Stocks jumped this morning after President Trump announced he was suspending attacks on Iran for two weeks, pausing a five-week conflict that had closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent markets reeling.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbled more than 17% to $93.42 a barrel following the news.
Trump posted on Truth Social that he agreed to the pause after receiving a “10-point proposal” from Iran, calling it a workable basis for negotiations. The ceasefire is contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and both Israel and Iran have signaled agreement for now.
The initial euphoria lifted the major indexes, and despite some fading later in the day due to lingering uncertainty, they closed with solid green gains. All three reclaimed their 200-day moving averages, which is a technically positive development.
Bond yields ended unchanged, the dollar tumbled, gold surged back above $4,850 before slipping to $4,750 at the close, and Bitcoin gushed toward $73K before fading but still finished nicely higher than its pre-war levels around $65K.
Euphoria reigned for much of the day, but the fog of war is still thick. If this turns out to be just a temporary pause with more fighting ahead, we could easily give back today’s gains and then some.
The major indexes started the day in the red as President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz loomed large, with hopes for a quick agreement fading fast.
Trump’s latest Truth Social post added to the drama, warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if no deal is reached, though he left a small door open for a “revolutionarily wonderful” outcome if cooler heads prevail.
In the end, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to climb out of their early hole and closed slightly in the green, while the Dow fell just short of flat.
Oil was extremely volatile, reacting to every headline and comment, and the Mag 7 lagged the rest of the S&P 493 again, with Apple weighing on the group after negative news about its foldable phone.
Bond yields retreated in the afternoon as oil eased, the dollar tumbled, gold treaded water most of the day but eked out a 1% gain on late peace-talk optimism, and Bitcoin sank to $67K before bouncing off that level.
Who knows what’s next—all that really matters is what happens (or doesn’t happen) after the 8 p.m. ET deadline tonight.
The major indexes opened higher, building on last week’s gains as oil prices eased back and traders weighed the chances that the U.S.-Iran war could be wrapping up soon.
Reports suggested the U.S., Iran, and some regional mediators are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire that might lead to a permanent deal, though the odds of getting even a partial agreement before Tuesday’s deadline look slim.
Another idea floating around involves a plan put together by Pakistan that could trigger an immediate ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as early as Monday.
Midday, the indexes pulled back toward flat, but Trump’s comment that “he can’t talk about a cease-fire” with Iran actually sparked fresh bullish sentiment and helped push us to another green close.
Besides the war news, the “stagflation” scenario crept back into focus—growth is moving sideways while inflation ticks higher.
Bond yields were little changed, the dollar opened stronger then faded, and gold traded in a tight range to finish basically flat.
The real standout was Bitcoin, which surged and recaptured the $70K level, where it’s holding for now.
Despite all the uncertainty, traders are also keeping an eye on seasonals, which historically favor April.
Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +1.55% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.
The Dow opened with a sharp 600-point drop as traders kept watching the Iran war and rising oil prices (crude surged around 11%).
But the major indexes staged a solid comeback after Iranian state media said the country is working with Oman on a protocol to let ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz again.
One analyst put it this way: “It’s pivotal for the United States that the Strait is reopened, not so much because of oil but because of helium. Currently in our own domestic economy, helium is more valuable than foreign oil because it’s used to cool the processing of semiconductors and there is no substitute for it.”
President Trump gave an address Wednesday night, saying the U.S. is “getting very close” to ending the war but warning that America would “hit Tehran extremely hard” if needed.
In the end, only the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed tiny gains, while the Dow closed a tad lower.
For the holiday-shortened week, the indexes rebounded nicely and posted their first up week since the war began. The Mag 7 showed signs of life again by outperforming the rest of the S&P 493.
Bond yields eased, the dollar weakened, gold rallied strongly (holding firm despite an overnight plunge), and Bitcoin ended marginally higher than Friday’s close.
Some traders are heading into the long Easter weekend with a bit of optimism, mainly because April has historically been one of the best months for global stocks (along with November), and the S&P 500 also seasonally tends to perform well in April.
Continue reading…
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy”Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The day started with a sharp sell-off that had everything looking pretty ugly early on.
But the dip turned out to be short-lived — the major indexes clawed back most of their losses and ended up closing right around the unchanged line.
Nothing dramatic, just a quiet recovery.
Our TTIs followed a similar script. They pulled back with the market early but recovered later; in the end, only the domestic TTI managed to squeeze out a small green close.
This is how we closed 04/02/2026:
Domestic TTI: +1.55% above its M/A (prior close +1.40%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.17% above its M/A (prior close +4.78%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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The major indexes kicked off the new month on a positive note, climbing steadily as fresh hope emerged that the U.S.-Iran war could be winding down.
President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s president had asked for a ceasefire, though he added the U.S. would only consider it once the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and clear.”
This came after he told reporters he expects U.S. forces to leave Iran in “two or three weeks.”
That optimism helped fuel a solid rebound, especially after the choppy end to March. The indexes closed with nice green gains, the Nasdaq leading the way.
The Mag 7 had their best two-day stretch in nearly a year, though some momentum faded late. Small caps and broader participation also looked healthy.
Oil prices eased off their recent highs, bond yields stayed relatively calm, and the dollar dropped for the second straight day.
Gold accelerated higher and tested $4,800, silver treaded water, and Bitcoin topped $69K twice before pulling back to roughly flat.
Positive U.S. macro data (strong retail sales, resilient manufacturing, and solid jobs) helped, even as inflation ticked higher.
In the end, it was another wild 24 hours of energy market swings and ceasefire claims/denials — classic headline ping-pong.
