ETF Tracker StatSheet
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GOLDILOCKS JOBS REPORT LIFTS MARKETS—BUT INFLATION CLOUDS LOOM
- Moving the market
The much-anticipated May jobs report landed with a bit of a surprise—U.S. payrolls rose by 139,000, beating expectations of 125,000.
While that’s a step down from April’s revised 147,000, it wasn’t enough to push the Fed into action. Unemployment held steady, and the labor market still looks pretty balanced.
Markets loved it. The S&P 500 broke back above the 6,000 mark for the first time since February, and the Dow finally clawed its way out of the red for 2025.
Tesla helped fuel the rally, bouncing nearly 4% after Thursday’s 14% nosedive. Big tech names like Nvidia, Meta, and Apple also chipped in with modest gains.
Earlier in the week, some data hinted at a possible economic slowdown, raising questions about how ongoing tariff talks and the Fed’s next move (June 17–18) might play out. For now, rate-cut hopes have cooled. Trump called for a full-point cut, but traders aren’t buying it.
A short squeeze added extra juice to the rally, especially for the Mag7 stocks, which continued to outpace the rest of the S&P 500. Small caps and the Nasdaq led the charge for the week.
Bond yields jumped on the strong jobs data, lifting across the board. The dollar, despite Friday’s bounce, logged its weakest weekly close since July 2023. Gold pulled back slightly at the close but still managed a small weekly gain.
Bitcoin dipped a bit over the past five sessions, briefly testing $101K before rebounding toward $105K.
One thing that stood out: a growing divergence between global liquidity and the S&P 500.
Some analysts, including those at ZeroHedge, see this as a sign of potential central bank reflation. Translation? More inflation could be on the way.
So, here’s the big question: Are you positioned for a world where inflation might be making a comeback? Got gold, silver, or crypto in your corner?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The markets kicked off the day with a strong rally, thanks to jobs data that came in better than expected. Traders saw it as a “Goldilocks” moment—not too hot, not too cold—just right for keeping the momentum going.
By the end of the week, all major indexes had locked in solid gains.
Our TTIs were right in step, pulling further ahead of their trend lines and showing improved upward momentum.
This is how we closed 06/06/2025:
Domestic TTI: +1.55% above its M/A (prior close +0.83%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.66% above its M/A (prior close +6.55%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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