Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/22/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, October 22, 2015

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If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/24/2015

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned below its long term trend line (red) by -0.15% after having generated a “Sell” signal as of 8/24/2015, which applies to all “broadly diversified domestic equity ETFs/Mutual Funds.”

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Big Gains For Wall Street On Earnings And ECB Stimulus Talk

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks skyrocketed Thursday as investors were quite encouraged by a market moving earnings report posted by McDonald’s (MCD) and signs from Europe that more stimulus might be on the way for the European Economy. In the end, it was really ECBs Mario Draghi’s jawboning about “re-examining” its stimulus program, which lit some fire under the indexes.

McDonald’s topped earnings forecasts by 13 cents. The burger and fries giant also beat revenue forecasts, sparking a big rally in McDonald’s shares.

In earnings news, we heard from Google’s parent company Alphabet (GOOG) today. Wall Street cheered as the company delivered an earnings beat, as well as announcing that its board of directors had authorized the company to spend $5.1 billion buying back shares. Alphabet posted $7.35 a share excluding certain expenses. Analysts expected $7.20 a share, up 13% from $6.35 a share a year ago.

Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) also impressed today with earnings reports that topped estimates. Microsoft announced it was gaining traction with its new Windows 10 operating system, which is now running on 110 million devices and the company also boasted about progress in the cloud space.

An earnings miss from financial services firm American Express (AXP), whose shares were down more than 5%, and heavy equipment maker Caterpillar (CAT) put a drag on the indexes.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight ended higher with the loser of day being Healthcare (XLV) with a loss of -0.59%. Taking top honors on the upside was the Low Volatility S&P (SPLV) with +2.01%. Be sure to review section 3 below as our Domestic TTI is nearing a new “Buy” signal.

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Indexes Slide Further Amidst Big Name Earnings Reports

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

After suffering mild losses the day before, U.S. stocks fell deeper in the red today as traders encountered another big day of earnings reports, with blue chip names Coca-Cola, Boeing, American Express and General Motors releasing third-quarter results.

In earnings news, Coca-Cola (KO) profit fell in the third quarter but earnings still slightly beat estimates. Shares dropped slightly. Shares of Boeing (BA) jumped 1.8% after reporting earnings that beat Wall Street expectations and raised its profit outlook for the year. Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) hurtled downward, losing around 19.2%, on an investment group’s report claiming that the company is inflating drug sales through bogus transactions. Both Chipotle (CMG) and Yahoo (YHOO) shares tumbled today after both showed earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations.

In the IPO world, luxury automaker Ferrari (RACE) went public today. In a sign of optimism, shares of its initial public offering were priced at $52 a share, which is the top of the $48 to $52 range analysts were predicting. Shares opened trading today at $60 a share this morning and closed at $55 a share.

Only 1 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to squeeze out a gain, namely Consumer Staples (XLP) with a scant +0.02%. Leading the losers was the Mid-Cap Value ETF (IWS), which gave back -1.00%.

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Mixed Earnings Reports Pull Stocks Lower

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

A hazy batch of earnings reports were the culprit for the small losses on Wall Street today.

The Dow ended the day down a scant 14 points after bouncing in and out of negative territory. IBM (IBM), which is the Dow’s largest component, dragged the index down after weak hardware sales and the impact of the strong dollar hurt the company’s Q3 earnings.

The Dow would have slipped further if not for higher-than-expected earnings reports from three other Dow components – Verizon (VZ), United Technologies (UTX) and The Travelers Company (TRV).

Another stock on the move today was Yum Brands (YUM), which announced it is splitting the company in two, with one company focusing solely on its China business. Yum shares were up 3.8% to $74.48.

Other companies reporting later this week include Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT).

5 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained while 5 of them lost. Sporting the best gain were the Financials (IYF) with +0.51% while the loser of the day was Healthcare (XLV) with -1.53%.

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Equities Gain Slightly In Anticipation Of Earnings Week

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The Dow and S&P 500 just barely managed gains, as investors await a big week of earnings reports and reacted to data out of China showing GDP growth below 7%.

The good news…after suffering its first 10% correction this summer, the Dow has rebounded in recent weeks. The blue-chip index has finished up three straight weeks, its longest winning streak since late last year and the rally has helped the Dow trim its decline to being down just 3.4% for the year. Let’s see if this run can continue.

At least partly impacting stocks today was news out of China, where third-quarter GDP came in at 6.9%. While growth last quarter was better than the 6.8% growth rate analysts had forecast, it was still below the second-quarter’s 7% growth and raised questions as to whether China will be able to reach its full-year GDP target of +7%.

Traders are gearing up for a big week of earnings reports. More than 20% of S&P 500 companies and a dozen Dow stocks are set to report this week. So far this earnings season, 71% of the 58 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results have topped sharply reduced forecasts.

6 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to crawl above the unchanged line with Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) taking the lead with a gain of +0.47%. The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) trailed with -0.14%.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/16/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 381 ETFs, of which currently 69 (last week 41) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 12 ETFs (last week 7) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 49 (last week 15) above the line and 751 below it out of the 800 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.