The Fed Looms Large As Rising Yields Test Market Resilience

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The bears stayed in control today as investors headed into tomorrow’s Fed decision with one eye on interest rates and the other on the exits.

The big story wasn’t stocks, though, it was bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly pushed above 5%, a level we haven’t seen since 2007, reminding everyone that “higher for longer” is more than just a catchy phrase.

AI-related stocks helped cushion some of the damage after yesterday’s weakness, but rising yields and climbing oil prices continue to make life difficult for equities.

Brent crude pushed above $108, adding another layer of inflation concern just as the Fed prepares to make its next move.

Elsewhere, gold held its ground despite a stronger dollar, while Bitcoin gave back yesterday’s gains after the CLARITY Act stumbled by a single vote.

For now, earnings and economic resilience are still providing support, but if yields remain above 5%, history suggests stocks may face a stiffer headwind.

Will tomorrow’s Fed decision calm nerves or give the bears another reason to celebrate?

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Bitcoin Shines While Stocks Slide Under The Weight Of Rising Yields

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Friday’s relief rally didn’t make it through the weekend. Stocks opened on their back foot and spent most of the day underwater as investors wrestled with three things that mattered: AI uncertainty, surging oil prices, and another bout of bond market nerves.

The AI space took a hit after renewed calls for a slower pace of development raised fresh questions about the timing and appetite for future AI IPOs. At the same time, oil jumped above $103 a barrel after Saudi Arabia shut down a key pipeline, which is never the kind of headline inflation fighters like to read over their morning coffee.

Adding to the unease, bond yields spiked ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, briefly pushing the 10-year above 5% before calming down late in the session. Stocks recovered from their worst levels but still finished in the red, while a stronger dollar took some shine off gold.

One notable exception was bitcoin, which ignored both the stronger dollar and the gloomy mood on Wall Street, rallying on hopes tied to the CLARITY Act. Leave it to crypto to show up wearing a Hawaiian shirt at a black-tie event.

With the Fed decision due Wednesday, uncertainty remains the market’s favorite asset class. The question now is: will the Fed calm investors’ nerves, or give them one more thing to worry about?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 09/11/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (219 vs. 207 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For September 11, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RELIEF RALLY OR HEAD FAKE? BONDS STILL HOLD THE MARKET’S ATTENTION

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks managed a respectable rebound today after four straight losing sessions, helped by a pullback in oil prices. But if you were hoping for a dramatic change in the script, the bond market had other ideas.

The inflation report was largely in line with expectations, yet the bigger story was what happened afterward: investors quickly shifted from asking whether the Fed will hike rates to wondering how many more hikes it may ultimately need.

That concern showed up in higher bond yields, with the 2-year yield pushing to its highest level in over two years.

Meanwhile, oil took a breather after this week’s geopolitical-driven surge, gold couldn’t hang on to its early gains, and even Bitcoin was reminded that higher interest rates still matter, “digital gold” label or not.

So, despite today’s 1% relief rally, the real drivers remain the same: rising yields, elevated energy costs, resilient employment, and central banks that are still leaning hawkish.

In short, the market’s tug-of-war between bulls and bears is alive and well, and today’s bounce felt more like a timeout than a knockout punch.

The question now isn’t whether volatility sticks around, but which side finally gains enough conviction to win the next round: the bulls or the bears?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/10/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 10, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.58% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Black Gold Becomes The Market’s Wrecking Ball

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks took another hit today, and the culprit wasn’t hard to find. Crude oil surged back above $100 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran conflict dragged into its seventh month, reigniting inflation worries and putting pressure on just about every risk asset.

The market largely shrugged off a benign PPI report. While wholesale inflation came in as expected, traders were far more focused on the combination of soaring oil prices and a 10-year Treasury yield pushing toward 5%, a level we haven’t seen in quite some time.

That’s not exactly the recipe equity bulls were hoping for heading into tomorrow’s CPI report.

The bigger issue is that higher energy costs have a way of working their way through the economy, and the market is beginning to wonder whether the Fed may need to keep its foot closer to the brake than previously thought. Futures are now assigning meaningful odds to another rate hike next week.

In the meantime, there was nowhere to hide. Gold lost its luster, bitcoin fell back below $77,000, and stocks absorbed another broad-based selloff.

It was one of those days when “black gold” acted less like a commodity and more like a wrecking ball.

Tomorrow’s CPI report now takes center stage. Could a cooler-than-expected inflation reading give investors something to cheer about and help salvage the week, or has the market become too focused on oil and rising yields to care?

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