One Man’s Opinion: Is The Authenticity Of GDP Data Questionable?

Ulli Market Review Contact

ManWhile recent GDP readings have showed inconsistency repeatedly, investors should not ignore GDP readings totally, said IHS chief economist Nariman Behravesh.

But there are at least three different problems with the GDP data series. The first is seasonality; there are huge swings in seasonality – for instance the first-quarter data is almost always underestimated. The government doesn’t seem to know how to deal with the first-quarter GDP data – whether it’s bad weather or something else.

If investors go back in history, the GDP data is always way off, especially the first-quarter reading because of seasonal adjustment problems. Secondly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics allows the inventory numbers to swing the headline GDP reading a lot because inventory numbers are highly volatile. While the GDP reading bounces around, employment readings have been fairly steady.

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New ETFs On The Block: Wisdomtree CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Strategy Fund (PUTW)

Ulli Put Option Strategy Contact

InvestingInstitutional investors have been selling or writing put options for many years to boost income when markets are placid and trend sideways.

Put options are financial derivative contracts that gives the buyer/owner the ‘right’ to sell an underlying asset (e.g. stocks) at a pre-agreed strike price on a stipulated date (e.g. one month/ three months from the date of purchase).

The seller/writer of put option is obligated to buy the asset if the option buyer chooses to exercise the put option on the stipulated date. The buyer of the put option pays a small premium for buying the ‘right,’ and if the contract reaches expiration without being exercised, the put writer/seller gets to keep 100 percent of the premium.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/24/2016

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, March 24, 2016

TOC010716

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 11/13/2015

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in above chart) has recently crawled above its long term trend line (red) and finally generated a new “Buy” signal effective 11/3/15. The market subsequently dropped, and we exited again on 11/13/15. As of today, the TTI has just crawled above its trend line by +0.27%. This is move is not enough to generate a new Buy signal. Stay tuned for daily updates and any changes to our position.

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For March 24, 2016

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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https://theetfbully.com/2016/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03242016/

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Market Commentary

MARKETS UNCHANGED FOR THE DAY BUT DOWN FOR THE WEEK

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Heading into the long weekend, U.S. stocks showed weakness amid renewed talks of a coming interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, a resurgent dollar and falling oil prices, putting an end to their five-week winning streak.

Investor sentiment has cooled following the terror attacks in Brussels as well as comments the past two days from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard that hinted that the next interest rate hike could come sooner than investors have anticipated.

We were also digesting economic news. Durable goods, or sales of long-lasting, big-ticket items like refrigerators and washing machines, fell 2.8% in February. The weak reading suggests “that companies and households are still very cautious in their spending,” Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA told clients in a report.

As a side note, Thursday marked the end of the trading week. U.S. financial markets are closed Friday in observance of Good Friday.

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Markets Slip On Oil Pullback

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

There wasn’t a lot of news for the markets to react to today, so reactionaries moved back to their fallback…oil prices. Oil prices were down more than 3% after the U.S. government reported a crude build three times above analysts’ expectations.

Virgin America stole a number of headlines today after news reports stated that the company is considering selling a part or its entire business. Virgin America’s shares gained 13.7% to $34.87. Virgin America is the U.S. offshoot of billionaire entrepreneur Richard Branson’s London-based Virgin Group, which is involved in airlines, railroads, telecommunications, media and hospitality.

Stocks that moved lower today included Sun Edison, Nike after reporting lower-than-expected revenue, and ConocoPhillips. The energy company slid along with the rest of the sector after reports of growing U.S. stockpiles.

Looking ahead for the week, we will get a read on durable goods for February. Analysts are expecting a 3% drop for new orders. Fed watch continues with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaking in New York and pre-orders begin for Apple’s new iPhone SE smartphone, its cheapest iPhone to date.

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Terrorists Fail To Shake Markets

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks in the U.S. and Europe on Tuesday basically shook off the deadly terror strikes at an airport and metro station in Brussels. U.S. investors didn’t overreact, as terror acts have unfortunately become more common. After opening slightly lower, the major benchmarks climbed above break-even in afternoon trade, before ending mixed.

Taking the bulk of the early hit in the stock market were travel-related shares in Europe.  Low-cost air carriers were down but off their earlier lows, with Ryanair  down 2.1% and EasyJet off 1.3%. AirFrance was down more than 4% and Paris-based hotel chain operator Accor fell 3.8%.

U.S. airlines canceled flights to Brussels as security measures were tightened across Europe. The move lower for airline stocks spread to the U.S. American Airlines (AAL) fell 1.63%. United Continental (UAL) was off 1.14%. And Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed 1.46% lower.

Some investors did seek out so-called safe havens, such as gold. An ounce of gold was trading $10 higher, or 0.8%, to $1,254 early in the day and closed up at $1,247.25 an ounce.

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