- Moving the market
Thursday’s session had a bit of a split personality. The Nasdaq slid lower despite a monster earnings report from Micron (+14%), as traders rotated out of some of the big-name tech winners.
Meanwhile, the Dow held up much better, even pushing to a new intraday all-time high thanks to strength in non-AI stocks.
Big Tech was clearly under pressure. Apple dragged on the Nasdaq, dropping 5% after announcing price hikes on MacBooks and iPads due to rising chip and component costs.
Microsoft didn’t help either, falling nearly 4% after revealing price increases for Xbox consoles. The recent leadership from the “Magnificent 7” continues to fade, at least for now.
On the inflation front, May’s PCE report came in pretty much as expected. Headline inflation rose 0.4% for the month and 4.1% year-over-year, while core PCE printed at 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annually.
Even though core inflation hit its highest level since October 2023, markets seemed relieved it didn’t come in hotter—especially given rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions.
Macro data overall leaned positive. Income and spending both increased, though the savings rate dipped. GDP revisions came in stronger than expected, even as consumption slowed amid heavy AI-driven investment.
Jobless claims fell, though continuing claims ticked higher. Durable goods orders were still weak, but better than feared, with ex-transportation numbers showing solid improvement. Manufacturing data out of Kansas City also surprised to the upside, hitting multi-year highs.
By the close, the Nasdaq remained modestly in the red, while the Dow and S&P 500 hovered around flat as oil prices rebounded.
Bonds were volatile—yields fell early before climbing back later in the day. The dollar finally paused after a six-day streak higher, giving gold a boost as it reclaimed the $4,000 level. Bitcoin also slipped, pushing back below $60K.
All in all, it was another choppy session across asset classes, with big swings hitting both tech stocks and crypto hardest.
Add in fresh uncertainty around potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and it’s no surprise traders are getting a bit jittery.
So, the big question remains: is this just a temporary rotation out of Big Tech—or the start of a more meaningful shift in market leadership?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The market kicked off strong, but that early momentum didn’t last. Even so, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to bounce back from their intraday lows, while the Dow held steady just above the flat line.
It was a solid session for metals, which finished in the green, and the value ETF also had a standout day, climbing more than 4%.
Both of our TTIs moved higher as well, signaling that the broader market still has some staying power.
This is how we closed 06/25/2026:
Domestic TTI: +8.02% above its M/A (prior close +7.31%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.22% above its M/A (prior close +6.60%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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