One Man’s Opinion: Will Volatility Remain Elevated In The Near Future?

Ulli Market Review Contact

ManWhile many investors may have lost their annual gains in equities due to the recent slide, there are others who have built high cash positions, said Kristina Hooper of Alliance Global Investors.

Allianz expects heightened volatility with a downward bias in the coming weeks and investors with a long enough time horizon should hang around because markets are likely to see a turnaround by the end of the year, she noted.

Economist John Maynard Keynes had famously said “in the long-term we are all dead.” Asked if she regrets the advice that people should remain invested when the markets continue to fall, Christina answered in negative. Investors need not worry too much about short-term movements. Investors lose the most money when they are not able to stay invested because they often don’t get back in when the markets begin to recover, she explained.

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New ETFs On The Block: Deutsche X-Trackers Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 Equity ETF (JPN)

Ulli Country ETFs Contact

Worldwide ideasInvestment managers have been largely enthusiastic about Japan and Europe this year with the weakening of their respective currencies and the slide in oil prices. To take advantage of the success of the so called “Abenomics,” Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, the fund manager known for its innovative international exchange-traded funds, launched a new Japan-focused fund to help investors take exposure in Asia’s second largest economy in a unique way.

The newly launched Deutsche X-trackers Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 Equity ETF (JPN) follows Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s vision of smart beta: an index that follows “high appeal” Japanese companies.

JPN is the first US ETF to follow the JPX-Nikkei Index 400–a benchmark launched in January 2014 in an attempt to coax Japanese companies into becoming more efficient and transparent.

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For August 7, 2015

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-08062015/

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Market Commentary

MAJOR INDEXES SLIP DURING VOLATILE WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

During this volatile week, the Dow managed to head for its longest slide in some 4 years with bio-techs, commodities and oil leading the trend towards bear market territory.

The S&P 500 gave back 1.23% this week and violated its widely followed 200-day moving average to the downside a couple of times but in the end, the index managed to close back above it by +0.51%.

The jobs report came in largely as expected and at a pace the Fed wants to see in order to justify its possible interest rate hike still anticipated for September. The only fly in the ointment was the unfortunate fact that there has only been minimal wage growth, which does not bode well for an economy that is depended on its citizens to spend with utter abandon.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight were mixed again with 2 of them inching up on the day and 8 of them losing. Managing a scant gain were Select Dividends (DVY) and the Financials (IYF) with +0.03% each. On the downside, the worst performer was Consumer Staples with -0.56%.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/06/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, August 6, 2015

TOC021915

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +0.73% keeping us in the market with our established positions.

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Dow Down For Sixth Straight Day

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thu pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended lower as the Dow shed 120 points, marking its sixth consecutive day of losses. The down-slide has come while Wall Street has been bracing for Friday’s employment report and the potential hints the jobs data might provide about the timing of an interest rate hike by the Fed.

Domestically, in the world of housing and real estate, mortgage rates are down from 3.98% to 3.91% while applications for jobless aid rose 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 270,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped 6,500 to 268,250. That average has fallen nearly 10% over the past year, close to levels last seen in 2000. Applications are a proxy for layoffs.

Moving to the world of social media, Twitter (TWTR) shares fell to a new all-time low on as Wall Street’s expectations for the struggling company continued to deflate. Twitter is plunging after executives predicted it would take “considerable” time for Twitter to figure out how to reignite stagnant user growth. The stock is now trading at around $27.50 a share, which is slightly above its IPO price of $26 a share. Stagnant growth in new subscribers has been the main focus of restructuring conversations over the past couple of months.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed lower led by our leader YTD, Healthcare (XLV), with a -2.18% loss. Holding up very well was the loser YTD, the Select Dividend ETF (DVY), which managed to remain unchanged.

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Disney Pulls Down The Dow

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

While most indexes managed to close above the unchanged line, the Dow ended up slipping thanks to a weak performance in energy and Disney.

The early rally was based on hope that odds of an interest rate increase by the Fed next month subsided a bit due to a soft reading on ADP’s payroll report of 185,000 newly created jobs in July vs. 229,000 in June.

Of course, as we’ve seen in the past, ADP being a front runner to Friday’s jobs report by the Labor Department does not mean there are any conclusions to be had in what Friday’s numbers will look like. In the past, we’ve seen higher and lower figures, so this is not indicative of what we can expect. Nevertheless, a weak report could mean that the Fed might not hike next month, or so the theory goes.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed higher led by Healthcare (XLV) with +0.84%, as Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) bucked the trend and closed lower by -1.08%.

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