Risk-Off Day – Indexes Red, Precious Metals Rally Hard

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes opened sharply lower as President Trump ramped up his tariff rhetoric again, responding to the Supreme Court’s strike-down of his “reciprocal” tariffs.

In a Monday post, he warned that any country “playing games” with the ruling—especially those that have “ripped off” the U.S. for years—would face much higher tariffs than previously agreed.

He also said duties would start immediately (though it’s unclear if official documents have been signed) and more levies are coming over the next few months.

That fresh uncertainty triggered a clear risk-off mood, reversing some of last week’s biggest winners. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all took an early hit and stayed under pressure for most of the day, with tech and growth names feeling the pain.

Gold prices surged on the renewed trade and inflation worries—spot gold up about 2%, futures nearly 3%—while silver rallied solidly +5.1%.

Bond yields dropped (10-year to its lowest since Thanksgiving), but that didn’t help equities much. The dollar ended flat, and Bitcoin had no spark, sinking to $65K—its lowest since early February.

Wall Street is now bracing for a busy week: Trump’s State of the Union address tomorrow, Nvidia earnings Wednesday, and Friday’s PPI data that could shift the policy outlook.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 02/20/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (265 vs. 272 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For February 20, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

SILVER +7%, GOLD BACK ABOVE $5,100 – METALS KEEP WINNING

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks bounced back nicely after opening lower, as the Supreme Court struck down most of President Trump’s sweeping tariff policy under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The majority ruled the law “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” which lifted retailers and companies that had been hammered by higher import and manufacturing costs last year.

The ruling didn’t address refunds for tariffs already paid, but Wall Street largely expected the decision anyway—economists think the White House will find other ways to reimpose many of the same duties, so the market reaction stayed pretty muted.

Earlier in the day, Q4 GDP came in softer than expected at 1.4% (vs. the forecasted 2.5%), a sharp slowdown from the 4.4% gain in Q3.

December core PCE inflation (the Fed’s favorite gauge) held steady at 3% YoY—above the 2% target but in line with estimates. That combo gave the Fed a bit more breathing room but didn’t spark any fireworks.

By week’s end, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied to finish higher, though uncertainty around the Court’s decision and what comes next is still the big story.

Mega-cap tech bounced back despite ongoing software weakness. Bond yields rose for the week (helping the dollar), but precious metals surged anyway—silver led with a +7% weekly gain, while gold pushed back above $5,100 for a modest weekly advance.

Bitcoin had a rough week but ended to the upside, potentially breaking out of its recent downtrend channel.

Right now, it feels like the market’s shrugging off the uncertainty and is ready for the next leg up… on the other hand, we could witness more chop until we see how the White House responds and NVDA’s earnings hit next week.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/19/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, February 19, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.39% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Data Mixed, Sentiment Cautious – Eyes On Tomorrow’s Releases

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes dipped into the red early as simmering U.S.-Iran tensions and a mixed reaction to Walmart’s results kept traders on edge.

Even though Walmart shares rose about 2% after beating Q4 expectations, its full-year earnings outlook came in disappointingly light, which weighed on sentiment.

Oil prices climbed back above $66 amid the Iran standoff over its nuclear program, adding a little more caution.

Wall Street was coming off a strong winning session yesterday (thanks to Mag 7 strength, financials, and energy), but today the macro picture was a bit of a mixed bag—good jobless claims, weak housing, and a big trade deficit.

Overall, U.S. data outperformed expectations, yet equities still lagged. The Dow led the downside, and mega-cap tech kept sliding along with it.

Bond yields eased back, the dollar extended its gains, but precious metals shrugged it off: gold climbed back above $5,000, silver picked up a modest gain, and Bitcoin clawed its way above $67k for a decent advance.

Traders are now locked in on tomorrow’s data barrage—Q4 GDP, personal income & spending, new home sales, and more. Some of these could definitely move the needle.

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Early Rally Holds – Tech & Metals Lift Indexes Higher

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes jumped right out of the gate and held onto solid gains most of the day, fueled by strength in key tech names, as traders waited for the Fed’s latest minutes and eyed the big PCE inflation report coming Friday.

Nvidia climbed more than 2% after Meta announced it’s going to load up on millions of Nvidia chips for its data-center buildout.

Amazon added 2% too, boosted by filings showing Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square grew its stake by 65% in Q4—making it the fund’s third-largest holding (nice vote of confidence after Amazon snapped a nine-day losing streak).

Oil prices popped as traders digested fresh U.S.-Iran tensions—VP JD Vance said Iran didn’t meet red lines in this week’s nuclear talks and military options are still on the table.

Macro data this morning helped too: durable goods orders beat, housing starts & permits surged more than expected, and industrial production came in strong.

The Fed minutes showed a few members open to rate hikes if needed, which nudged rate-cut expectations lower and gave bond yields a moderate lift.

The dollar broke out higher, while Bitcoin mirrored that move early then faded after the release.

Gold topped $5,000 today and closed up 2%, with silver and copper also posting positive days. Mega-cap tech did its classic pump-and-dump, but the broader market held firm.

We’re past the halfway point in February now, and history says the back half of the month usually isn’t kind to stocks.

Will it be different this time?

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