1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 started the day pretty flat, while the Dow was still riding the momentum from its fresh record close in the previous session, helped by optimism around a potential U.S.–Iran deal.

One of the biggest stories was SpaceX, which kept its post-IPO hype going with another 10% jump. The move briefly pushed its market cap past both Microsoft and Amazon during the session—pretty wild for a company that just went public last week.

Meanwhile, oil continued to slide. Brent crude dropped about 3% to around $80 per barrel, even dipping below that level briefly for the first time since March.

Easing geopolitical tensions, including news that Pakistan and its counterpart agreed to end military operations, added to the downward pressure. There were also comments about the Strait of Hormuz reopening, which helped accelerate the drop in oil prices.

Despite the generally upbeat backdrop, investors aren’t exactly worry-free. Inflation remains the top concern for 34% of traders, while 28% are increasingly uneasy about a potential AI bubble forming.

By the closing bell, the story was mixed. The Dow managed to hold onto gains, but tech stocks struggled, dragging the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into the red.

Even falling oil prices couldn’t give tech much of a lift, though consumers may welcome some relief at the gas pump.

In other markets, bond yields moved lower, with the 30-year dropping well below 5% to its lowest level since April. The dollar softened, gold edged slightly higher, and Bitcoin slipped back below $66K.

Now, with the FOMC meeting up next and triple witching later this week, the big question is whether the AI-driven momentum can keep carrying the market—or if these headwinds will finally start to bite.

So, will bullish sentiment keep winning out, or are we about to see a reality check?

1. Moving the market

U.S. stocks got off to a solid start, helped by a bounce in chip names after taking a beating earlier in the week—even as tensions between the U.S. and Iran heated up.

Oil spiked early after Trump posted that the U.S. would hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT” and even floated taking control of key oil infrastructure like Kharg Island. That kind of talk had energy markets on edge right out of the gate.

Meanwhile, the chip sector flipped the script. Names like Micron, AMD, and Intel rebounded nicely, and the semiconductor ETF jumped about 3%.

That’s a welcome move after last Friday’s brutal 10% drop, which had traders wondering if the sector’s monster run was finally losing steam.

Adding to the optimism, there’s growing buzz around SpaceX’s debut tomorrow, which could shine a spotlight on continued AI-driven demand.

On the data front, inflation came in mixed. Producer prices rose 1.1% in May—hotter than expected—but core PPI (stripping out food and energy) was a bit cooler than forecasts. So, not exactly a clear signal, but not a dealbreaker either.

Then came the plot twist.

By midday, Trump completely reversed course, saying there would be “no strikes on Iran tonight” and that a deal was basically done.

Just like that, the market snapped out of its sideways grind and shot higher. Oil gave back its earlier gains, dragging energy stocks down, while the broader indexes took off.

Under the hood, the Mag 7 lagged again compared to the rest of the market, while falling bond yields pressured the dollar—giving gold a boost from $4,000 to $4,200. Even Bitcoin joined the party, pushing back above $63,500.

All in all, a headline-driven day with plenty of twists. With the SpaceX IPO on deck tomorrow, will today’s bullish momentum carry through—or was this just another knee-jerk reaction?