- Moving the market
The day started off on shaky ground, with markets slipping early as fresh trade headlines put a lid on any bullish momentum.
China’s Foreign Ministry said Presidents Trump and Xi had a phone call—initiated by Trump—but details were scarce. Trump called it a “very positive conclusion,” but investors weren’t exactly buying it.
On the economic front, jobless claims ticked up to 247,000 last week—8,000 more than the previous week and above the expected 236,000. Combined with weaker-than-expected ADP private payroll data, all eyes are now on tomorrow’s official jobs report, where the forecast is for a 125,000 gain.
Then things really unraveled. The ongoing slugfest between Trump and Musk escalated dramatically, sending Tesla shares tumbling over 17%. Retail investors, many of whom had been buying the recent dips, got caught in the crossfire. The MAG 7 stocks underperformed the rest of the S&P 500, as the tweet storm reached a fever pitch.
Bond yields reversed course and climbed into the close. Gold started strong but faded, ending lower. The dollar took a wild ride—first dropping, then surging. Bitcoin lost its footing and fell to a three-week low.
The one bright spot? Silver, which spiked 3.5% and stood out in an otherwise gloomy session.
With all this turbulence, the big question now is: Will tomorrow’s jobs report calm the markets—or add more fuel to the fire?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
It was another wild day on Wall Street, with the markets swinging back and forth before ultimately losing steam. A mid-day rally gave traders some hope, but that didn’t last long.
The mood quickly shifted after a heated tweet exchange between Trump and Musk, which seemed to spook the markets and wipe out any bullish momentum. By the closing bell, the major indexes were all in the red.
Our TTIs followed suit, dipping slightly, and ending the day modestly lower.
This is how we closed 06/05/2025:
Domestic TTI: +0.83% above its M/A (prior close +1.10%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.55% above its M/A (prior close +6.66%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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