Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 12/20/2012

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Wednesday, December 20, 2012

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +1.83% after recently having dipped slightly below it.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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Equities Advance On Fiscal Cliff Hopes; Europe Little Changed As Optimism Fades

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities firmed up Thursday with the S&P 500 rebounding from its worst slump in five weeks, as House Speaker John Boehner expressed optimism about reaching a deal with President Obama.

Sentiment also got a boost after third-quarter economic growth was revised higher at an annualized pace of 3.1 percent, much higher than the 1.3 percent rate recorded in the second quarter. Weekly jobless claims however rose by 17,000 to 361,000 in the latest week.

In other economic news, existing-home sales rose 5.9 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.09 million, data released by the National Association of Realtors showed. Another report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showed manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region rebounded in December.

Republicans in Congress will vote later Thursday on Plan B, a Boehner’s version of raising taxes on incomes over $1 million aimed at preventing more than $600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts from coming into effect next year.

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Fiscal Cliff Regression As Negotiations Stall; Europe Rises On German Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Stocks turned lower after a two-day rally, pulling the S&P 500 down from a two-month high, as negotiations to avert deep spending cuts and tax hikes hit a rocky patch, fuelling concerns the economy may go over the so-called fiscal cliff next year.

White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer said President Obama would veto a tax and spending proposal presented by House Speaker John Boehner since it would give millionaires a tax break of $50,000 while eliminating tax cuts that 25 million households and students depend on.

Investors seemed to ignore the latest warning from ratings agency Fitch earlier in the day, which reiterated it may strip the US of its AAA rating if the stalemate over budget negotiations continued and politicians failed to strike a deal on increasing the debt ceiling.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 12/18/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Hope, that a compromise to the fiscal cliff issue will be soon forthcoming, proved to be a powerful driver, which propelled the major market indexes to another 1.3% gain (S&P 500) since last week’s ETF model portfolio report.

Especially the past two trading days have seen the averages go vertical, which makes me wonder if this will a confirmation of the old adage “buy the rumor, sell the fact.” It remains to be seen if these out-of-economic-reality market levels can be sustained should the fiscal cliff be avoided.

Needless to say that in this environment balanced portfolios are lagging, with #5 leading the pack to the upside due to its 100% equity exposure. Again, you can’t measure portfolio performance just during a brief up period, but you need to combine a bullish and a bearish cycle in order to make your evaluation.

Here’s the latest update of our ETF Model Portfolios:

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Equity Indexes Go Vertical On Fiscal Cliff Hope; Eerie Chart Of The Day; Europe Tracks Higher

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equity indexes extended gains into a second session with the S&P 500 index hitting its highest level in two months amid signs of progress in Washington in reaching a deal to avert a hike in taxes and steep spending cuts next year.

Stocks surged higher after House Republicans held a news conference to say they would continue to engage the president while working on an alternative plan that would include tax hikes for Americans making more $1 million annually. Democrats however immediately rejected the proposal as inadequate.

The White House softened its stand on late Monday when President Obama offered to start tax rate increases at $400,000 in earnings instead of $250,000, lowering his tax revenue demand by $200 billion. The revised plan would cut $1.22 trillion in spending while raising $1.2 trillion in taxes in the next decade.

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Hopium Lifts Equities As Budget Talks Are Still Alive; Europe Turns Lower On Cliff Worries

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Led by gains in financial stocks, US equity indexes pushed higher with the S&P 500 logging its biggest gain in about a month, as markets weighed news of progress on budget negotiations in Washington to avoid tax hikes and spending cuts that may tip the economy back in recession.

With about two week weeks remaining to avert going over the fiscal cliff, House Speaker John Boehner met President Obama for about 45 minutes at the White House. Boehner has suggested over the weekend, he was open to higher tax rates for wealthiest Americans while, according to Bloomberg, Obama is considering concessions on Social Security benefit increases in return. Boehner has also offered to extend the debt ceiling for a year in order to help reduce the budget deficit, reported CNN.

Separately, manufacturing in the New York region shrank more than forecast in December with the Empire State manufacturing index falling to minus 8.1 from minus 5.2 in November. The New York Fed’s benchmark is in the negative territory for the fifth straight month now, but at this point the markets chose to ignore bad fundamental news.

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