Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 12/04/2014

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, December 4, 2014

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If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +3.62% keeping us in the market with newly established positions.

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Stocks Move Into The Red On ECB’s Decision To Hold Off On Stimulus

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

If you read the article yesterday, then you may remember me mentioning that investors would be paying close attention to the ECB’s move on buying bonds to stimulate the Eurozone. Well, today we heard that the European Central Bank decided not to implement a U.S. style stimulus and markets took a small hit accordingly.

ECB head Mario Draghi said the bank has “stepped up” preparations for launching new stimulus measures for the economy, but would not make any decision on further steps early next year. Also, the bank’s benchmark interest rate was left unchanged at 0.05%.

Great news for Starbucks (SBUX) lovers. The stock flirted with an all-time high today after the company unveiled an ambitious growth plan to add stores, new menu offerings and alcoholic beverages. The growth strategy is aimed at doubling annual revenue by the year 2019.

And in the auto world, you may have seen recent headlines that November was a huge month for auto sales. Several automakers, including Subaru and Audi, were powered by November results to all-time annual U.S. sales records. With the economy allegedly picking up and credit still readily available and cheap, things are looking good for December.

1 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight closed up and made a new high in the process. See the YTD table for details.

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Markets Remain On Fire Headed Into The Snowy Season

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Another day of record highs for the S&P and Dow. Surprised? Not really. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose 0.38%, while the Dow gained 0.18%. Again, the continued increase in the S&P 500 bodes the question; will it hit 2,100 by the end of the year?

Energy stocks led gainers again today and shook off recent tumbling commodity prices. Halliburton (HAL), Cinamerx Energy (XEC), British Petroleum (BP) and Schlumberger (SLB) were the leaders. In ETFs, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was the big gainer, up 1.2%.

We also received a mixed batch of economic news today. The private sector added 208,000 jobs in November, said payroll processor ADP, which was below the estimated 226,000 figure. However, services firms expanded at a faster pace in November, a signal that overall economic growth should remain robust through the end of year.

Many investors will be focusing on the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday, hoping that ECB President Mario Draghi and committee will decide to purchase more government bonds as part of the next round of stimulus measures.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight closed on the plus side with 6 of them making new highs. See the YTD table for details.

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The Dow Tops Off Another Record Close After Cyber Monday

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

All major indexes gained today after a lethargic trading session on Monday. Again, the Dow hit a new record close as all three major indexes gained about 0.6% today.

Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen energy stocks take a big hit due to falling oil prices. However, oil stocks were big gainers for the Dow on Tuesday. Exxon Mobile (XOM), British Petroleum (BP) and Chevron (CVX) all gained more than 2% today, even though oil prices fell another 3%. According to Reuters, much of what drove oil stocks higher today was due to a rumored potential takeover bid of BP from Shell.

We heard some positive economic news today as well: Newly built homes and schools boosted construction spending in October to the highest level since May. The Commerce Department said construction spending rose 1.1% in October, after having slipped 0.1% in September. This news bodes well for the bulls going into the holiday season.

And in retail news, Cyber Monday proved just as big a draw as ever after a weekend that saw fewer people shopping in stores. Sales grew 8.5% for the 24-hour period, according to IBM Digital Analytics, solidifying Monday as the largest online shopping day of the year. Shoppers spent an average of $124.21 per order, down 3.5% from last year, though the number of transactions was up and people bought more items on average per order

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight recovered from yesterday’s sell-off and closed up with 4 of them making new highs. See the YTD table for details.

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Indexes Stumble And Head South

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Finally, the relentless upward march into record territory came to an end, at least for the time being, as equities headed south with the S&P 500 giving back a modest 0.7%, which was its largest one-day loss in more than a month.

Contributing to the sour sentiment was not only Apple’s mini flash-crash but also slowing US manufacturing growth, which continued its downward path for the third straight month. Joining the party were the Eurozone and Asia, where growth eased as well despite heavy price cuts to stimulate demand.

Not helping matters were preliminary Holiday shopping reports indicating that in-store sales were some 6.4% less than last year due to increased online shopping activity.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight closed lower today as the indexes see-sawed and rebound attempts failed to break out above the unchanged line.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/28/2014

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 278 (last week 291) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 44 ETFs (last week 50) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 710 (last week 719) above the line and 136 below it out of the 846 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.