Is The Calm About To Break? VIX Signals Higher Volatility Ahead

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 spent most of the session treading water as rising oil prices kept buyers cautious ahead of another packed day of corporate earnings reports.

Oil moved higher after the 11th consecutive round of U.S. strikes against Iran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that Iran is “not serious about talks.”

He also reiterated that American forces would continue protecting shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies.

Traders remain focused on crude oil because sustained higher energy prices can eventually filter through to consumer goods and services, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep inflation under control.

That, in turn, has revived concerns that another rate hike could be back on the table as early as July.

Meanwhile, earnings season remains front and center. Wall Street is looking for fresh clues about AI spending, cloud-computing demand, corporate technology budgets, and management outlooks for the second half of the year.

A key question is whether the strong demand for AI infrastructure and software can continue to support the lofty valuations seen across much of the technology sector.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil to six-week highs, while bond yields jumped as rate-hike concerns resurfaced.

The combination weighed on equities, with Small Caps taking the biggest hit as yesterday’s short-squeeze rally was completely erased. The Nasdaq also finished lower, while the Dow and S&P 500 managed to end the day essentially unchanged.

Elsewhere, the dollar traded sideways, gold climbed back above the $4,150 level intraday, and Bitcoin pulled back modestly below $66,000.

So, what’s next?

One thing seems increasingly likely: higher volatility. As highlighted by ZeroHedge, historical patterns suggest the VIX may be preparing for a notable move higher.

Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen, but with rising geopolitical tensions, renewed rate-hike fears, and earnings season in full swing, traders may want to buckle up for a bumpier ride ahead.

Will the market once again shrug off these growing concerns, or is volatility finally ready to make a sustained comeback?

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Tech Leads The Charge While Gold, Silver, And Bitcoin Surge

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Despite fresh strikes on Iran and higher oil prices, stocks shrugged off geopolitical concerns and moved higher right from the opening bell.

Traders appeared more focused on a growing list of positive corporate earnings reports, with chipmakers and technology stocks leading the charge.

Earnings season continues to get off to a strong start. Industrial giant 3M surged more than 9% after delivering better-than-expected second-quarter results. General Motors also impressed investors, beating both revenue and earnings estimates and sending its shares up 3%.

So far, corporate America is largely clearing Wall Street’s hurdle. Of the roughly 66 S&P 500 companies that have reported, nearly 88% have exceeded earnings expectations. Still, the next couple of weeks could prove pivotal.

With expectations running high, traders are rewarding companies that deliver and quickly punishing those that fall short.

Today’s rally came on the heels of a weaker session driven by concerns over escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Military activity continued overnight, with both sides remaining engaged in retaliatory actions across the region, keeping geopolitical risks firmly on investors’ radar.

Even so, stocks managed to post solid gains, helped in part by the biggest short squeeze in more than a month.

Equities advanced despite rising bond yields and a stronger dollar, two factors that would normally create headwinds for risk assets.

The metals market also marched to its own beat. Gold climbed sharply to as high as $4,080, while silver surged more than 4%. Bitcoin joined the move higher, briefly approaching $67,000 before giving back a portion of its gains later in the day.

One notable shift was the return of aggressive buying in semiconductors and technology stocks.

The recent trend of investors broadening exposure into other sectors took a back seat as money flowed back into some of the market’s favorite growth names.

With earnings season heating up and geopolitical tensions still simmering in the background, which theme will have the bigger impact on markets over the next few weeks: corporate profits or global events?

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Bitcoin And Copper Stand Out While Stocks Slip Back Into The Red

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a strong start, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moving higher as oil prices swung back and forth in response to the latest developments in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

Semiconductor stocks provided additional support, helping lift the broader market early in the session.

Overnight, the U.S. carried out its ninth consecutive day of strikes on Iran.

However, sentiment improved later in the morning after Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei suggested that diplomatic channels remain open. According to him, intermediaries continue to exchange messages with Iran, raising hopes that negotiations could eventually help ease tensions.

Despite the encouraging start, the early rally ultimately ran out of steam. The major indexes steadily gave back their gains, with all three closing modestly in the red as investors continued to grapple with the uncertainty surrounding the rapidly evolving situation in the Middle East.

Elsewhere, oil posted moderate gains, while gold and silver were largely unchanged. Copper and bitcoin managed to buck the market weakness, turning in solid performances despite the decline in equities.

Bond yields moved higher, while the dollar took traders on a roller-coaster ride before ending the day little changed.

Bitcoin was choppy early on but regained its footing, climbing back above $65,500 and holding those gains even as tech stocks faded into the close.

Looking at the bigger picture, it was ultimately a day of treading water. Markets remain caught between geopolitical uncertainty and hopes for a diplomatic resolution, leaving investors hesitant to make any big moves.

Will tomorrow finally bring a clearer direction, or are we in for more of the same back-and-forth trading?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 07/17/2026

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Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (219 vs. 216 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For July 17, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

TECH TAKES A BEATING WHILE GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ADD TO MARKET JITTERS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks remained under pressure as the S&P 500 extended its decline, putting the index on track for a losing week.

Much of the weakness came from the technology sector, with the Nasdaq taking a particularly hard hit as traders continued to question whether the massive spending spree on artificial intelligence will deliver the returns many have been expecting.

Semiconductor stocks were once again at the center of the selloff. Both the iShares semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and the VanEck semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell more than 2% on the day, with SMH now down roughly 9% for the week.

The weakness added to losses from the previous session, underscoring just how quickly sentiment has turned against one of the market’s strongest groups this year.

A growing concern is the rapid progress of open-source AI models coming out of China.

Reports suggesting these models are beginning to rival offerings from OpenAI and anthropic have investors wondering whether the industry’s enormous ai spending commitments can be justified over the long run.

Outside of semiconductors, Netflix was another notable loser, tumbling more than 8% after its outlook did little to calm fears that subscriber and revenue growth may be starting to slow.

Geopolitical tensions also stayed firmly on investors’ radar. Escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran helped push oil prices higher, while reports that Iran targeted U.S. military assets in Syria and Bahrain added to concerns that the conflict could spread further across the region.

Elsewhere, bond yields moved lower over the course of the week, while the dollar traded choppily.

Gold struggled to hold above the $4,000 level, and bitcoin endured another roller-coaster week but managed to finish little changed, showing surprising resilience despite the sharp selloff in technology shares.

Stepping back, this week’s market action was largely driven by a significant shift in the macro narrative.

Cooler-than-expected inflation data reduced expectations for near-term federal reserve rate hikes, weakening the dollar and prompting traders to rethink many of the trades that had worked so well earlier this year.

As one analyst put it, “everything that has worked year-to-date suddenly seems to be moving in the wrong direction.“

The question now is whether this is simply a healthy rotation beneath the surface, or the beginning of a more meaningful change in market leadership?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/16/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, July 16, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.99% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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