From Early Jump To Steady Green Close – Markets Stay Positive

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks jumped at the open after reports that the U.S. had delivered a 15-point peace plan to Iran aimed at ending the conflict.

The news, first reported by The New York Times and later confirmed by the Associated Press via Pakistani officials, sent crude prices tumbling.

West Texas Intermediate fell 3% to around $88 a barrel, and Brent dropped 3% to about $100. Bond yields also eased lower on the prospect of reduced geopolitical risk.

That said, the two sides still appear far apart, and attacks have continued. The Wall Street Journal noted that the U.S. is deploying the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, and President Trump said Tuesday that Iran is “talking sense” and seems eager for a deal.

Oil and interest rates continue to be the main drivers for equities right now.

The markets held onto a positive tone throughout the session but came off their early highs after macro data offered little extra support.

All the major indexes finished in the green, with small caps being the modest outperformer.

Gold bounced off its 200-day moving average and tested $4,600 before fading, while Bitcoin tested $72K and then retreated to $71K. The dollar dropped early but recovered later.

With stocks bouncing on peace-plan headlines and oil pulling back, does this feel like the market is shaking off recent weakness and gearing up for more upside… or will the next round of jawboning and tit-for-tat quickly overpower today’s bullish attempt?

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No Clear Progress On Iran – Indexes Close Moderately Red

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes started the day trying to build on Monday’s strong gains, but the momentum quickly fizzled out.

Crude oil resumed its rally as the Iran war dragged into its fourth week, adding to the uncertainty.

Traders were reacting to President Trump’s Truth Social post claiming the U.S. and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” about ending hostilities in the Middle East.

Iranian state media quickly denied any direct talks, and The Wall Street Journal reported that while closed-door discussions had taken place through intermediaries, the two sides remain far apart and Arab mediators expressed doubt about a quick deal.

In the end, the lack of clear progress left the market with more questions than answers. The indexes closed moderately in the red (except for small caps, which held up better), and the Mag 7 once again underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 by a wide margin.

Bond yields edged higher, the dollar followed suit, gold stayed stuck around $4,400, and Bitcoin slipped below $70K amid uncertainty around the U.S. Clarity Act.

With nothing resolved in the U.S.-Iran conflict, the tit-for-tat continues, and the markets are likely to keep meandering until a real resolution is accepted by all parties.

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Geopolitical Relief Fuels Gains – Ping-Pong Headlines Continue

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks rallied right from the open after President Trump posted that the U.S. and Iran have been holding talks, and he’s now halting strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

The market latched onto the hope that the Middle East conflict—which had spiked oil prices and stoked recession fears—might finally be winding down.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures plunged more than 9% to around $88 a barrel, while Brent fell over 10% to $100.

Trump’s post read: “I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” (Iran later pushed back hard on much of the rhetoric, so the truth is still murky.)

That de-escalation signal was enough to satisfy the market’s desperation for good news—at least for now. Cyclical sectors like banks and industrials surged, tech joined in, and the rally stayed broad.

Small caps were the day’s biggest winners thanks to another short squeeze, though the majors all came off their early highs to close with solid gains.

Bond yields slipped (giving equities a tailwind), the dollar tumbled, gold bounced on Trump’s comments but still ended in the red (continuing its recent unwind of leverage), silver eked out a small gain, copper advanced 3.5%, and Bitcoin moved up nicely, almost tagging $72K.

What tomorrow brings is anyone’s guess, but we can count on the headline ping-pong to keep dominating market direction.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 03/20/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (178 vs. 116 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For March 20, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

ANOTHER LOSING WEEK – INDEXES BREAK 200DMA ON IRAN FEARS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes opened weak and kept sliding throughout the week, closing out another losing stretch as traders stayed glued to the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict.

Overnight exchanges of strikes between Iran and Israel, plus new Iranian attacks on energy sites in the Persian Gulf, kept the pressure on.

The Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is sending thousands of additional Marines to the region, and Iran’s Supreme Leader doubled down on keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed as leverage.

Oil prices stayed elevated but didn’t explode further—WTI and Brent futures hovered around flat today, though both are up more than 40% since the war began.

That energy shock has kept inflation fears front and center, especially after this week’s data showed inflation “outperforming” (hotter than expected) and growth “underperforming,” bringing the dreaded “stagflation” word back into play.

The S&P 500 and other majors ended the week down roughly 2%, and what’s notable is that all of them have now broken below their 200-day moving averages—a classic bearish technical signal that could invite more selling.

The Mag 7 underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 again, bond yields climbed higher across the board (pushing rate-cut expectations lower), and the dollar reversed last week’s losses amid signs of funding stress in the global financial plumbing.

Gold plummeted to seven-week lows (likely because in a dollar shortage, it’s one of the first assets sold), while silver and the metals complex generally struggled.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, held up remarkably well and has actually advanced since the war started.

ZeroHedge summed it up perfectly: decelerating growth, rising inflation threats (and their bond market impact), already low equity risk premia, and stretched valuations are making global stocks increasingly vulnerable.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/19/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, March 19, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +1.72% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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