- Moving the market
U.S. stocks got off to a strong start, with traders looking to bounce back after the prior session’s sell-off, which was triggered by the Fed hinting that another rate hike this year isn’t off the table.
While the Fed held rates steady, its more hawkish tone took some of the wind out of the market’s sails. That said, the committee itself doesn’t seem fully aligned—only about half of its members are still penciling in additional hikes this year, which adds a layer of uncertainty to the outlook.
On the sector side, semiconductors led the charge. Intel jumped 7% after President Trump announced a partnership with Apple to design chips domestically. That news lifted sentiment across the space, with Nvidia up over 1% and Micron rallying around 6%.
The early strength held throughout the day, and the major indexes finished solidly in the green. The Nasdaq led the way, while the Dow once again lagged.
Meanwhile, worries about a more hawkish Fed—and even concerns around potential new leadership at the central bank—took a back seat.
Instead, the spotlight shifted to the newly signed MOU between the U.S. and Iran, which helped lift sentiment and overshadow yesterday’s rate fears, at least for now.
Even with all the talk of broader participation in the rally, the reality is that leadership remains concentrated. The Mag7 outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 this week, helped in part by today’s strong buying activity.
In the bond market, we saw a bit of a split: short-term yields moved higher while the long end eased, with the 30-year falling below 5% and hitting its lowest level in two months.
The dollar also had a strong showing, extending gains after bouncing off its 200-day moving average. Interestingly, gold managed to finish the week unchanged despite selling pressure in the final two sessions.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, was anything but quiet—it swung sharply and ended the week lower after briefly touching $67K.
At the end of the day, this still feels like a narrow market, driven largely by momentum and a single dominant theme: AI, and the demand for power, compute, and memory. That theme continues to power through just about every headwind thrown its way.
So, will the Iran MOU add a second tailwind that helps sustain this rally—or is the market still leaning too heavily on the same old drivers?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
It looks like yesterday’s worries about a more hawkish Fed quickly faded into the background, as attention shifted to news of the signed MOU between the U.S. and Iran.
The major indexes put in a solid rally overall, although the Dow didn’t quite keep up with the broader market.
In the metals space, the action was pretty muted—copper was the only one that managed a decent gain.
Meanwhile, our TTIs told a mixed story, with the domestic index moving higher while the international one pulled back.
This is how we closed 06/18/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.11% above its M/A (prior close +6.94%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.07% above its M/A (prior close +8.56%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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