A Quiet Day From Bonds, A Loud Day For Bulls

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

With the bond market closed and no Fed officials grabbing the microphone, stocks enjoyed a rare day of relative peace and quiet.

The Nasdaq surged 1.8%, fueled by a sharp rebound in Nvidia and a blockbuster 25% jump in CoreWeave after better-than-expected results and higher guidance.

The broader tone was unmistakably risk-on. Strong demand surrounding the AI ecosystem, including enthusiasm around Anthropic’s IPO, helped lift sentiment and suggested traders may still be unwinding last week’s overly pessimistic selloff.

Interestingly, while the Mega Caps participated, the “Magnificent 7” continued to trail the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500, a healthy sign for market breadth.

Elsewhere, the dollar remained on a tear, delivering its strongest two-day run since June and knocking gold below the $4,000 level.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, finally got the memo from tech stocks and climbed back above $74,000.

For one day at least, the market traded as if inflation, rate hikes, and bond yields had taken a vacation. The real question is: will that optimistic mood survive when the bond market clocks back in tomorrow?

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Hot CPI, Hawkish Fed, And A Market Hangover

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

After yesterday’s euphoric rally, the market got a sharp reminder that gravity still exists.

A hotter-than-expected CPI report and some decidedly hawkish comments from the Fed reignited rate fears, sending stocks, bonds, gold, and crypto lower in one swift move.

The CPI came in above expectations, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled that another December rate hike is likely and even left the door open for a larger half-point move.

Bond yields responded in a hurry, with the 10-year Treasury vaulting back above 5%, its biggest one-day jump in months.

Adding to the pressure, Nvidia took another beating, helping drag down the Magnificent 7. Interestingly, the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 held up much better, finishing roughly flat.

The dollar was the day’s clear winner, climbing to multi-month highs and knocking both gold and bitcoin firmly onto the defensive.

In the end, yesterday’s celebration turned into today’s hangover.

The real question now is whether this was just a one-day reality check or the start of a more meaningful repricing of rate expectations?

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Gold Shines, Chips Recover, And Inflation Takes Center Stage

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks found their footing today, helped by a sharp drop in oil prices and a rebound in beaten-down chip names.

After last week’s AI-induced turbulence, buyers stepped back in, but the mood was more cautious optimism than all-clear celebration.

The biggest story wasn’t the bounce itself, but the questions hanging over AI. Between political concerns about future regulations and the surprise investigation involving NvidiaCEO Jensen Huang, investors suddenly have more to think about than just the next earnings beat.

Nvidia took a hit, yet the broader tech sector managed to stabilize as traders appeared to conclude that last week’s selling may have gone a bit too far.

Elsewhere, gold blasted back above $4,100, silver and copper joined the move, bond yields ticked higher, and the dollar eased.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, seemed determined to spend the weekend doing absolutely nothing, making it the financial equivalent of a teenager asked to clean the garage.

Now all eyes turn to tomorrow’s CPI report and CoreWeave’s earnings. With inflation data and AI sentiment both in play, will the market get the confirmation it wants, or another reason to keep volatility on speed dial?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/06/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (147 vs. 128 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For November 6, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

DEAD-CAT BOUNCE OR FRESH START? THE MARKET AWAITS ITS NEXT CLUE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Friday brought a little relief after Thursday’s market tantrum.

The Nasdaq bounced back as traders stepped in to scoop up beaten-down chip and AI stocks, helping the tech-heavy index recover some of the ground lost during its sharp slide into correction territory.

The S&P 500 joined the rebound, while the Dow once again played the role of the reluctant participant.

The real story of the week was concentration risk. When a handful of technology giants and semiconductor names carry so much weight, weakness in those stocks can quickly drag the broader indexes lower.

We saw that in dramatic fashion on Thursday, when the Magnificent Seven collectively shed roughly $1 trillion in market value and helped trigger the worst one-day decline since April 2025.

Today’s better-than-expected jobs report added another wrinkle to the outlook. Payrolls grew by 165,000 in October versus expectations for just 59,000, while unemployment slipped to 4.1%.

That’s good news for the economy, but it also revives concerns that the Fed may not be done tightening, which helps explain why bond yields and the dollar moved higher.

Elsewhere, gold and silver gave back some gains today but still finished the week in positive territory. Bitcoin followed the Nasdaq’s lead and climbed back above $76,000.

History suggests Nasdaq corrections often create attractive opportunities over the following three to six months, but the path is rarely smooth. After a week that felt more like a roller coaster than a market, today’s rebound was welcome.

The big question is whether it was simply the dead-cat bounce everyone expected, or the first sign that sellers are finally running out of ammunition.

With next week’s CPI report and another round of earnings on deck, are the markets trying to tell us something?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/05/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, November 5, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.72% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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