ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 05/24/2024

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (278 vs. 267 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For May 24, 2024

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

NASDAQ LEADS MARKET REBOUND AS TECH STOCKS RALLY DESPITE RATE CUT HOPES DIMMING

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the markets

The major indexes inched higher trying to recover from yesterday’s drubbing, the worst since March 2023. The Nasdaq led the rebound, and the Dow lagged.

Despite hopes being dashed that the Fed may cut rates this summer, enthusiasm for Nvidia and other tech companies lifted the major indexes with the Nasdaq sprinting ahead by over 1%.

The latest earnings reports were mixed with Workday falling more than 10%, while Intuit surrendered over 8% due to weak guidance. Deckers Outdoor bucked the trend with an 11% surge.

On the economic side, demand for Durable Goods surprised to the upside, as orders for long-lasting items like appliances, cars and airplanes rose 0.7% for the month, which was better than the consensus estimate for a 1% drop. Despite new orders being flat, these robust data points diminished traders’ hopes for a rate cut.

Services and Manufacturing data also surpassed forecasts from economists, while weekly jobless claims signaled the weakness in the labor market may have halted. Again, none of these numbers will affect the Fed’s current position of “higher for longer.”

As ZH pointed out, after six straight weeks of ‘weakness’, US Macro Surprise data surged higher this week (good news) — it’s biggest positive weekly shift since January. To no surprise, this sent rate cut expectations tumbling.

The MAG7 stocks recovered from yesterday’s sell off and rallied for the fifth straight week to a new record high, thereby surpassing the comparison to Cisco’s historical performance.

Bond yields climbed to end the week higher, with the 2-year storming towards its 5% level. That was its biggest weekly yield increase in almost 2 months.

The dollar rode the roller coaster but ended higher after last week’s losses. That pulled gold off its lofty level, but the precious metal easily defended its $2k marker.

Bitcoin recovered from yesterday’s drop and bounced back to $69k, as oil prices ended lower on the week and losing its $78 support zone.

A tip of the hat goes to ZH for pointing out another decoupling, namely between US Reserve balances and Market Capitalization. It’s another alligator snout that eventually will snap shut.   

If history is any indication, market capitalization will take a hit—and that would mean lower equity prices.  

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/23/2024

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, May 23, 2024

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— since 11/21/2023

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.40% and is in “Buy” mode as posted.

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Market Paradox: Nvidia Shines, Dow Dives Amid Stagflation Concerns

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the markets

The Nasdaq jumped to a new record early on, as traders dug into the latest quarterly results from tech darling Nvidia, which smashed expectations, as its momentum does not seem to slow. Consequently, the stock surged over 10% sending it shares above $1,000.

AI is the latest theme, and companies are spending on this technology with Nvidia supplying the infrastructure on the future downstream economy. The excitement about this sector is not waning, and the future looks positive for this part of the economy.

While traders had hoped that Nvidia’s blow-out earnings report would be a moment of truth and lift all markets, that did not happen, as the adage “buy the rumor, sell the fact” pulled the broad indexes lower. The markets plunged, with the Dow faring the worst, puking 600 some points. So much for all the hype.

Keeping underlying bullish hopes at bay were comments from JPMorgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, who sang from my hymn sheet by saying that “the worst outcome for the U.S. economy will be a ‘stagflation’ scenario, where inflation continues to rise, but growth slows amid high unemployment.”

He also added that interest rates could still go up “a little bit.”

Boeing got hit hard, the short squeeze ran out of ammo, and the MAG7 stocks gave back most of their early “rip.” Bond yields were higher across all maturities, which catapulted the dollar higher but slammed gold again.

Bitcoin touched its $70k level and was abandoned. Oil prices rode the roller coaster but only closed lower by a moderate margin.

Looking at the big picture, it’s clear that we are stuck in a stagflation environment, which will likely not motivate the Fed into cutting rates.

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Nvidia’s Moment Of Truth: Can AI Earnings Offset Fed’s Inflation Alarm?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the markets

Stocks traded near the flatline for most of the day, as investors looked ahead to the widely anticipated release of Nvidia’s latest earnings report due out after the close.

However, the released minutes from the May Fed meeting proved to be more than traders were able to handle. They not only admitted a lack of progress in recent months towards lower inflation, but also had a variety of members discussing a willingness to hike rates, should inflation refuse to move lower towards their stated 2% goal.

Ouch! That took traders and algos by surprise and south we went, with the major indexes quickly dropping in the red.

Nvidia’s earnings announcement has become one of the most important events on traders’ datebook, as the AI spectrum has been the main spark of this rally.  

Additionally, Wall Street’s relentless optimism for rate cuts by the Fed sometime this year seems to offer assurance that the markets could maintain their elevated levels even in case Nvidia’s earnings disappoint.

Sure, the Fed could very well drop rates a notch later this year, but that might be more for political reasons than economic ones. On the other hand, the economy keeps sliding with today’s unexpected drop in existing home sales being indicative of a cooling housing market.

Looking at the big picture, I see inflation data continue to surprise to the upside, while economic growth surprises to the downside, a phenomenon we’ve been watching for a while.

Today’s sell off took the MAG7 stocks down as well, with bond yields presenting a mixed picture, as rate cut expectations dropped. The dollar gained, but gold got spanked with prices retreating to mid-month levels.   

Bitcoin edged higher by a tad, hovering around its $70k level all day, as oil prices retreated toward their $77 support point.  

Will Nvidia’s earnings be able shake off the hawkish tone of today’s session?

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Traders Brace For Nvidia Earnings: Rally Or Sell-Off?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the markets

The major indexes hugged their unchanged lines today, hanging on to the record levels seen in the previous session, as traders eagerly looked toward Nvidia’s earnings report tomorrow. However, a last hour lift insured a green close.

There are two ways to view this important earnings announcement. On one hand, traders are heavily invested in the stock, so if the numbers are good, they won’t miss out on the instant rally. On the flipside, should the numbers be disappointing, a sell-off may be fast and furious.  

Also, traders are listening to what the Fed’s mouth pieces are uttering. For example, Fed Governor Waller said he wants to see “several months” of supportive inflation data before lowering rates. Others, like Barkin and Bostic are due to voice their opinions later.

It’s interesting to note that traders have “brushed aside” several components of inflation amid some concerning consumer data points. Again, Wall Street has a hard time accepting the fact that “stagflation,” namely weak or no economic growth and continuing inflation, surrounds us.  

It’s a quiet story and, while traders and algos have priced the markets for perfection, there are many events that could either disrupt the current scenario or even bring it to an abrupt end. However, for the time being, we remain in bullish mode.

Bond yields slipped wiping out most of yesterday’s dash, with the dollar whipsawing but erasing Friday’s losses.  Bitcoin stumbled from its overnight surge, while gold hurried around all session but did not make any headway.

Temporary relief for consumers arrived at the pump, as the Biden Administration announced the release of its strategic gas reserve causing wholesale prices to retreat. Still, it looks like gas prices this coming Memorial weekend will be the second most expensive in a decade, as ZH pointed out.

That will matter this coming weekend. Right now, all eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings report. Will it help the bulls, or will bears find reason to rejoice?

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