- Moving the market
Despite a weak jobs report, stocks opened higher. ADP reported that private sector hiring added just 37,000 jobs in May—way below the already-lowered April figure of 60,000 and far short of the 110,000 economists were expecting. That’s raising eyebrows ahead of Friday’s big non-farm payroll report, which is forecast to show a gain of 125,000.
The disappointing data put a dent in the “strong labor market” narrative. In fact, the surprise index dropped to levels we haven’t seen since before the 2024 election. That prompted a fiery tweetstorm from Trump, pressuring Fed Chair Powell to cut rates.
Tech stocks tried to keep the mood upbeat. Nvidia and Broadcom led the charge again, helping the Nasdaq close in the green. But the Dow and S&P 500 couldn’t keep up and ended the day mixed.
Meanwhile, bond yields plunged—especially the 30-year, which saw one of its biggest one-day drops in a year and a half. The dollar followed suit, hitting new lows not seen since July 2023.
That weakness gave gold a boost, sending it soaring past $3,400 intraday. Bitcoin dipped slightly but found support around $105K.
Now, all eyes are on Friday’s payroll report. Will it confirm a slowdown—or surprise us all?
Continue reading…
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The Dow and S&P 500 lost steam after a promising open and ended the day pretty much flat. The Nasdaq, however, managed to stay in the green, showing a bit of bullish energy.
As for our TTIs, they went in different directions—the international markets showed some improvement, while the domestic side pulled back a bit.
This is how we closed 06/04/2025:
Domestic TTI: +1.10% above its M/A (prior close +1.33%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.66% above its M/A (prior close +6.34%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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