- Moving the market
Stocks came out strong in early trading, kicking off the holiday‑shortened week on a high note after President Trump announced that an agreement had been reached to end the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
The Dow jumped about 630 points (1.2%) and even tagged a fresh intraday all‑time high.
Meanwhile, SpaceX kept the momentum going—rallying more than 7% after its massive 19% surge during Friday’s market debut.
Over the weekend, Trump posted that the deal with Iran was “now complete.” It’s expected to be formalized as a memorandum of understanding (MOU), with a signing set for Friday in Switzerland, according to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif.
Of course, it’s still early days—there’s plenty of fine print left to hash out before everything is finalized.
The timing of the announcement was notable, coming right after fresh tensions in the Middle East, including exchanges of fire involving Israel and Hezbollah, had cast doubt on whether a deal would get done at all.
On the energy front, Trump also authorized the reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil prices sharply lower. Vice President JD Vance added that the goal is to keep the passage open toll‑free for the long term. As a result, U.S. crude dropped about 5%, hovering near $80 per barrel.
Back in equities, leadership flipped a bit—this time the Mag 7 clearly stole the spotlight, outperforming the rest of the S&P 500 by a wide margin.
Bond yields were mixed, while the dollar slid to its lowest level since June 5. Gold extended its rebound, climbing back above $4,300 after dipping close to $4,000 just a few days ago.
Crypto joined the party as well. Bitcoin was in full “rip” mode, jumping nearly 5%, pushing past $67K, and logging its best day since early March.
While the technical setup has supported this steady squeeze higher in risk assets over the past couple of months, it’s worth remembering that leverage remains elevated. If markets start to wobble, any downside move could accelerate quickly and turn into a sharper selloff.
The big question now is: does this rally have more room to run, or are we setting up for a volatility spike if sentiment suddenly shifts?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes kicked off the session with strong gains, partly boosted by Friday’s successful SpaceX IPO launch, but more significantly driven by Trump’s announcement that a deal with Iran has been reached.
That said, this agreement is only a memorandum of understanding (MOU). It signals progress, but there’s still plenty of work ahead, with detailed negotiations expected to continue over the next couple of months before anything is fully finalized.
Markets were firmly in rally mode across the board. Metals joined the move higher, and Bitcoin stood out as a clear outperformer.
Our TTIs participated as well, with both posting some solid gains on the day.
This is how we closed 06/15/2026:
Domestic TTI: +8.93% above its M/A (prior close +8.30%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +9.75% above its M/A (prior close +9.05%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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