[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks got a lift today as investors tiptoed back into big tech ahead of the midterm elections.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 pushed higher, with the chipmakers leading the charge. AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, Micron, and Intel all posted solid gains, suggesting the AI trade still has plenty of believers.
Apple was the notable exception, slipping after a softer margin outlook and disappointing iPad sales. Even market favorites have an occasional bad hair day.
Elsewhere, oil eased on hopes of progress in U.S.-Iran talks, gold pulled back as the dollar strengthened, and Bitcoin finally caught its breath as Binance-related outflow concerns appeared to settle down.
The bigger story, though, remains the election.
Markets generally dislike uncertainty more than bad news, and history suggests that once the votes are counted, investors often breathe a sigh of relief.
Since 1974, the S&P 500 has delivered a median gain of 6% in the three months following midterm elections. The question now is whether this time will rhyme with history, or if the market has a different script in mind.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq kept their bullish stride today, brushing off the usual cloud of midterm-election uncertainty.
The catch? Most of the heavy lifting came from tech, which seemed determined to keep the rally alive all by itself.
Elsewhere, the story was less exciting. Metals never really joined the party, and our TTIs slipped modestly, apparently deciding that a little profit-taking was more appealing than dancing with the tech crowd.
This is how we closed 11/03/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.81% above its M/A (prior close +6.16%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +3.14% above its M/A (prior close +3.55%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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