[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the markets

The mood today was up, up, and away with hardly any intra-day corrections. An early jump set the major indexes on track for smooth sailing throughout the session with all of them ending in record territory.

Traders decided that after the roller coaster ride of the past few days, and the political tug-of-war nearing an end, expectations of a massive stimulus program would be a virtual certainty with most of that money finding its way into the markets.

After some soggy recent performance, the Nasdaq took center stage with not only a +2.56% gain but also closing above 13,000 for the first time. Despite that breathtaking advance, MidCaps led the way with +2.81% barely ahead of SmallCaps with +2.61%.

It seems like the worse things get, the more the stock market likes it, which was the title of an article by author Michal Synder, who summed things up like this:

Of course, the bigger news on Wednesday was the utter chaos that we witnessed at the U.S. Capitol in Washington.  Doors and windows were smashed, members of Congress had to be evacuated, and protesters freely roamed through the halls and offices.  You would think that something like that would definitely send stock prices plunging, but instead the Dow ended the day up 437 points.

Even though we have just come through the worst year in recent memory, and even though our system of government is in disarray, stock prices hit an all-time record high on Wednesday.

10-year bond yields continued higher and are closing in on their highest spike since March last year, nearing 1.09% intraday, as ZH pointed out. The US Dollar found some life and surged thereby taking any starch out of Gold’s attempt to build on yesterday’s rebound.

In the end, further advances will be supported by a continued expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, as Bloomberg points out in this chart. However, the fly in the ointment could be surging bond yields which, if left unchecked, will be the great equalizer.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the markets

Following the Georgia run-off elections, which are favoring the Democrats, the markets were in a split mode with bond yields and SmallCaps surging, even though the US Dollar and the tech sector were stumbling. Gold did its best imitation of a swan dive and gave up its YTD gains.

It’s widely assumed that, should the Dems take the Senate, tougher tech regulations will be on deck, hurting that sector, with more stimulus in the pipeline affecting the dollar adversely.

Despite the late sell-off, in part caused by protesters storming the Capitol, the Dow held up the best and closed in record territory. Still, the Dow’s +1.44% gain was bested again by SmallCaps, which added +2.88%.

CNBC saw it this way:

Tech stocks — the best-performing market group over the past year — lagged on Wednesday amid concerns over higher tax rates. The prospects of new stimulus also made tech stocks less attractive relative to beaten-down cyclical names.  

It’s amazing that the equities overall performed as well as they did with bond yield spiking and the 10-year shooting through the 1% glass ceiling without a problem. For sure, if that trend continues for any length of time, it will affect stocks negatively.

This makes me wonder, if the “Smart Money” indeed is looking a little bit further ahead, which may be why Bloomberg’s chart below has not changed at all:

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the markets

Even though the futures markets were mired in uncertainty and failed to rebound from Monday’s collapse, it was a different story once the cash markets opened.

The major indexes found some footing, dipped mid-day, but then staged a rebound that ended up in a green close.

As posted yesterday, the looming Georgia runoffs were on everyone’s mind, but for the time being, traders and algos alike decided to gamble on a strong economic recovery and in the process recovered some of yesterday’s losses.

Added CNBC:

Investors also looked ahead to two key elections in Georgia, which will determine whether Republicans can hold on to control in the Senate. Many fear that increased tax rates and more progressive policies could weigh on the market if Democrats gain control of the Senate.

However, such an outcome could create an opportunity for a bigger and faster spending package.

Even though the Nasdaq reigned supreme with a gain of +0.95%, SmallCaps continued with their unrelenting performance by adding +1.25%. On the other hand, Crude Oil stole the spotlight with a jaw dropping advance of +5.04%, its first move above $50 since February.

Bond yields rose but remain stuck in a tight trading range, although the US Dollar pumped and dumped, thereby helping Gold to score its second win in a row and also climbing above the $1,950 level.

For sure, we will some effect on the markets tomorrow whether the Georgia vote counting ends tonight or not.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the markets

After touching new all-time highs (Dow and S&P) shortly after the opening, the bullish euphoria vanished in a hurry and made room for the bears to do some chest pounding for a change with the Dow down over 700 points at its worst level.

However, given the strong advances last month, this sell-off ended up being relatively modest, especially if you held Gold in your portfolio. The precious metal finally found some legs and surged an impressive +2.78% to recoup its $1,900 level—and that in the face of the US Dollar rebounding.

