Metals Surge Again – February’s Weak History In Focus

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The Dow briefly tagged a new record high early on as traders kept rotating out of tech and into more economy-sensitive names.

The broader market had a mixed day, but the tone felt like “value and cyclical stocks are back in play” after recent weakness.

In healthcare, Merck jumped more than 3% (and was the Dow’s biggest gainer at +3.5%) after crushing Q4 earnings and revenue on strong demand for its cancer immunotherapy and other products.

Pepsi added about 4% on solid organic sales growth across the board. Banks joined the party too—JPMorgan and Wells Fargo up around 2% each, Citigroup gaining about 1%.

Palantir popped 6% on strong Q4 results and upbeat guidance.

On the flip side, most tech names were in the red. Nvidia and Microsoft each shed 2%, adding to their rough start to 2026. Software stocks continued struggling—ServiceNow -7%, Salesforce -5%.

The big support came from metals: gold and silver each surged over 6%, copper ripped almost 4.5%. That helped offset the equity weakness.

The Mag 7 massively underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 again, with the majors closing mostly red (Nasdaq led the downside). Only small caps found enough juice to eke out a green finish.

Bond yields ended lower after an early spike, the dollar mirrored that softness, Bitcoin went nowhere (dipped to ~$73K but bounced back toward $76K), and silver was the most volatile — spiking 12% at one point before settling back.

Historically, February is the second-weakest month of the year—mid-month gains often vanish by the end. Will that pattern repeat this time around?

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From Risk-Off To Dip-Buying – Markets Shake Off The Weekend

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes opened with some early juice as Wall Street kicked off a fresh month, shrugging off last week’s drama in silver and bitcoin.

The mood quickly steadied, and by the end we closed solidly higher across the board—dip buyers stepped in and lifted everything.

Bitcoin had a rough go early, dipping below $80,000 for the first time since April (a clear sign of risk-off vibes after Friday’s bloodbath in metals).

Silver had plunged around 30% on Friday—its worst single-day drop since 1980—while gold fell about 10% in what many called one of the most blatant short squeezes to bail out leveraged bank positions.

Both metals (and BTC) bounced off their lows today, trimming losses and helping ease the broader risk-off pressure. Bitcoin recovered above $78K, gold and silver each down roughly 4% by the close.

Traders also kept an eye on Nvidia amid growing questions about AI spending. Reports surfaced that Nvidia’s planned $100 billion investment in OpenAI has stalled, with execs expressing doubts about the deal. Nvidia shares slipped about 1%.

Earnings season ramps up this week with over 100 S&P 500 companies reporting, including Amazon and Alphabet (both higher today). Season’s been solid so far, though we’ve seen some high-profile post-earnings dumps (Microsoft being a recent example).

Bond yields rose on strong manufacturing data, giving the dollar a modest rebound.

When the Dow powers ahead like this while the broader market plays catch-up, it feels likes classic rotation into value and stability… or are tech and growth names just taking a breather?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 01/30/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (276 vs. 272 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For January 30, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

WARSH PICK CALMS FED FEARS – STOCKS DIP, METALS PULL BACK 

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes headed lower pretty much all day, with tech shares staying in a funk.

Traders were largely okay with President Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve—his experience as a former Fed governor and occasional hawkish stance on inflation eased some worries about Fed independence.

Markets see him as someone who might push for lower rates short-term (what Trump wants) but won’t just rubber-stamp every White House wish, preserving some credibility for policy.

That said, stocks couldn’t shake the weakness. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq are still on track for a positive January—each up more than 1% for the month so far.

Gold spot prices fell 16% from yesterday’s highs, silver plunged 39%, signaling comfort with Warsh’s more hawkish lean. Even after today’s sell-off, gold and silver remain way higher for the month (+12% and +14%) and for the past year (+72% and +164%).

Bond yields ticked higher after hotter-than-expected December core producer price index data (up 0.7% vs. the expected 0.3%). Apple inched lower despite beating Q1 earnings and revenue (helped by strong iPhone sales), while SanDisk popped 22% on upbeat guidance.

Equity markets were volatile this week but finished January higher overall—small caps led, Nasdaq lagged, and the Mag 7 basket ended the month in the red.

The dollar got dumped for the third straight month, while Bitcoin rode its usual rollercoaster—tanked early but erased the losses by the close.

Risk and volatility are always around the corner. Right now, the big disconnect between stocks at record highs and the huge gap to rate-cut expectations could pull the punchbowl away if the Fed stays cautious.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/29/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, January 29, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.17% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Tech Selloff Hits Hard – Silver Swings Wild, Gold Holds 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened sharply lower, dragged down hard by Microsoft after its latest earnings miss.

The stock tanked 11%—its worst day since March 2020—on slower cloud growth and soft margin guidance for the next quarter.

That sparked fresh worries that AI might disrupt even Microsoft’s core business model, so software names got hit too: ServiceNow dropped 12% (even after beating estimates), Oracle fell 5%, and Salesforce slid 8%. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the pain early on.

The pressure’s now squarely on Apple (reporting after the bell today). On a brighter note, Meta jumped 7% after a stronger-than-expected Q1 sales outlook.

By the close, most of the red sea had been wiped out—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished lower but well off their session lows. Breadth actually looked healthy: more stocks up than down, even with mega-tech getting battered early. The Mag 7 bounced back to a green close for the day.

Copper had a wild ride but recovered strongly, gaining over 5% (CPER). Gold (GLD) eked out a modest gain after some chop, silver swung from a high of $122 down to $107 before nearly clawing back to flat, and Bitcoin wasn’t so lucky—dipping to the $84K level and staying there.

Bond yields slipped, the dollar pumped and dumped to end unchanged. Crypto and risk assets like BTC tend to move with liquidity—when it’s plentiful, they rally; when it tightens (like now, with the yen carry trade unwinding), they pull back.

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