ETF Tracker Newsletter For June 6, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

GOLDILOCKS JOBS REPORT LIFTS MARKETS—BUT INFLATION CLOUDS LOOM

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The much-anticipated May jobs report landed with a bit of a surprise—U.S. payrolls rose by 139,000, beating expectations of 125,000.

While that’s a step down from April’s revised 147,000, it wasn’t enough to push the Fed into action. Unemployment held steady, and the labor market still looks pretty balanced.

Markets loved it. The S&P 500 broke back above the 6,000 mark for the first time since February, and the Dow finally clawed its way out of the red for 2025.

Tesla helped fuel the rally, bouncing nearly 4% after Thursday’s 14% nosedive. Big tech names like Nvidia, Meta, and Apple also chipped in with modest gains.

Earlier in the week, some data hinted at a possible economic slowdown, raising questions about how ongoing tariff talks and the Fed’s next move (June 17–18) might play out. For now, rate-cut hopes have cooled. Trump called for a full-point cut, but traders aren’t buying it.

A short squeeze added extra juice to the rally, especially for the Mag7 stocks, which continued to outpace the rest of the S&P 500. Small caps and the Nasdaq led the charge for the week.

Bond yields jumped on the strong jobs data, lifting across the board. The dollar, despite Friday’s bounce, logged its weakest weekly close since July 2023. Gold pulled back slightly at the close but still managed a small weekly gain.

Bitcoin dipped a bit over the past five sessions, briefly testing $101K before rebounding toward $105K.

One thing that stood out: a growing divergence between global liquidity and the S&P 500.

Some analysts, including those at ZeroHedge, see this as a sign of potential central bank reflation. Translation? More inflation could be on the way.

So, here’s the big question: Are you positioned for a world where inflation might be making a comeback? Got gold, silver, or crypto in your corner?

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 06/05/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, June 5, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +0.83% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

Read More

Silver Shines, Tesla Tumbles: A Wild Day On Wall Street

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The day started off on shaky ground, with markets slipping early as fresh trade headlines put a lid on any bullish momentum.

China’s Foreign Ministry said Presidents Trump and Xi had a phone call—initiated by Trump—but details were scarce. Trump called it a “very positive conclusion,” but investors weren’t exactly buying it.

On the economic front, jobless claims ticked up to 247,000 last week—8,000 more than the previous week and above the expected 236,000. Combined with weaker-than-expected ADP private payroll data, all eyes are now on tomorrow’s official jobs report, where the forecast is for a 125,000 gain.

Then things really unraveled. The ongoing slugfest between Trump and Musk escalated dramatically, sending Tesla shares tumbling over 17%. Retail investors, many of whom had been buying the recent dips, got caught in the crossfire. The MAG 7 stocks underperformed the rest of the S&P 500, as the tweet storm reached a fever pitch.

Bond yields reversed course and climbed into the close. Gold started strong but faded, ending lower. The dollar took a wild ride—first dropping, then surging. Bitcoin lost its footing and fell to a three-week low.

The one bright spot? Silver, which spiked 3.5% and stood out in an otherwise gloomy session.

With all this turbulence, the big question now is: Will tomorrow’s jobs report calm the markets—or add more fuel to the fire?

Read More

Gold Shines, Dollar Sinks: Is The Labor Market Cracking?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the market

Despite a weak jobs report, stocks opened higher. ADP reported that private sector hiring added just 37,000 jobs in May—way below the already-lowered April figure of 60,000 and far short of the 110,000 economists were expecting. That’s raising eyebrows ahead of Friday’s big non-farm payroll report, which is forecast to show a gain of 125,000.

The disappointing data put a dent in the “strong labor market” narrative. In fact, the surprise index dropped to levels we haven’t seen since before the 2024 election. That prompted a fiery tweetstorm from Trump, pressuring Fed Chair Powell to cut rates.

Tech stocks tried to keep the mood upbeat. Nvidia and Broadcom led the charge again, helping the Nasdaq close in the green. But the Dow and S&P 500 couldn’t keep up and ended the day mixed.

Meanwhile, bond yields plunged—especially the 30-year, which saw one of its biggest one-day drops in a year and a half. The dollar followed suit, hitting new lows not seen since July 2023.

That weakness gave gold a boost, sending it soaring past $3,400 intraday. Bitcoin dipped slightly but found support around $105K.

Now, all eyes are on Friday’s payroll report. Will it confirm a slowdown—or surprise us all?

Continue reading…

2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)

Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.

This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.

Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

The Dow and S&P 500 lost steam after a promising open and ended the day pretty much flat. The Nasdaq, however, managed to stay in the green, showing a bit of bullish energy.

As for our TTIs, they went in different directions—the international markets showed some improvement, while the domestic side pulled back a bit.

This is how we closed 06/04/2025:

Domestic TTI: +1.10% above its M/A (prior close +1.33%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.

International TTI: +6.66% above its M/A (prior close +6.34%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.

All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.

———————————————————-

WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.

Stocks Rally On Job Openings Boost—But Will Payrolls Play Along?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Markets picked up where they left off yesterday, building on modest gains despite a flat start as traders kept a close eye on potential developments in U.S.-China trade talks.** 

However, not everything was working in the bulls’ favor. The OECD trimmed its U.S. growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.2%, casting a bit of a shadow over the day’s optimism. That news initially pushed bond yields lower, but they later reversed sharply as hopes for rate cuts began to fade.

Trade tensions remained a key theme, with negotiations between the U.S. and China reportedly hitting more turbulence. Still, some analysts remain upbeat about the market’s short-term outlook, pointing to seasonal trends—historically, the next six weeks tend to be among the strongest stretches of the year, rivaling even the fourth quarter.

On the data front, the JOLTS report surprised to the upside, showing more job openings than expected. That, along with a boost in retail sentiment, helped fuel a midday rally and triggered a short squeeze that pushed markets even higher.

Elsewhere, the dollar rebounded from last week’s lows, putting pressure on gold, which gave back some recent gains. Bitcoin, true to form, continued its rollercoaster ride—up, down, and back up again.

All eyes are now on Friday’s jobs report. With job openings on the rise, the big question is: Will a strong payroll number be good news for stocks—or will it spook investors worried about fewer rate cuts?

Read More

Gold And Silver Shine As Trade Fears Weigh On Dollar

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Global trade tensions had markets on edge early in the day, with major indexes slipping into the red right out of the gate.

The pressure came after China pushed back on U.S. claims that it had violated a temporary trade deal—blaming Washington for not holding up its end. The back-and-forth between the two powers made it clear that negotiations are heading in the wrong direction.

Meanwhile, tensions flared between the U.S. and the European Union after Trump announced a plan to double steel tariffs to 50%. The EU warned that this move could inject more uncertainty into the global economy and drive up consumer costs on both sides of the Atlantic.

Despite the rocky start, markets found their footing. A short squeeze kicked in early and helped lift the major indexes into the green by the close.

In the bond market, yields climbed as hopes for a 2025 rate cut faded. The dollar slipped to its lowest level since July 2023.

Gold had a standout day—jumping 2.73% and breaking out of its downtrend channel—while silver surged an impressive 5.3%. Bitcoin stayed rangebound but held support around the $104K mark.

ZeroHedge shared an updated global liquidity chart (with a 3-month lag), hinting that if history repeats, bitcoin could be on a path toward $200K.

So, with all this volatility and momentum, are we looking at the start of a summer breakout—or just another head fake?

Read More