Dow Snaps 5-Day Win Streak

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Yesterday, I pointed out that investors would be closely watching a slew of economic data this week, one piece of which was China’s trade numbers. Well, the numbers came in today and were disappointing to say the least.

Imports fell 13% and exports dropped a whopping 25%. That is a big number and Wall Street reacted accordingly and all 3 major indexes closed in negative territory. The weak data point reminded investors that the slowdown in the world’s second biggest economy remains an issue for global growth.

In the oil and gas world, we Chevron Corp (CVXN) said today that the company will cut its budget by at least 17% for the next two years. The reason being is to save money given that crude prices sit near 10-year lows.

While oil made a slight comeback over the past 2-3 weeks, it seems that it was just a fluke, as reality took over and the black gold moved back to about $36 a barrel today.

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Monday Slowly Came And Went; Lots Data Due This Week

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks are showing signs of fatigue to kick off the new week, ending mixed Monday after a robust three-week short-covering rally, the biggest ever in history, that helped trim the big losses suffered early in 2016. The Dow and S&P 500 gained minimal and the Nasdaq slipped 2%.

Crude Oil received a lot of attention today from investors. The “black gold” commodity jumped up above $40 at one point today and closed at $37.98, which marked a 5.73% gain.

There is a hearty portion of economic data on deck this week to move markets. On Tuesday, Wall Street gets the February reading on small business optimism, on Wednesday January wholesale inventories, to name a few. Investors remain focused on the state of both the domestic and global economies, China in particular as its recent slowed growth has been sending markets into turmoil with ease.

Also coming up, global investors will be closely watching the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday, when the eurozone central bank is expected to further push short-term borrowing rates into negative territory in an effort to jump start growth and boost low inflation readings.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 03/04/2016

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 381 ETFs, of which currently 99 (last week 55) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher. Volume figures can change in a hurry, so be sure to check first before investing.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of 98 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 22 ETFs (last week 13) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 59 (last week 32) above the line and 721 below it out of the 780 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Can US Credit Markets Provide Equity-Like Returns With Less Volatility?

Ulli Market Review Contact

Man

There’s a lot of uncertainty right now with what’s happening with Clinton and Trump and who the Republican nominee would be, which is going to play out over time, said Mark Kiesel, Chief Investment Officer – Global Credit at PIMCO.

Right now PIMCO is focused on big opportunities in the credit market where it sees equity returns with lot less volatility than equities. Given the political risks, PIMCO thinks bonds, particularly corporate bonds are the best place to be, he noted.

Asked if corporate bonds are overall the best place to be irrespective of whether Clinton or Trump wins, Mark said there would certainly be winners and losers among the different industry sectors depending upon whether a Democrat or a Republican wins.

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New ETFs On The Block: Proshares MSCI Emerging Markets Dividend Growers ETF (EMDV)

Ulli Dividend ETFs, Emerging Markets ETFs Contact

Investing

While emerging market stocks have been hammered over the past year due to falling energy and material prices, many investors believe time could be ripe for cherry picking quality stocks outside materials, energy and banking stocks.

That puts the focus on emerging market dividend growers with an established history of growing payouts.

ProShares, the exchange-traded funds provider known for its alternative investment offerings, recently expanded its suite of funds that specifically target companies with long-term records of consistent dividend growth. The newly launched ProShares MSCI Emerging Markets Dividend Growers ETF (EMDV), the firm’s sixth ETF in the ProShares lineup of dividend growers funds, targets sustained dividend growth to enhance income potential.

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For March 4, 2016

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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https://theetfbully.com/2016/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03012016/

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Market Commentary

EQUITIES POST THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK OF GAINS

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks rallied Friday to log a third straight week of gains after the February jobs report came in stronger than expected, signaling that the economy continues to grow despite slowing growth overseas and early-year financial turbulence.

Of course, as usual, the surface number of 242,000 (vs. 195,000 expected) generated a lot of enthusiasm, but when looking under the hood it showed that over 80% of the newly created jobs belonged to the lowest paying categories like retail, bartenders and waitresses; hardly awe inspiring but certainly indicative of the current economic environment.

In addition, and to add insult to injury, during the month of February average weekly earnings dropped 0.7%, the largest ever.

However, in the end, none of that mattered as the indexes, while slowing down their torrid pace, continued on their upward trajectory this week with the S&P 500 adding +2.67% and closing just shy of the 2,000 mark. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also notched its first four-session winning streak since October with the oil rally, based on hope that a bottom has been made, supplying the powder for this explosive bear market move.

With the jobs report having come in above expectations, at least the headline number, the big open questions it remains as to whether this will be enough to keep the Fed on target with their next scheduled interest hike later on this month.

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