ETF Tracker Newsletter For September 4, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

THE FED JUST GOT MORE DATA… AND MORE REASONS TO STAY TOUGH

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

This morning’s jobs report was the story of the day. August payrolls came in at 162,000, far above expectations, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains surprisingly resilient.

That was enough to push bond yields higher and nudge Fed rate hike odds upward ahead of the September meeting.

At first, stocks didn’t like the idea of a more hawkish Fed and sold off. But by the closing bell, the market had largely steadied itself, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing little changed on the week.

Energy stocks were the standout winners, helped by record diesel prices that are reigniting concerns about inflation’s second act.

Elsewhere, the dollar took a hit, gold had a rough week, and Bitcoin briefly climbed above $82,000 before the jobs data reminded traders that interest rates still matter.

The bigger takeaway? Talk of stagflation is creeping back into the conversation as higher energy costs collide with signs of slower industrial growth.

Now, all eyes turn to next week’s CPI report. Today’s jobs number grabbed the headlines, but CPI could ultimately decide whether the Fed reaches for another rate hike or keeps its powder dry.

So, was today’s market reaction just a warm-up act before the main event?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/03/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 3, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.36% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Lower Yields Light A Fire Under Equities, Gold, And Crypto

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market finally found an excuse to smile today. Stocks rallied sharply as Treasury yields backed away from their recent highs after Fed Governor Waller suggested he’d be inclined to support holding rates steady, assuming upcoming inflation data doesn’t throw a curveball.

That comment was enough to shift the mood on Wall Street. Rate hike expectations eased, bond yields moved lower, and traders suddenly looked a lot more comfortable putting money back to work. A stronger yen also helped reinforce the decline in yields, giving equities an added tailwind despite oil prices remaining stubbornly high.

The weaker dollar added another layer to the story. Gold jumped 2.5% and reclaimed the $4,500 level, silver matched the move, and bitcoin decided subtlety was overrated, surging 5% to its highest close since mid-May above $81,000.

Of course, today’s optimism now faces its first real test tomorrow morning. With the jobs report and unemployment data on deck, the market may soon find out whether today’s rally was the start of something bigger or just a well-timed dress rehearsal.

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A Softer Dollar, Stronger Metals, And A Market Rebound

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Treasury yields finally took a breather after their recent sprint to multiyear highs, and stocks were happy to take the invitation, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all snapping their three-day losing streaks.

The bigger story hasn’t changed, though. Oil remains parked around the $90-mark, geopolitical tensions are keeping energy traders on edge, and the Fed looks less inclined to shrug off higher energy costs than it did a few months ago. That’s keeping valuation pressure firmly in place.

One bright spot today was the weaker dollar, which gave precious metals a tailwind. Gold resumed its march toward new highs, while silver and copper joined the celebration. Bitcoin, meanwhile, seemed perfectly content to watch from the bleachers and do absolutely nothing.

For now, the market’s message is pretty straightforward: lower yields helped stocks catch their breath, but higher energy prices are still the elephant in the room. The question is, which gives way first… oil or investor optimism?

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September Starts With A Hangover: Stocks, Gold, And Bitcoin All Slip

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

September got off to a rough start, with inflation concerns and a 6% jump in oil prices pushing bond yields higher around the world and putting pressure on nearly every asset class.

The rising rate backdrop weighed heavily on tech, with names like Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, and Alphabet leading the retreat.

What really mattered today was the continued surge in global yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury climbed to its highest level since early 2025, while yields in Japan and Germany hit multi-year highs.

Traders are clearly wondering whether sticky inflation and higher energy costs could keep the Fed in a more hawkish mood when it meets later this month.

The stronger dollar was another key story, knocking bitcoin back toward the $77,000 area and sending gold below $4,400.

Add in renewed Middle East tensions and September’s less-than-stellar reputation for stocks, and it felt like the market showed up after a long weekend in a particularly grumpy mood.

The question now is whether today’s selling was just an uneasy start to September, or the beginning of a more persistent seasonal headwind.

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Geopolitics Trips Up Stocks As Gold, Silver, And Bitcoin Shine

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market spent the final trading day of August looking over its shoulder as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran rattled investors.

Stocks moved lower, oil jumped about 3%, and rising long-term Treasury yields added another headwind for equities. Sometimes the market worries about one thing at a time. Today it generously chose two.

That said, it’s worth keeping the bigger picture in mind. Despite August’s geopolitical flare-ups, inflation concerns, and bond market volatility, stocks still finished the month in positive territory, led by technology shares.

The Dow scored a fifth straight monthly gain, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their first monthly advances since May.

What really stood out this month wasn’t just stocks. Gold climbed roughly 10%, silver surged nearly 19%, and Bitcoin delivered its strongest monthly performance since late 2024 by gaining 25%.

With fiscal deficits remaining large, central banks continuing to accumulate gold, and the dollar trending weaker, the case for the “debasement trade” remains very much alive.

So, while today’s headlines focused on missiles and market nerves, is the bigger story still the steady migration toward hard assets and stores of value?

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