, no major losses.

Our TTIs bounced around a bit too, but in the end, the changes were pretty minor and didn’t really move the needle.

This is how we closed 06/09/2025:

Domestic TTI: +1.56% above its M/A (prior close +1.55%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.

International TTI: +6.66% above its M/A (prior close +6.87%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.

All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.

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