03-22-2013

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, March 22, 2013

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03212013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, March 22, 2013

INDEX ETFs ADVANCE ON EARNINGS AND CYPRUS DEAL HOPES; EUROPE SLIPS ON UNCERTAINTY

Equities rose Friday, trimming the second weekly drop of the year for the S&P 500 Index as corporate earnings beat street estimates and on optimism that Cyprus will reach a deal before Monday to rescue the nation’s troubled banks.

Nike Inc rallied 11 percent after the world’s largest sporting-goods manufacturer reported improved gross margin for the first time in nine quarters.

Micron Technology Inc surged 10.7 percent after the chipmaker reported sales that beat estimates even though its quarterly loss widened.

Cypriot officials began debating legislation that’ll help unlock bailout funds needed to prevent a banking collapse. Government spokesman Christos Stylianides said talks with the so-called troika of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund were in the final stages.

Talks between Cypriot finance minister and the Russian government broke down early Friday; with Moscow declining to commit fresh funding that could help the island nation avoid a default. Nearly one-third of Cyprus’ outsized banking sector is from Russian oligarchs.

The ECB has threatened to cut emergency liquidity measures for Cypriot banks after Monday unless it comes to an agreement with the troika of the EU, the ECB and the IMF.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged 91 points to 14,512, with 23 of its 30 components gaining for the day. The blue-chip index however, finished lower on the week, slipping less than 0.01 percent.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 11 points to 1,557 with consumer discretionary, consumer staples energy and telecommunications leading the gains among its 10 business groups. The benchmark index was down 0.2 percent for the week.

Treasuries changed little on Friday as investors grew confident about Cyprus’ ability to raise its part of the funds to secure the EUR 10 billion bailout, diminishing the allure of safe-haven assets.

Across the Atlantic, most European stock markets closed in the red as the Cypriot lawmakers struggled to meet the ECB’s Monday deadline for putting together a bailout plan.

One of the latest plans suggested by Cyprus was rejected by Germany. The island nation had proposed to bundle state assets and pension funds to form an investment fund that could be used as collateral for fresh bonds.

Additionally, Greece and Cyprus agreed to demerge Greek units of indebted Cypriot banks, protecting them from the potential levy on bank deposits.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) showed a mixed picture as the Domestic TTI held steady while the International TTI dropped. For the week, we closed as follows:

Domestic TTI: +3.50% (last week +3.51%)

International TTI: +8.40% (last week +10.50%)

Again, we will hold all equity ETF positions until our exit strategy signals otherwise.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader John:

Q: Ulli: I’m a long term follower of your work, which I really appreciate. I spend every Saturday reviewing your Stat Sheets. I noticed that you rank the various MFs/ETFs by M- Index on the Stat Sheets, while you rank them by % MA on the Cut Line Report… Why is that?

A: John: The reason is that you have a different view of the rankings. Some readers prefer looking at the Cutline report wanting to track those funds/ETFs that barely have or are about to cross their respective long-term trend lines to the upside, in order to get aboard early. Others prefer using the M-Index to make that decision. So, a different sorting order will better accommodate the various investing styles.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, March 22, 2013

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03212013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, March 22, 2013

INDEX ETFs ADVANCE ON EARNINGS AND CYPRUS DEAL HOPES; EUROPE SLIPS ON UNCERTAINTY

Equities rose Friday, trimming the second weekly drop of the year for the S&P 500 Index as corporate earnings beat street estimates and on optimism that Cyprus will reach a deal before Monday to rescue the nation’s troubled banks.

Nike Inc rallied 11 percent after the world’s largest sporting-goods manufacturer reported improved gross margin for the first time in nine quarters.

Micron Technology Inc surged 10.7 percent after the chipmaker reported sales that beat estimates even though its quarterly loss widened.

Cypriot officials began debating legislation that’ll help unlock bailout funds needed to prevent a banking collapse. Government spokesman Christos Stylianides said talks with the so-called troika of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund were in the final stages.

Talks between Cypriot finance minister and the Russian government broke down early Friday; with Moscow declining to commit fresh funding that could help the island nation avoid a default. Nearly one-third of Cyprus’ outsized banking sector is from Russian oligarchs.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/21/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, March 21, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.29% as part of the post election rebound.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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US Stock Indexes Decline As Europe, Oracle Weighs; Europe Slides On German Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks slumped today, posting there biggest slide in nearly a month, as weak eurozone economic data, the continued crisis in Cyprus and disappointing quarterly earnings of Oracle Corp. eclipsed better-than-estimated American economic data.

Early Thursday, the European Central Bank said it may cut off emergency funding to Cypriot banks if it fails to reach a bailout deal with international lenders by Monday as the island nation’s president Nicos Anastasiades struggled to forge agreement on a deal to stave off financial meltdown.

Speaking to the European parliament on Thursday, president of euro-zone finance ministers Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said the original proposal offered to Cyprus wasn’t dead yet and it’s difficult for the country to find alternatives; and so the saga continues.

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Fed’s ‘All-Clear’ Lifts US Equities; Europe Recovers From Cyprus Drop

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Equities recovered from yesterday’s minor pullback, with the S&P 500 Index snapping its first three-day decline of the year, after the Federal Reserve said it would continue to support the US recovery (AKA continuing its relentless money printing efforts) while eurozone leaders mulled options for Cyprus.

Speaking to reporters at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said he didn’t find anything out of line with the stock market’s rise, citing growing optimism. Policymakers left the central bank’s $85 billion a month bond purchase plan unchanged as long as unemployment remains above 6.5 percent and inflation forecasts don’t exceed 2.5 percent.

The committee, however, lowered its expectations for the unemployment rate at the end of the year to a range of 7.3 – 7.5 percent, from an earlier forecast of 7.4 – 7.7 percent. Economic growth forecast for the year was revised down between 2.3 and 2.8 percent from an earlier estimate of 2.3 and 3 percent.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 3/19/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Upside momentum slowed down as shown by the S&P’s short-term sideways pattern with the benchmark giving back 4 points since last Wednesday’s ETF Model Portfolio report.

While we came within 2 points of taking out the 2007 high, it was not yet to be, as the crisis in Cyprus pulled the major indexes off their highs, although Europe was much more affected than the US for the time being.

It’s too early to tell how that situation will play out, but the gauntlet, in form of the government attempting to reach into depositors’ bank accounts to remove money at will, has been thrown down with yet unknown consequences. Where I come from, we refer to that simply as theft.

Sounds to me that this is just a test to gauge population resistance and may very well be used again in the future by desperate and EU manipulated governments in dire need of funds. Right now, however, the Cypriot parliament has voted down this proposal, and we’ll have to wait and see how this story develops.

In the meantime, here is the latest update for our Model ETF Portfolios:

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