Ceasefire Expiration Looms – Markets Tread Carefully

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened lower as tensions between the U.S. and Iran heated up over the weekend, but traders are still holding onto hope that the two sides will eventually reach some kind of compromise.

President Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, and he once again threatened to blow up Iran’s power plants and bridges if no deal is reached. The current ceasefire is set to expire this week.

By the end of the session, oil prices were higher while stocks finished only modestly lower.

Small caps were the clear winner thanks to another strong short squeeze, while the Nasdaq lagged. The Mag 7, which had outperformed recently, pulled back and underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 today.

Bond yields opened higher but ended unchanged, rate-cut expectations improved slightly, the dollar chopped around, and gold finished a bit in the red. Bitcoin slid over the weekend but made a strong comeback and climbed back above $76K.

At this point, price momentum and solid earnings are helping offset the geopolitical disappointments. But if the peace narrative starts to look fragile or falls apart, the market could follow suit quickly.

Read More

ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 04/17/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (220 vs. 245 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For April 17, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

IRAN REOPENS STRAIT – STOCKS ROCKET HIGHER ON CEASEFIRE HOPES

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks rocketed higher on Friday after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” following a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon. The news removed a major supply disruption fear and sent oil prices tumbling.

West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 14% to around $80 a barrel, while Brent fell 13% to about $86.

President Trump thanked Iran for reopening the strait and said the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports will stay in place until a full peace agreement is reached, adding that the process “should go very quickly.”

Despite some confusing and conflicting headlines, traders didn’t care — they pushed stocks, gold, and Bitcoin sharply higher. Rate-cut odds also improved.

The Nasdaq 100 extended its winning streak to 13 straight days (its longest since July 2013).

Since the war began, stocks have massively outperformed bonds, though breadth remains weak. The Mag 7 showed strength again, and small caps joined the party.

Bond yields dropped, the dollar fell for the third week in a row, gold spiked toward $4,900, silver outperformed, and Bitcoin surged above $78K for the first time since early February — solidly outperforming gold since the conflict started.

To me, the big question now is whether this jawboning and relentless headline ping-pong can actually turn into a sustainable truce, so today’s advances aren’t wiped out by the next sudden jerk.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/16/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, April 16, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.32% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

Read More

Stocks Rebound Strongly – Iran Deal Optimism Fuels Gains

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped after hitting fresh record highs earlier in the session, but they recovered nicely by the close.

Both indexes are on track for a strong week, with the S&P up about 3% and the Nasdaq gaining more than 4%, while the Dow is up around 1%.

Milestones were hit on Wednesday: The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time ever, and the Nasdaq closed above 24,000 for the first time.

The lift came after President Trump said the Iran war is “very close to over” and announced upcoming talks between Israel and Lebanon. Halting attacks on Lebanon has been a key condition for broader Iran negotiations.

Stocks have now fully recovered all losses since the war began in late February.

We’re basically back to where we were valuation-wise and sentiment-wise before the conflict, but for the rally to keep going, we’ll likely need to see it broaden out beyond just the Nasdaq and big tech.

Headlines continue to drive direction. ZeroHedge summed up the key ones today as:

GOOD: Trump says talks with Iran are looking very promising — less pain

BAD: Gulf and European officials think a deal could take 6 months — more pain

UGLY: Trump warns that if no deal, fighting will resume — serious pain

Bond yields rose, the most-shorted stocks continued to get squeezed, and the dollar went nowhere.

Gold stayed flat around $4,800, while Bitcoin tested $73K before bouncing back toward $75K.

Relentless hope for a negotiated settlement with Iran, combined with resilient economic data, has kept the rally alive — at least for now.

Read More

Tech-Driven Rally Continues – Metals & Bitcoin Sideways

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq got off to a strong start, with the S&P moving to a new all-time intraday high as traders stayed hopeful that a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war could materialize soon.

Broadcom was one of the standout performers, rising 3% after Meta extended its partnership to deploy custom chips using Broadcom’s technology.

This followed a very strong prior session — the S&P 500 has now surpassed its previous all-time high of 7,002.28 from January 28, marking its ninth positive session out of the last ten.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also posted its 10th straight gain and hit a fresh record high.

President Trump added to the optimistic mood, saying “We’ve been called by the other side — they’d like to make a deal very badly,” and later telling Fox Business that the war is “very close to over.”

Higher oil prices (and the equity strength) pushed bond yields up by about 3–4 basis points across the curve. The dollar traded sideways, while gold limped lower but stayed comfortably above $4,800.

Bitcoin also traded sideways, holding $74,000 as support for now.

In the end, equities seemed to decouple from oil, and bonds underperformed. It felt more like a narrow, tech-driven move than a true broadening of the rally.

Read More