ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, January 28, 2016
If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.
1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 11/13/2015
Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in above chart) has recently crawled above its long term trend line (red) and finally generated a new “Buy” signal effective 11/3/15. The market subsequently dropped, and we exited again on 11/13/15. As of today, the TTI remains below its trend line by -3.11%, which means we are in cash on the sidelines.
The link below shows the top 100 domestic funds (out of 674) and the sorting order is by M-Index ranking. Prices in all linked tables are updated through 01/28/2016, unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication is indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%. Please note that distributions are not included in the current momentum numbers.
Whenever the TTI is above the trend line, and therefore in ‘Buy’ mode, you can either use the tables in the links below to make your selections or choose from the 10 ETFs in the Spotlight, which are featured daily as part of the market commentary:
2. DOMESTIC FUNDS BY FAMILY: American Century, Fidelity, Vanguard, ProFunds, Rydex, T. Rowe Price — SELL
3. EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS MASTER LIST
I have added this ETF Master list so that you can quickly compare various ETFs without having to reference other tables. The ETFs listed in the table (476) consist of the following orientations: Domestic, International, Country, Sector and Specialty. Momentum figures for all ETFs are not adjusted for dividends.
4. DOMESTIC EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (ETFs): SELL
ETFs are a preferable alternative to No Load Mutual Funds whenever you can make that choice. Lower annual fees, no restrictive trading and redemption charges, along with the ability to enter and exit during market hours, are some of the benefits.
All the same Buy and Sell rules apply for domestic ETFs as they do for domestic equity mutual funds in section 1.
5. INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/21/2015
This International Trend Tracking Index (green) is now positioned at -10.69% below its long-term trend line (red) after having generated a “Sell” signal as of 8/21/15. We have no holdings in this arena.
The listings in the link below represent some of my choices of the international funds I track to be used during a Buy cycle. They are sorted by M-Index ranking:
Be advised that many international funds may not be available to you since they carry a load. However, while I am able to purchase these for my managed account clients as ‘load waived’ funds, this doesn’t help you much, if you do your own investing. This is why I have included some appropriate ETFs in the above list.
6. COUNTRY ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY
While I believe that the United States is the greatest country in the world to live in, it is not necessarily always the best, or only one, to invest in.
This addition to my newsletter will allow us to also invest selectively in countries with better performing stock markets. With the proliferation of ETFs over the past years, we are now able to invest in a variety of countries via these low cost instruments.
The chart shows the China Index as an example:
The link contains a list of various countries/regions, which I am tracking weekly. Please note that data in this table does not include adjustments due to distributions.
As you witnessed during the last couple of years, country funds can be volatile and the use of a trailing stop loss (I use 10%) is imperative to protect your portfolio from severe downside moves.
7. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (ETFs): SELECTIVE BUY
To diversify our portfolios, we always need to look for different opportunities to invest our money. The table of sector fund listings (ETFs) in the following link covers a broad spectrum of possibilities. The sorting order is by M-Index:
Here too, I recommend the use of a 10% trailing stop loss to minimize the risk.
8. SECTOR FUND INVESTING (Mutual Funds): SELECTIVE BUY
If you prefer using Fidelity’s wide variety of excellent sector funds, you will like this new addition. Here as well, sectors can be volatile, and I advise the use of a sell stop just as we do with ETFs.
The sorting order is by M-Index:
9. BOND & DIVIDEND ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY
If you prefer using ETFs for the generation of income, here’s a list of bond and dividend paying ETFs. It’s important to first look at how these instruments have held up in terms of momentum figures. Then you should visit your favorite financial web site to examine yield and other details.
Please note that data in this table does not include adjustments due to distributions.
10. BEAR MARKET FUNDS: SELECTIVE BUY
The above indicator represents our Short Fund Composite (SFC) to be used as a trend indicator for Bear Market Funds.
The SFC has edged above its long-term trend line by +5.66% and is now in “Buy” mode.
Below are the most commonly available bear market funds/ETFs and their momentum figures:
Please note that some of the above funds try to outperform the index they are tied to by the percentage stated. While this can enhance your returns it can certainly accelerate your losses as well. No matter which way you choose, be sure to work with a trailing sell stop and be aware that volatility will be your constant companion.
11. 401(k) FUNDS (domestic): SELL
The list (featured in the link below) displays commonly held 401(k) domestic equity mutual funds showing their latest momentum figures to go along with the Buy and Sell signals of the TTI in section 1. The same stop loss rules apply here as well.
Since fund choices are limited in any 401k plan, be sure to roll your assets into an IRA if you leave your job. Let me know if you need help with that.
In the meantime, however, you can benefit greatly by at least not buying the worst fund at the wrong time. If you follow our plan, you will never again buy one of those highly volatile sector funds, when you really should be out of the market altogether.
The sorting order is now also by M-Index.
12. New Subscriber Information
To get you a head start on more successful investing, please click on:
In case you missed it, you can download my latest e-book “How to beat the S&P 500…with the S&P 500,” here.
I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.Contact Ulli