MARKETS RECOVER, BUT THE CREDIBILITY TEST ISN’T OVER
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
Stocks bounced back this morning, with technology shares leading the way after yesterday’s AI-fueled reality check.
Traders spent much of the day digesting OpenAI’s lower-than-expected revenue trajectory, a reminder that even in the AI boom, expectations can run faster than fundamentals.
The bigger story, though, remains the tug-of-war between growth optimism and higher interest rates.
Ten-year Treasury yields are hovering near levels not seen since 2002, while a steady stream of geopolitical headlines keeps energy markets on edge.
Gold managed a rebound, copper outperformed its metal peers, and Bitcoin clawed its way back toward $83,000 despite ETF outflows.
For me, the takeaway is that markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to credibility, whether it’s AI revenue projections, energy supply stability, or fiscal discipline.
With new lows continuing to outnumber new highs beneath the surface, are investors finally becoming a little more selective about the stories they’re willing to believe?
ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 8, 2026
How to use this StatSheet:
Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs:BUY— effective 5/20/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +3.24% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.
The link below shows all High Volume (HV) Domestic Equity ETFs. They are ranked by M-Index, which is my secret sauce for measuring momentum. Prices in all linked tables below are updated through 10/08/2026, unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication is indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%. Please note that distributions are not included in the current momentum numbers.
If the TTI is above the trend line, you can use the tables in the link below to pick your winners:
This is our global guide, the International Trend Tracking Index (green). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +2.56% and has been in “Buy” mode since 5/7/2025.
The list in the link below shows the High Volume (HV) International ETFs I track for you during a Buy cycle. They are also ranked by M-Index:
This is the mother of all lists, showing all ETFs I track and how they stack up against each other. The sorting order is by M-Index too. Momentum figures for all ETFs are not adjusted for dividends.
This is where you can find HV ETFs for specific countries or regions that I watch every week. Please note that the data in this table does not include adjustments due to distributions. Country funds can be wild beasts, so make sure you use a trailing stop loss (I use 10%) to protect yourself from nasty bites.
This is where you can diversify your portfolio by looking for different opportunities in various sectors of the market. The table of HV Sector ETFs in the following link covers a wide range of possibilities. The sorting order is by M-Index:
Here too, I recommend using a 10% trailing stop loss to limit your risk.
BOND & DIVIDEND ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY
If you like getting paid for holding ETFs, here’s a list of bond and dividend paying ETFs. But before you buy them, make sure you check their momentum figures first. Then you can visit your favorite financial web site to see their yield and other details.
Please note that the data in this table does not include adjustments due to distributions.
Please note that some of these funds try to beat the index they are tied to by a certain percentage. This can boost your returns, but it can also magnify your losses. So be careful and use a trailing sell stop (I suggest 10%) and be ready for some bumps along the way.
NEW SUBSCRIBER INFORMATION
To get a head start on more successful investing, please click on:
In case you missed it, you can download my latest e-book “How to beat the S&P 500…with the S&P 500,” here. If you are investing your 401k and must use mutual funds, I suggest you mainly stick with the S&P 500 as described in my book. Of course, you can always use the above tables to find sector or country ETFs that suit your taste and use the equivalent mutual funds as offered by your custodian.
Disclosure:
I must tell you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Also, they are not meant to be specific investment recommendations for you, they just show which ETFs from my universe are doing well right now.
Stocks started the day on the defensive as stubbornly high Treasury yields and another spike in oil kept investors on edge. The 10-year hovered around 5.28%, while crude jumped roughly 4% to about $104 as Middle East tensions intensified.
That’s not exactly the recipe the Fed ordered for bringing inflation back under control.
Rate-sensitive areas like banks and technology bore the brunt of the pressure, but the real damage came in the Nasdaq after disappointing reports about OpenAI’s revenues triggered another round of selling across tech and AI stocks.
Apparently, even artificial intelligence isn’t immune to very human expectations.
The bigger issue remains oil. Higher energy prices feed inflation, squeeze consumers, and make it harder for the Fed to ease up.
A meaningful drop in crude could quickly take some pressure off yields and stocks, but until geopolitical tensions cool, that remains a big “if.”
Elsewhere, the dollar went on a wild intraday ride but finished little changed, gold eked out a gain, and Bitcoin tumbled before finding support around $80,000.
For now, markets seem stuck between strong earnings hopes and the increasingly heavy weight of high oil prices and high real rates.
The question is: can earnings remain strong enough to pull stocks through this economic tug-of-war?
Stocks came under pressure early as the bond selloff intensified, sending the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.3% and putting both financials and technology on the defensive.
Rising oil prices added another wrinkle, reviving concerns that inflation could stay stubborn and keep rates higher for longer.
The mood improved after the $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction came in better than expected. Yields backed off their highs and stocks followed, with tech doing most of the heavy lifting as the major indexes clawed their way back from the day’s lows.
Metals never got the memo and remained weak throughout the session, while Bitcoin stumbled early before finding some support around the $83,000 area.
Bottom line, the market’s record-setting run finally encountered a little resistance as higher oil prices and stubbornly high yields reminded investors that interest rates haven’t left the building just yet.
Was today simply a healthy breather, or are the bond vigilantes getting ready for an encore?
The S&P 500 notched another fresh intraday high this morning, with tech once again doing much of the heavy lifting. Chipmakers led the charge, with Marvell jumping 7% while Nvidia and Broadcom added about 1% each.
Stocks also got some help from the bond and energy markets. Treasury yields backed off recent highs, with the 10-year slipping to 5.29%, while oil prices retreated, giving investors a little breathing room after their recent runs.
The dollar eased as well, lending support to gold. Bitcoin made an attempt at joining the party but couldn’t hold the rally and finished roughly unchanged. Apparently, not everyone got the bullish memo.
Next up are Wednesday’s Fed minutes, which could offer more clues on the thinking behind September’s rate hike.
Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns remain in the background, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries offsetting some of the recovery in Middle East product exports.
For now, the bulls still have the upper hand, but with earnings season approaching, can corporate results keep them running, or will high rates and geopolitical risks finally slow the charge?
The Nasdaq sailed to another record high, even as Treasury yields pushed higher, with the 10-year climbing to 5.33%.
The ISM Services reading of 54.9% landed roughly where expected, keeping the economic-growth story intact while traders now look ahead to Wednesday’s Fed minutes for clues on the rate outlook.
But beneath the headline gains, things were far less impressive. Market breadth weakened again, marking the 15th straight session with more new lows than new highs, while the Mag 7 continued to do much of the heavy lifting.
In other words, the indexes are partying, but the guest list remains awfully short.
Elsewhere, the dollar faded from its early highs, gold slipped back toward Friday’s lows, Bitcoin whipsawed around $85,500, and oil moved lower.
So, the market remains caught between two competing narratives: solid growth and earnings optimism on one side, and higher yields and tighter financial conditions on the other.
Can earnings strength keep overpowering rising bond yields, or will the bond market eventually spoil the party?
