ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 2, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

BAD JOBS NEWS, GOOD MARKET NEWS: BULLS TAKE THE WHEEL

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks jumped out of the gate this morning, after a surprisingly weak jobs report sent bond yields lower and raised hopes that the Fed may keep rates unchanged in October.

September payrolls increased by just 29,000, well short of the 84,000 expected, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Ouch.

But in today’s market, bad economic news can quickly become good news for stocks if it keeps the Fed on the sidelines.

The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 2 basis points to 5.216%, while the 2-year recovered from an initial drop to finish roughly flat. Fed-funds futures responded accordingly, putting the odds of no October hike at 86%, up from about 76% yesterday.

Tech led the charge as investors rediscovered their appetite for risk. Nvidia reached an all-time high for the first time since May, while Intel and AMD both gained more than 4%.

One trader even floated the possibility that the long-awaited Santa Claus rally may be getting an early start. October 2 seems a little early to hang the Christmas lights, but Wall Street loves getting ahead of itself.

Elsewhere, the picture was more complicated. Oil initially dropped sharply on reports that European countries were considering releasing strategic fuel reserves, although Brent remained above $100. The dollar surged as European fiscal concerns pressured the euro.

Gold briefly spiked after the payroll report but quickly gave it back, retreating toward the week’s lows with $4,200 looking like resistance for now.

Bitcoin had a strong week as well, breaking through $85,000 and topping $87,000 before reversing sharply this afternoon as real yields moved higher.

What’s interesting is that investors aren’t simply flipping between “risk-on” and “risk-off.”

Money is flowing into equities for AI growth, Treasuries for increasingly attractive 5%-plus yields, and gold for insurance, while investors pull back from high-yield credit and energy.

In other words, this market seems perfectly comfortable having several opinions at the same time.

So, did today mark the beginning of a more durable shift in market sentiment, or was it simply another Friday flirtation with optimism?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/01/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 1, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +2.08% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Stocks Dodge A Yield Curveball And Claw Back To Even

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started October on the back foot as surging Treasury yields pressured the broader market, despite blockbuster earnings from Micron.

The 10-year yield briefly climbed above 5.34%, touching levels not seen in roughly 24 years, while the 30-year pushed above 5.66%.

That’s becoming the market’s elephant in the room. Stocks remain near record highs, but with bonds offering increasingly attractive returns, the old “there is no alternative” argument for equities is getting a serious stress test.

Micron delivered spectacular numbers, with quarterly revenue reportedly quadrupling, yet the stock slipped about 3%. After a 200%+ run this year, apparently even blockbuster earnings need a blockbuster encore.

Fortunately, yields retreated from their highs as the session progressed, allowing the major indexes to crawl out of their early hole and finish around unchanged. The Mag 7 lagged the broader S&P 493, while the dollar strengthened amid weakness in Europe.

Elsewhere, WTI crude rose above $91 as traders remained focused on the Iran conflict, while gold managed to stay green despite dollar strength. Bitcoin added some excitement of its own, briefly jumping toward $85,000.

October has a reputation for volatility, but it has also earned the nickname “Bear Killer” for several memorable market reversals.

With yields still calling much of the tune, was today’s comeback simply a reprieve, or are the bulls already warming up for another October surprise?

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Cooling Inflation Meets Red-Hot Yields: What Gives Next?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got an early lift as September wrapped up, helped by a friendlier-than-expected inflation report.

Both headline and core PCE cooled, giving traders some hope that the Fed may not need quite as heavy a hand going forward.

But the bond market wasn’t exactly celebrating. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed toward 5.3%, keeping pressure on equities despite falling oil prices.

That’s the real issue here: inflation may be improving, but stubbornly high yields remain a formidable headwind for stocks.

Next up is Friday’s jobs report, which could quickly reshuffle expectations for the Fed’s next move.

With October’s reputation for volatility and the midterm elections approaching, the fourth quarter certainly won’t be lacking for potential plot twists. Wall Street does love a little drama.

Will cooler inflation finally tame bond yields, or is the fourth quarter about to give us another roller-coaster ride?

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Stocks Stumble, Gold Bounces, And October Waits In The Wings

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Bond yields were once again calling the tune today, keeping the major indexes on the defensive after yesterday’s losing session.

The 10-year hovered near levels not seen since 2007, while the 30-year remained near multi-decade highs, giving investors plenty to chew on.

Some relief came from oil, which dropped nearly 4% as Middle East tensions showed signs of easing and Saudi pipeline capacity began coming back online. Rate fears also cooled somewhat late in the session, helping stocks recover from their worst levels.

Still, the major indexes finished lower, with the Mag 7 lagging the broader S&P 493. The dollar strengthened, gold managed a respectable rebound from yesterday’s drubbing, while Bitcoin essentially went nowhere.

The good news?

We’re about to put historically rough late-September seasonality in the rearview mirror, and October, particularly in Midterm years, has often been a friendlier stretch. Of course, Wall Street has learned the hard way that seasonality is a tendency, not a guarantee.

With September nearly behind us and October knocking on the door, will the bulls finally answer?

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The Indexes Wobble As Warning Signs Pile Up

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started the week under pressure as higher oil prices and another surge in bond yields gave the bulls a rude Monday-morning wake-up call.

Brent crude jumped more than 2% to around $107 a barrel and WTI moved above $94 after President Trump rejected Iran’s ceasefire conditions. Oil later backed off its intraday highs, but the message was clear: higher-for-longer energy prices aren’t doing the inflation outlook any favors.

That was reflected in bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5.27%, while the 30-year topped 5.5%, both hovering near multiyear highs. Markets are increasingly recognizing that stubborn inflation, fueled in part by elevated energy prices, could keep central banks pressing the rate-hike button longer than investors would like.

That makes this week’s economic calendar especially important, with PCE inflation on Wednesday, manufacturing data Thursday, and the September jobs report Friday. Plenty of opportunities for the bond market to misbehave.

Higher yields nudged the dollar up while gold got clobbered, falling to a nearly two-month low as leveraged traders reportedly liquidated positions to meet margin calls.

I view that as more of a temporary setback than a fundamental change in gold’s longer-term picture. Bitcoin, meanwhile, performed its usual dump-and-pump routine and finished only modestly below Friday’s close.

The more concerning signal came from market breadth. For the 10th straight session, NYSE new lows outnumbered new highs, while our TTIs continue drifting toward a potential Sell signal.

The major averages may still look reasonably composed, but underneath the surface, the market is clearly losing some footing.

Coincidence, or is the market quietly telling us something before the TTIs (section 3) do?

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