Geopolitics Trips Up Stocks As Gold, Silver, And Bitcoin Shine

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market spent the final trading day of August looking over its shoulder as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran rattled investors.

Stocks moved lower, oil jumped about 3%, and rising long-term Treasury yields added another headwind for equities. Sometimes the market worries about one thing at a time. Today it generously chose two.

That said, it’s worth keeping the bigger picture in mind. Despite August’s geopolitical flare-ups, inflation concerns, and bond market volatility, stocks still finished the month in positive territory, led by technology shares.

The Dow scored a fifth straight monthly gain, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their first monthly advances since May.

What really stood out this month wasn’t just stocks. Gold climbed roughly 10%, silver surged nearly 19%, and Bitcoin delivered its strongest monthly performance since late 2024 by gaining 25%.

With fiscal deficits remaining large, central banks continuing to accumulate gold, and the dollar trending weaker, the case for the “debasement trade” remains very much alive.

So, while today’s headlines focused on missiles and market nerves, is the bigger story still the steady migration toward hard assets and stores of value?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/28/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (229 vs. 223 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

A WINNING WEEK WITH A HAWKISH TWIST: MARKETS DIGEST WARSH’S MESSAGE

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started the day with a spring in their step but lost a little steam as traders digested Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.

The key takeaway? Inflation may be behaving better lately, but the Fed isn’t ready to declare victory just yet.

That recalibrated expectations in a hurry. Odds of a September rate hike jumped, short-term Treasury yields moved higher, and the dollar found its footing. Meanwhile, risk assets got a bit wobbly.

Gold took it on the chin, dropping more than 3%, while Bitcoin delivered its usual roller-coaster performance, briefly topping $81,000 before sliding back toward $77,000.

The broader lesson from today is pretty simple: when real yields and the dollar rise together, even favorite inflation hedges like gold and crypto can have a tough day at the office.

In my view, the long-term case for both is still intact, but today’s action was a reminder that markets rarely move in a straight line. After all, if investing were easy, everyone at the coffee shop would be a billionaire.

So, was today’s pullback just a reality check, or the market’s way of telling us higher rates may be sticking around longer than traders would like?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/27/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 27, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +9.48% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Markets Cheer Nvidia’s Earnings, Then Look To The Fed

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today’s rally had a very familiar driver: Nvidia. The chip giant delivered another earnings beat, and investors responded by sending the Nasdaq higher while the rest of the market mostly stood around checking its watch.

Nvidia surged 9% after topping expectations and projecting powerful revenue growth, with forecasts now pointing to roughly 70% growth by fiscal 2028.

The enthusiasm spilled across the tech landscape. Salesforce jumped 23%, Adobe and Autodesk added nearly 6%, and cybersecurity names joined the celebration, with Okta soaring 29% and CrowdStrike climbing 20% after both raised guidance on strong demand.

Outside of tech, it was a quieter story. Bond yields edged higher as investors weighed resilient economic data, firmer oil prices, and Treasury support.

The dollar finished roughly unchanged, gold posted modest gains, silver outperformed with a solid 1.9% advance, and Bitcoin worked its way back toward the $81,000 mark.

As traders turn their attention to the Jackson Hole symposium, one question comes to mind:

After Jensen Huang played market hero today, will Fed Chair Kevin Warsh be tomorrow’s plot twist?

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Inflation Stays Sticky, Markets Stay Sleepy: Can Nvidia Change The Mood?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market spent most of today standing around the coffee machine waiting for something interesting to happen.

July’s PCE inflation report came in a touch hotter than expected, reminding investors that inflation still hasn’t fully gotten the memo. Even so, the S&P 500 barely budged as traders chose to keep their powder dry.

What mattered more was the bond market. Treasury yields bounced higher after yesterday’s pullback, the dollar strengthened modestly, and that combination put some pressure on gold, which slipped back below $4,600.

Bitcoin also took a breather after yesterday’s run above $81,000, finishing little changed.

Now the spotlight shifts squarely to Nvidia. With the chip giant set to report after the bell and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to speak in Jackson Hole on Friday, traders have no shortage of potential catalysts.

The market has been marking time lately, but will Nvidia’s report card finally be enough to wake Wall Street from its late-summer nap?

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