Edging Up On Low Volume

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Gains are better then losses; even if they’re small! That was the case today as the major indexes hugged the unchanged line but managed to close on the plus side. The Nasdaq eked out another record as the waiting game in the Greek saga continues. More clarification is needed to see if the latest proposal to the creditors can be nailed down.

To me, it looks like the markets have priced in some kind of acceptable resolution but, of course, you can never be sure of the actual outcome. Right now the game goes on, and it will be interesting to see what market reaction will be should Greece end up leaving the EU. In my view, the impact on the domestic market may not be that great but for sure the euro and the dollar, along with European stocks, will most likely be severly affected.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight were mixed as the indexes meandered without clear direction. Nevertheless, 5 of them gained with the leader being the Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) with +0.40%, while the downside was led by Consumer Staples (XLP) with -0.43%.

Read More

Greek Optimism Pushes Indexes Higher

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The bulls were in charge race right after the opening, and the major indexes shifted into rally mode closing on the plus side with the Nasdaq making a new record high. Despite the pullback during mid-day, we closed solidly above the unchanged line.

The driving forces, as has been the case lately, are the negotiations in Greece where new reform proposals were presented but caution remained as to the feasibility. That means it will take a few more agonizing days of deliberation along with the usual menu of accusations before any determination can be made if the primary issues have really been addressed and resolved. In other words, the Greek saga goes on…

Overall market sentiment was positive due to merger and acquisition activity in the energy field and a report that existing home sales not only grew more than expected but also surged to their highest level in over 5 years.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight picked up speed and closed up. The leader for the day was the Global 100 (IOO) with a gain of +1.22%, while the MC Value (IWS) was lagging but added 0.28%.

Read More

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 06/19/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 267 (last week 260) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 47 ETFs (last week 43) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 578 (last week 533) above the line and 242 below it out of the 820 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Will Earnings Expectations Improve After The Second Quarter?

Ulli Market Review Contact

ManBoth the S&P 500 and NASDAQ saw a surge toward the end of the week, and the rally is likely to sustain taking the indexes to the next level, said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network.

The economy is expected not only to expand, but also accelerate. Neither consumers nor investors have factored in that scenario till now, which could be one of the triggers to drive the markets higher, he added.

Asked how far the markets could rise, Brad said equities could grow another 5-10 percent this year. The earnings expectations are still depressed. If the economy continues to expand and accelerates, sentiment should improve within the next quarter and meet expectations in the back-end of the year with housing, financials, consumer discretionary and technology (particularly for business) sectors benefiting he observed.

Read More

New ETFs On The Block: Diamond Hill Valuation-Weighted 500 ETF (DHVW)

Ulli Equity ETFs Contact

CandleStickChartDiamond Hill Capital Management, an Ohio based independent investment manager with about $16 billion in assets under management that provides services to institutions and individuals through separate accounts, mutual funds and private investment funds, recently entered the exchange-traded funds arena.

Founded in 2000 by Ric Dillion during the peak of dot-com mania, it took 15 years for the investment manager, now a publicly-traded entity itself, to enter the world of ETFs.

The newly-launched Diamond Hill Valuation-Weighted 500 ETF (DHVW) is based on the firm’s belief that intrinsic value is unrelated to a stock’s current price and is more of a fundamentally-weighted play, thus differing from the more traditional market-cap weighted products.

The passively-managed fund tracks the Diamond Hill Valuation-Weighted 500 Index, an index consisting of about 500 of the largest US-listed equity securities weighted by intrinsic value capitalization. The index is rebalanced every quarter.

Read More

06-19-2015

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For June 19, 2015

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/06/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-06182015/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

QUADRUPLE-WITCHING-DAY PULLS INDEXES DOWN AFTER A SOLID WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The major indexes managed to end the day in the red yet gained nicely for the week. Contributing to today’s cautious stance was the continuing Greek saga as the debt talks ended in the usual deadlock. Adding to the volatility was the always disruptive quadruple-witching-day with options and futures for stocks and indexes expiring simultaneously.

As you can see from the above chart, we had a nice rebound in the S&P early in the week, which was really surprising as the main driving force, the Federal Reserve, did not make any earthshaking statements, so it pays, as always, not to pay attention to any public jawboning but to stay with the major trend.

Of course, all eyes are on Greece and another scheduled emergency crisis summit on Monday after numerous meetings failed to produce an agreement with its creditors. Of course, many analysts are baffled about the domestic equities’ strong performance in the face of the Greek crisis, but I think markets usually react more negatively to sudden unknown events rather than expected ones with simply an unknown timeline. I am sure we’ll find out next week whether this theory holds up this time.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight retreated after sporting nice gains earlier in the week. Leading the downside was the S&P 500 (SPY) with -1.04%, while Mid-Cap Value (IWS) dropped only by 0.37%.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) pulled back today, but the Domestic one gained on the week as you can see below:

Domestic TTI: +2.13% (last Friday +1.59%)—Buy signal effective 10/22/2014

International TTI: +3.18% (last Friday +3.33%)—Buy signal effective 2/13/2015

Have a nice weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

————————————————————-

READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

Reader Bob:

Q: Ulli: I am in the process of rebalancing/creating a portfolio & I am hesitant to allocate 40% or so (I am 64) to bond funds with the likelihood of an interest rate increase coming possibly sometime in 2015. I am thinking it may be prudent to put that 40% (or so) I would allocate to bonds in cash & wait & see what happens in the coming months.

My questions are (1) would you recommend buying a general bond fund (BND) now, or, if not, (2) would you recommend a bond fund focusing on high-yield corporate bonds (VWEHX or ETF equivalent) or intermediate bonds (VFICX or ETF equivalent), or keep the money in cash?

Alternatively, I have also been thinking about simply adopting the Vanguard 4-core portfolio (w/VTI [39%]; VXUS [24%]; BND [27%]; and BNDX [10%], but hesitate to do so because of the bond funds.

Guess I am confused regarding why not sit and wait in cash until the dust settles, while knowing trying to time the market is oftentimes a fool’s game.

I always greatly appreciate your thoughts and wisdom surrounding these complex issues. Hope to hear from you.

Best always to you & yours.

A: Bob: At this time, I personally would not touch any bonds at all. If you look around the world and see the erratic behavior of yields, crushing bond prices in the process, it’s best to stand aside from that asset class for the time being. Cash would be the better option, at least to me, rather than some of the funds you mentioned.

I would stick with whatever portion you have invested in equities subject to my recommended sell stop discipline. Let others take chances with the bond market. There will be a time again where they make more sense than right now. Again, my advice is always the same: If you are hesitant at all, don’t do it, just because some joker thinks the 60/40 allocation scheme is suitable for anyone at anytime.

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

———————————————————-

WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

———————————————————

Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/