ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 01/29/2016

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 381 ETFs, of which currently 38 (last week 21) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher. Volume figures can change in a hurry, so be sure to check first before investing.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of 98 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 8 ETFs (last week 7) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 15 (last week 14) above the line and 766 below it out of the 781 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Will The Federal Reserve Continue With Rate Increases?

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Man

The latest US-made durable goods reading was disappointing for the economy and showed businesses were pulling back even further than investors anticipated going into 2016, said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Fixed Income.

Beyond the headline number, the details were more disappointing as capital goods orders, excluding aircraft and defense, a proxy used by investors for business investment, were deeply negative and were down nearly 7 percent on annualized basis in the three months ending December.

The latest report is a validation that businesses continue to exacerbate the long standing trend of being uncertain about the economy and sitting on the sidelines amid a perfect storm. A strong US dollar and tepid demand – both globally and at home, along with a sizable inventory overhang are the perfect recipe for weak business investment.

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New ETFs On The Block: Elkhorn FTSE RAFI US Equity Income ETF (ELKU)

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Investing

Elkhorn Capital Group, the exchange-traded fund issuer founded by former PowerShares’ veteran Ben Fulton, launched its second fund recently with an eye on high-dividend paying US companies.

The newly launched Elkhorn FTSE RAFI US Equity Income ETF (ELKU) employs an investment strategy created by Research Affiliates, one of the pioneers of the so-called smart-beta investing.

ELKU tracks the FTSE RAFI US Equity Income Index, a gauge derived from the FTSE US All Cap Index and jointly developed by Research Affiliates and FTSE Russell. The index aims to offer risk-managed exposure to high dividend paying US companies after screening fundamentals.

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For January 29, 2016

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2016/01/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-01282016/

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Market Commentary

A BITTER SWEET END TO A GRIM JANUARY

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The Dow, posting its worst January since 2009, ended up nearly 400 points to cap a turbulent month on an upbeat note after a surprise interest rate cut by the Bank of Japan and despite a report showing weak fourth-quarter U.S. growth.

It appears that the Dow is still in correction mode, or down more than 10% from its peak. A weak January typically does not bode well for stocks for the remainder of the year. As the saying on Wall Street often says: “As January goes, so goes the market” for the rest of the year.

The big and unexpected headline Friday was a move by Japan’s central bank to push interest rates into negative territory (NIRP) in an effort to boost economic activity, combat dangerously low inflation and spur more bank lending. The Bank of Japan followed the policy path of the European Central Bank, in pushing the rate for deposits down to -0.1% for current financial firms that have cash deposited at the BoJ. A negative interest rate means depositors pay the bank to keep their money at the bank.

Of course, as we all know by now pushing rates to zero or even negative has done nothing to spur organic economic growth in the past, but it has done everything to support the financial markets. I suspect that today’s euphoric reaction will give way to reality in the near future and this day may very well be remembered as one to get out of the markets before the bear rears its ugly head again.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight participated in today’s buying panic and closed higher. The top dog of the day was the Financials (IYF) with +3.09%, while Consumer Staples (XLY) lagged with +1.09%.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/28/2016

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, January 28, 2016

TOC010716

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 11/13/2015

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in above chart) has recently crawled above its long term trend line (red) and finally generated a new “Buy” signal effective 11/3/15. The market subsequently dropped, and we exited again on 11/13/15. As of today, the TTI remains below its trend line by -3.11%, which means we are in cash on the sidelines.

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Oil Feeds The Markets

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended higher in choppy trading as oil prices rose for a third straight day and moved above $33 a barrel. The major indexes posted gains early as strong corporate earnings reports provided a boost which quickly evaporated before equities mounted another comeback.

In earnings news, Amazon (AMZN) missed Wall Street expectations, sending shares for a dive (-13%) in after-hours trading trading. The Seattle retailer reported $1 earnings per share on sales of $35.7 billion. The consensus earnings estimate has been $1.58 per share on revenue of $35.98 billion.

News in oil prices continued to grasp headline slots today, as the price of oil gained a whopping 4.33%. The bullish buy-in for oil futures came when swirling speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could slash production. Still, even if OPEC reduces production, macroeconomic concerns, such as the sluggish economy in China and the deteriorating situation in Brazil, are likely to continue to keep prices at low levels compared to recent yearly averages.

8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to close on the plus side with Consumer Staples (XLY) gaining +1.28%. The loser of the day was Healthcare (XLV), which got clobbered at the tune of -2.33%.

Let’s see if there is more fallout from the Amazon debacle tomorrow.

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