Leave it up to billionaire investor Carl Icahn, who uttered the words that not many on Wall Street wanted to hear:

“In my day, I’ve seen a lot of wild rallies with a lot of mispriced stocks, but there is one thing they all have in common. Eventually they hit a wall and go into a major painful correction.”

He is correct, but as always, the timing of such an event remains the big unknown. Leaving the traders with a sense of unease are tomorrow’s Senate runoff elections in Georgia, which could give the Democrats the majority in the chamber (Blue Wave).

Opined John Stoltzfus from Oppenheimer:

“It is thought by not just a few folks on Main Street as well as on Wall Street that if tomorrow’s run-off results in a sweep for the Democrats — providing them with control of the Senate as well as the House — that it would bode ill for business with the likelihood that corporate tax rates could rise substantially.”

And if that’s not enough excitement for you, it will be followed by more drama on Wednesday when the electoral votes are being counted in Washington. With so much uncertainty on deck, it’s no surprise that equities suffered their worst start to a year since the Dot-Com crash.

All bets on market direction are off this week, as short-term volatility based on the latest headlines will rule the markets, and we will have to wait and see if the bullish phase continues or if the bears take over.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the markets

Again, the futures pointed to a positive beginning in the cash markets, and that’s exactly how it opened. While the major indexes spiked early on, they faded throughout the session but managed to close in the green, though by a only small margin.

After the drubbing of the past couple of days, SmallCaps found renewed momentum and surged +1.15% outperforming the major indexes. Vaccine optimism and additional stimulus was the driving force to higher prices.

The stimulus saga continues full force with CNBC calling it this way:

The Senate currently has no plans to vote on a bill that would increase checks to $2,000 from $600. That measure was passed by the House late Monday. However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell introduced another bill that ties the increased payments to demands from President Donald Trump on tech and the election.

The US Dollar took another hit and continued its race to the bottom, wherever that might be, in the process giving an assist to gold, which rallied +0.78% but fell short of reaching its $1,900 level.

If you are a follower of the financial news, you undoubtedly will have come across the jargon the professionals use, but you may not have been clear on its true meaning. One investment chief allowed the Institutional Investor to publish it under the heading:

“Asset Managers BS—Decoded,” presented tongue in cheek.

• Now is a good entry point = Sorry, we are in a drawdown
• We have a high Sharpe ratio = We don’t make much money
• We have never lost money = We have never made money
• We have a great back test = We are going to lose money after we take your money
• We have a proprietary sourcing approach = We invest in whatever our hedge fund friends do
• We are not in crowded positions = We missed all the best-performing stocks
• We are not correlated = We are underperforming while the market keeps going up
• We invest in unique uncorrelated assets = We have an illiquid portfolio which can’t be valued and will suspend soon
• We are soft closing the fund = We want to raise as much money as we can right now
• We are hard closing the fund = We are definitely open for you
• We are not responsible for the bad track record at our prior firm = We lost money but are blaming all our ex-colleagues
• We have a bottom-up approach = We have no idea what markets are going to do
• We have a top-down process = We think we know what markets will do but really who does?
• The markets had a temporary mark-to-market loss = Our fundamental analysis was wrong, and we don’t know why we lost money
• We don’t believe in stop-loss limits = We have no risk management

Tomorrow’s last session of 2020 will be an abbreviated one, and I will not write a commentary. Just like you, I will enjoy some time off and will return on Monday refreshed and eager to deal with next year’s issues.

Happy New Year!

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the markets

Despite the futures spiking into record territory, and the cash markets following suit at the opening, the major indexes ended up sliding lower, chopped around their respective trendlines, but fell short in their attempt to rebound into the green.

Taking the starch out of the early dash was the continued battle over the stimulus package with some Representatives favoring the increased direct payment to Americans of $2,000 from the previous $600, while others opposed it. The tug-of-war will go on until the deciding votes are cast.

The clubbing of Small- and MidCaps continued, while the Dow and S&P 500 held up the best. The most shorted stocks, which had been relentlessly squeezed higher for most of the year, finally got hammered over the past few sessions.

Gold in the end managed a green close but fell short of reaching its $1,900 marker. The bullish equity theme remains in full force, despite current weakness, as the driver of this magic rally has not shown any signs of slowing down—yet:

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