ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 14, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RECORD HIGHS MEET RISING YIELDS: A MARKET AT ODDS WITH ITSELF

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Over coffee this morning, I’d say the market’s most impressive feat was its ability to ignore almost everything thrown at it.

Retail sales came in softer than expected, Applied Materials stumbled more than 4%, oil continued climbing on Middle East tensions, and long-term Treasury yields pushed to levels not seen in decades.

Yet stocks largely held their ground, with the S&P 500 coming off a week filled with fresh record highs.

The real story remains the tug-of-war between stocks and bonds. Equity investors are celebrating easing inflation, a friendlier Fed outlook, and exceptionally strong earnings growth, while the bond market seems far less convinced that inflation and deficits are yesterday’s problems.

Gold is acting strong, the dollar weakened, and Bitcoin is still pacing back and forth inside its well-worn trading range.

I must admire the resilience of U.S. stocks, but when record-high equity prices are sharing the stage with multi-year high bond yields, I can’t help but wonder: which market is eventually going to blink first?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/13/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 13, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +11.18% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Record Highs, Cooler Inflation, And A Broader Rally

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks managed to grind higher today, with the S&P 500 notching another intraday record as investors welcomed a softer-than-expected inflation backdrop.

July producer prices came in cooler than forecast, reinforcing the idea that inflation pressures aren’t accelerating, even if the Fed isn’t quite ready to declare victory.

The market’s reaction was telling: bond yields initially moved lower, oil prices slid before recovering, and equities kept their footing.

By the close, the Nasdaq was again the leadership group, while the Dow trailed. Interestingly, the Mag 7 still couldn’t outshine the other 493 names in the S&P 500, a reminder that this rally has broadened beyond the usual AI superstars.

Elsewhere, the dollar finished mostly unchanged, gold slipped below $4,400, and Bitcoin found buyers around the $62,000 level after another shaky session.

As for the AI boom, today’s debate centered on whether investors are focusing on the right risks. History shows that market narratives often look much clearer in hindsight than they do in real time.

So, with inflation allegedly behaving, the broad market holding up, and leadership continuing to expand, is the next leg higher going to come from the forgotten stocks rather than the market’s biggest celebrities?

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CPI Cooperates, Gold Glitters, Markets Shrug

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got an early boost from a friendly inflation report, with July CPI coming in right on cue and reinforcing the view that the Fed can afford to stay on the sidelines for now.

AI favorites like CoreWeave and Super Micro helped lead the charge, but the broader market’s reaction was surprisingly muted.

What really stood out was the lack of enthusiasm. Cooling inflation and softer growth data should have been prime fuel for the bulls, yet the Magnificent Seven largely sat this one out while the other 493 S&P stocks did most of the heavy lifting.

Bond yields initially fell, then reversed course, and the dollar took investors on a roller-coaster ride before ending near where it started.

Gold, meanwhile, couldn’t care less about the dollar’s gymnastics, quietly climbing above $4,400, while Bitcoin spent the day practicing its zigzags.

With another inflation report arriving tomorrow (PPI), the market seems comfortable for now, but is that confidence justified, or are investors about to get a reminder that the Fed story isn’t finished yet?

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Wall Street Hits The Pause Button Ahead Of A Critical Inflation Week

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today’s market action was a reminder that headlines still matter. The S&P 500 lost ground as optimism about a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded, pushing oil prices higher and putting pressure on stocks, especially some of the market’s biggest technology names.

Communication services and technology led the retreat, with Alphabet, AppLovin, Apple, and even Nvidia struggling to find traction.

Interestingly, Nvidia couldn’t hold onto its gains despite announcing a massive AI infrastructure initiative, suggesting investors may be more focused on near-term risks than long-term opportunities.

Meanwhile, bonds seemed less concerned, with yields slipping, while the dollar was little changed. Gold and Bitcoin both eased back as traders took a cautious stance ahead of this week’s inflation reports.

At this point, the market feels like it’s caught between two worries: higher oil prices on one side and a slowing economy on the other.

With CPI tomorrow and PPI on Thursday, traders are about to find out whether inflation is cooling enough to comfort the Fed, or whether the latest energy spike throws another wrench into the outlook.

So, the question is: will the inflation data give stocks a reason to rally, or simply provide the market with a fresh set of worries?

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Silver Shines While Markets Search For Their Next Catalyst

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Markets spent most of the day waiting for clarity on the Iran situation and, unfortunately, clarity never showed up for work.

Growing doubts about a near-term U.S.-Iran breakthrough kept investors cautious, while higher oil prices took center stage. With WTI crude jumping about 5% to $82, bond yields moved higher and risk appetite cooled.

The major indexes drifted lower as the recent short-covering rally appeared to run out of fuel.

Meanwhile, precious metals continued to attract attention. Gold pushed back above $4,350 despite a stronger dollar, while silver stole the spotlight with a gain of more than 3%.

Bitcoin was the outlier, slipping modestly below $64,000.

In the end, it felt like one of those market days where everyone was waiting for the next headline, and nobody wanted to make the first big move.

Until a new catalyst emerges, we may be stuck in a holding pattern.

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