[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the markets

The major indexes meandered around their respective unchanged lines for most of the morning, when news that the State Department had lifted its global travel advisory from 4 months ago hit the wires. That was like poring gasoline on a fire, and the indexes rocketed higher for the remainder of the session and never looked back.

The gains were solid across the board with the Nasdaq faring the best out of the 3 indexes, but the tech sector was not able to catch gold’s performance with the yellow metal closing +1.25% at $2,075, now having been up 14 out of the past 15 days.

The early update on initial/continuing jobless claims offered a “positive” surprise, as they fell slightly after having risen for two weeks in a row. I don’t see the optimism, because still 1.186 million new Americans signed up for jobless claims for the first time. Ouch!

That new layoffs are well under way, is further confirmed by this study summarizing it like this:

Of workers who were placed back on payrolls after being initially laid off/furloughed as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis, 31% report that they have been laid off a second time, and another 26% of those placed back on payrolls report being told by their employer that they may be laid off again.

Again, none of the above matters to the markets, until one day when it does. In the meantime, all eyes are on tomorrow’s jobs report, and it will be interesting to see how it will be spun in a positive light to keep the market levitation intact.

ZH summed up the insanity in the current market environment like this:

As Bloomberg notes, the pause in the leadership of the mega-cap technology stocks is over, as evidenced by their dominance today. Nearly all of the S&P 500’s 18-point gain can be explained by five stocks: Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. That’s how the index can rise even though 54% of its stocks are down at the moment. Among the group on pace for all-time closing highs: Apple, Amazon and Facebook.

However even AAPL’s stunning move pales in comparison to the 150% surge in silver from its March lows.

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the markets

The Dow raced ahead and ended just short of a 400-point gain, but gold again outperformed with another solid +1.53% showing. The S&P closed within 1.7% of its all-time high.

The mood was upbeat, not because of facts, but merely hope of further stimulus from the government to assist the out-of-work Americans. However, concerns surfaced that Friday’s widely anticipated payroll report may show that the rise in Covid-19 infections could have stalled the recent revival of business activity.

Added MarketWatch:

Payroll provider Automatic Data Processing Inc. ADP, also said only 167,000 private-sector jobs were created in July, far short of the 1.88 million forecast by economists polled by Econoday. However, a reading of services from the Institute for Supply Management service sector index jumped to a reading of 58.1 in July, beating expectations and signaling stronger economic growth.

While tech trailed the other 2 indexes today, the Nasdaq nevertheless has now closed higher in six straight sessions and has been outperforming the Dow and S&P 500 YTD, but it is still lagging gold, which again roared into record territory.

This word of caution came from ZH:

A body in motion will remain in motion.

And while tech bulls will pounds the table and vow that the current tech bubble is far less dangerous than the dot com bubble of 2000, the reality is that that fwd multiples are now exponential and it is only a matter of time before this particular law of Newton encounters a sufficient painful “external force” that will burst the current tech bubble too.

In the meantime, as you would expect from gold’s surge, the negatively affected asset class is the US Dollar, which, thanks to the reckless money printers at the Fed, continues its path of least resistance—down.

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the markets

This morning, we saw another weak opening with the major indexes zigzagging and being pulled into the red before another magic last hour ramp pushed equities to a green close.  

Mid-day, stocks obliterated some of their gains, as House Speaker Pelosi announced that she “doesn’t think there will be a deal this week,” referring to the endless back and forth about the size of the planned stimulus package.

She raised the ante to $3.4 trillion from $3 trillion, which is a far cry away from the Republican’s proposal of $1 trillion. This has the feeling as if someone wants to crash the markets.

While that did not happen today, we saw a pullback in stocks, Treasury yields tumbling to a record closing low, while gold rocketed to new record highs, with the spot price braking the $2,000 level by a wide margin.

News headlines were confusing, as ZH pointed out:

1142ET Pelosi: “doesn’t think there will be a deal this week.”

1415ET *SEN. PERDUE SAYS SENATE STIMULUS TALKS MAY TAKE ANOTHER 2 WEEKS

1425ET *MCCONNEL: WILL NOT FIND TOTAL GOP CONSENSUS ON VIRUS RELIEF

1450ET *SCHUMER SAYS NOT GOING TO STRIKE A DEAL JUST FOR THE SAKE OF IT

1455ET *SCHUMER SAYS HE IS HOPEFUL, TALKS MOVING FORWARD BIT BY BIT

The Nasdaq was trailing the indexes today, which is to be expected after the sizzling run up, we have seen. The reason is in part that its big component, namely the FANG stocks, have been stuck in a trading range over the past three days, as Bloomberg demonstrates here.

Until a breakout occurs, big tech maybe treading water for a while.

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the markets

Friday’s last hour rebound served as a foundation for further advances, as the major indexes did not skip a beat, opened to the upside, never looked back, and ended up scoring another green close, which greatly benefitted our current positions. Helping matters was the impact of another strong short squeeze.

As we’ve seen in the past, the tech sector (Nasdaq) ruled by showing the strongest gains and surging to another high, while the S&P 500 placed 3^rd among the major indexes.

After a solidly higher opening, GLD bounced around aimlessly, slipped into the red but managed a nice bounce back into the close. It seems that the $2k glass ceiling appears to present formidable overhead resistance, but it will be broken eventually. Today, gold’s weakness was caused by a rallying dollar.

In economic news we learned that a manufacturing gauge rose while new orders jumped better than had been expected, which helped the bullish cause but still raised questions about its sustainability. Similar positive numbers in Europe and China supported their markets as well.

In terms of a new stimulus package, MarketWatch reported:

Market participants were also focused on the fact that there are no signs of a stimulus package between Democrats and Republicans after negotiations over the weekend failed to yield a replacement for a $600-a-week boost to unemployment benefits that expired Friday.

At issue for Democrats and Republicans is the amount of unemployment assistance for Americans. The White House has come out in favor of reducing the federal assistance to $200 a week, Democrats have called for keeping it at $600 a week. However, the parties appear to both support a fresh round of stimulus checks of $1,200 for workers.

Right now, upward momentum continues, and we will stay on board subject our exit strategy.