- Moving the market
Stocks pushed higher early after President Trump announced an extension of the U.S. ceasefire with Iran, and a solid batch of earnings reports helped keep sentiment upbeat.
The move gave markets a sense of breathing room, even if the situation remains far from resolved.
Shortly after Tuesday’s close, Trump said he would extend the ceasefire, citing Iran’s “seriously fractured” government as a reason to allow more time for negotiations.
At the same time, he emphasized that the U.S. military would maintain its blockade and remain fully prepared should talks fail. In other words, diplomacy stays on the table—but the pressure hasn’t gone anywhere.
That said, the timeline still looks shaky. Reports suggest Vice President JD Vance paused plans to join peace talks after Tehran failed to show meaningful commitment. Iranian state media added to the uncertainty, quoting negotiators who dismissed talks with the U.S. as a “waste of time.”
So yes, the jawboning continues, and likely will for a while. Still, markets seem to be focusing on the broader takeaway: despite the noise, the path appears more de‑escalatory than not.
Beyond geopolitics, earnings season is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Boeing shares climbed more than 4% after reporting a smaller‑than‑expected first‑quarter loss, while GE Vernova jumped 10% on stronger‑than‑expected revenue.
So far, more than 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten expectations—a strong start by any measure.
By the close, tech was once again in the driver’s seat, pushing both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs. Rising oil prices were largely shrugged off, as confidence in earnings outweighed concerns about narrow market breadth.
The Magnificent Seven handily outperformed the rest of the index, moving back into the green for the week.
Bond yields were mixed, the dollar strengthened, gold posted modest gains, and Bitcoin continued to march higher, breaking above $79,000 for the first time since February 2.
As ZeroHedge put it, if markets believe a resolution is likely in the coming months, even meaningful near‑term economic damage may not derail equities or other long‑duration assets.
The real question is: how long can that conviction hold if progress on the diplomatic front continues to stall?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Markets took President Trump’s ceasefire extension as a green light, and the major indexes surged right out of the gate.
The rally was very much a tech‑led affair, which left small caps and the broader market trailing behind. Metals joined the upbeat tone, catching a bid alongside equities.
Our TTIs mostly stayed on the sidelines. The international TTI dipped slightly, while the domestic TTI essentially went nowhere, reflecting a market that moved fast but didn’t do much to change the bigger trend.
This is how we closed 04/22/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.97% above its M/A (prior close +6.01%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.54% above its M/A (prior close +7.75%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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