ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For May 6, 2016

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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https://theetfbully.com/2016/05/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-05052016/

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Market Commentary

MEDIOCRE FINISH TO A CHOPPY WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks were lower for the third week in a row as renewed concerns regarding global growth prospects have put pressure on investor sentiment. Additionally, recent domestic economic data has not been as robust as many had expected. Month-to-month economic readings can be choppy, and it’s likely that incoming data will continue to alternate between soft and strong for the time being.

Payroll growth slowed in April as employers added only 160,000 jobs, raising concerns that weak economic growth may finally be crimping the U.S. labor market.

Amazon (AMZN) was back on top today after news was released that the company has doubled the number of air freight cargo planes it is leasing. This, of course, signals meaningful growth is in store for the online retail giant. Atlas Air Worldwide (AAWW) on Thursday said it had signed an agreement with the Seattle internet retailer to operate 20 Boeing 767 for the company for ten years. As a side note, Amazon will acquire up to 20% of the company in the near future.

 

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) slipped this week but remains bullish. The International TTI, on the other hand, went negative as I posted before. While we’re technically still in Buy mode, I suggest you hold off with any purchases as a whip-saw signal may materialize next week if the upward momentum does not pick up.

Here’s how we closed this Friday:

Domestic TTI: +1.11% (last Friday +1.29%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: -1.08% (last Friday +0.46%)—Buy signal effective 4/28/2016

Have a great weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

https://theetfbully.com/questions-answers/

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/05/2016

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, May 5, 2016

TOC042816

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 4/4/2016

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in above chart) has recently crossed above its long term trend line (red) by +1.05% generating a new Domestic Buy signal effective 4/4/2016 as posted on the blog.

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May Proving To Be Unpredictable

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks struggled to stay above ground today. Early morning movement was positive, however, roller coasters go up and they go down. The Dow was the only major index to finish in positive territory on the day.

U.S. produced crude prices are on the rise again as raging forest fires in Alberta, a key oil sands region, caused production shortages. Crude was up 0.8% to $44.16 after rising as high as $46.07 earlier in the trading day. S&P’s energy sector is up 0.5%, tracking the rise in crude prices to the upside.

Wall Street is looking ahead to the April jobs report, which is in queue for Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Analysts are forecasting that 200,000 new jobs were created last month, but a weaker-than-expected reading on new jobs created in the private sector is provoking investors to expect a lower number. Before Thursday’s opening bell, the number of Americans lining up for first-time jobless benefits jumped more than expected to 274,000, up 17,000 from the prior week.

Tesla shares dropped 5% today as investors expressed skepticism over the company’s plan to accelerate and ramp up deliveries of its electric vehicles. The stock has been volatile recently. Yesterday, shares jumped as much as 7% in after-hours trading after they announced Q1 earnings that showed a loss just slightly less than the Street forecast.

Read More

Stocks Continue Slide Through Mid-Week As Bad News Is Bad News.

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks fell again, which is in line with the trend for the week thus far as for a long overdue change bad news is recognized as bad news.  Investors are pondering weaker-than-expected readings on job creation in the private sector last month, mixed with good news on the services sector of the economy. The slide today extended yesterday’s sell-off, which has pushed the Dow to a three-week low.

In economic news, payroll processor ADP said private employers created 156,000 new jobs in April, far below expectations of close to 200,000. The weak number raised concerns that the April jobs report released Friday by the government might also fall shy of the 200,000 estimate. Growth fears and overseas news also weighed on equities. Investor sentiment was hurt when a key Chinese manufacturing data point for April came in weak, causing growth fears to resurface once again.

On the plus side, the Institute for Supply Management’s April reading on the non-manufacturing part of the economy, or services sector, came in strong at 55.7, topping estimates of 54.8. March factory orders also topped analysts’ expectations, rising 1.1%. The nation’s trade deficit also narrowed in March to $40.4 billion.

A new worry-point for Wall Street is the recent strength in foreign currencies vs. the dollar. The yen is trading at an 18-month high vs.the greenback, which is likely to put further pressure on Japanese exporters and adding to angst over growth. The euro has also been climbing, putting a strain on eurozone firms that sell stuff abroad. We are also dealing with a stalled economy, with first-quarter GDP coming in below expectations at 0.5%.

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Bummer Of A Tuesday After Hyped Monday

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, following weak manufacturing data from China. Stocks reversed course and gave back all of the solid gains achieved on Monday.

The lack of economic growth, here in the U.S., which I have alluded to in the past, continues to put a damper on financial markets. U.S. GDP, for example, logged a weak 0.5% in the initial read for Q1. Also, talk of a U.S. economy in so-called stall speed, coupled with contracting corporate earnings and continued uncertainty over central bank policy moves around the world, has held U.S. stocks back recently.

In stock specific news, iPhone maker Apple (APPL) was hoping to break an eight session losing streak, its longest since 1998. Apple shares are down 11% so far in 2016 and have tumbled nearly 13% in its eight-session slide. In early trading, Apple shares jumped 1.9% to $95.41.

On the earnings front, drug-maker Pfizer (PFE) topped quarterly earnings forecasts by 12 cents. Its shares were up sharply, rallying 3.2%.

Read More

Positive Start To May After Hectic April

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Today marks the first trading day of May, and ushers in what has historically been the worst six-month stretch for stocks. And while there’s no denying that history shows the May-through-September period delivers far lower stock returns than the more bullish October-through-April time frame, implementing this rather extreme market-timing approach to investing might be a bit of overkill. After all, we prefer letting our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) and trailing sell stops be our guide to market exposure.

The S&P 500 remains above 2,000 and the DOW keeps flirting with 18,000. U.S. Crude also has maintained a steady climb to $45.00 a barrel but got pulled off its lofty levels today.

To kick off the month in economic news, a gauge of U.S. factory activity fell in April as U.S. macro data continue to slump and China data weakens.

In earnings news, Cisco (CSCO) reported better-than-expected Q3 results as volume rose and the firm’s cost-cutting measures took hold.

With earnings season pretty much over, investors are keeping their eyes on the upcoming summer months to see how currency issues and oil prices (which are on the rise) will impact markets.

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