Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/24/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, September 24, 2015

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If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/24/2015

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned below its long term trend line (red) by -2.36% after having generated a “Sell” signal as of 8/24/2015, which applies to all “broadly diversified domestic equity ETFs/Mutual Funds.”

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Markets Dive—But Are Still Swimming

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Equities climbed out of a deep dive Thursday, but the Nasdaq slid into negative territory for the calendar year as stocks posted their third straight loss.

The Dow took a hit from Caterpillar (CAT) after the company announced it would be cutting up to 5,000 jobs by the end of 2016 and could potentially shed up to 10,000 workers by the end of 2018. The stock dropped plunged more than 7% on the day.

Investors continue to grapple with a host of negatives, including the stock market’s inability to muster any signs of a lasting bounce, Volkswagen’s (VW) emissions crisis, and persistent worries over interest rates and China’s economic slowdown.

The good news on the economic front today was that the latest reading on weekly first-time initial jobless claims came in at 267,000, below the 272,000 analysts estimated but up slightly from 264,000 in the prior week. Durable goods orders for August fell 2%, but that was a little better than expectations.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight were mixed again as an early sell-off turned into a rebound. Only 2 of them gained, led by the Dividend ETF (DVY) with +0.33% and 8 of them closed below the unchanged line with Healthcare (XLV) being the loser at -1.05%.

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Stocks Continue Dropping; China Buying Big From Boeing

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks posted a second straight day of declines but trimmed earlier losses to end only slightly in the red. Stocks have been on a consistent decline since late August, since fears around China’s slowing economy and global growth in general took hold. As you know, according to my Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), we have been in bear market territory effective 8/24/15.

One thing that could turn market sentiment is a fundamental factor in equity valuation, corporate profits. Corporate earnings season for Q3 will begin in early October and Wall Street hopes upcoming earnings reports can break the volatility that markets have been experiencing.

Shares of German automaker Volkswagen (VLKAY), which admitted it used software to cheat on emissions tests, rose about 3% Wednesday, snapping a two-day losing streak. Many investors are showing mixed emotions on where the stock could go, especially given that the CEO Martin Winterkorn announced today that he will be resigning. Volkswagen’s board is expected to appoint a successor on Friday.

And in airline news, Xi JinPing has approved a deal for China to buy 300 Boeing aircraft for $38 billion and build the first aircraft completion plant in that country. The massive Boeing order includes 190 of the 737 model aircraft and 50 wide-body planes for Chinese airlines, and 60 single-aisle planes for leasing companies. China Aviation Supplies Holding Company, ICBC Financial Leasing Co., Ltd., and China Development Bank Leasing with Boeing, will be purchasing the planes.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight presented a mixed picture with 3 of them gaining and 7 of them losing. Leading on the upside were the Financials (IYF) with +0.31%, while on the downside the equal weight ETF (RSP) surrendered -0.42%.

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Stocks Recover Large Early Deficit—But Still Finish Lower

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Renewed fears over China’s economic growth, a fresh rout in commodity markets and continued uncertainty over a Fed rate hike later this year triggered a heavy sell-off on Wall Street today. All three major benchmark indexes fell over 1.0% to close out the day, recovering from even larger deficits earlier in the day.

The agricultural chemicals company Mosaic (MOS) slid today after the company announced reduced production in its potash business due to unfavorable crop conditions.

Also hurting the Dow was news released about one of its influential components, Goldman Sachs (GS), which revealed that its CEO Lloyd Blankfein has a “highly curable” form of lymphoma. Goldman Sachs shares finished down 2%.

We heard from Groupon (GRPN) today. The technology up-and-comer announced that it is laying off 1,100 people, about 10% of its workforce, and is shutting down operations in seven countries, a sharp reversal of fortune at the height of its rebuffed multibillion-dollar buyout offer from Google. Groupon has decided to decide its own destiny and continue being a publicly traded company.

In positive news, shares of the oilfield services company Weatherford (WFT) saw substantial gains in its stock after it announced that it would not pursue previous plans for a public offering.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight succumbed to bearish forces today with the worst performer being the Global 100 (IOO), which gave back -1.73%. The best of the bunch turned out to be Healthcare (XLV) with a modest loss of -0.61%.

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Equities Rise, Fall And Stay Afloat

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks climbed Monday, the Nasdaq just barely, in a seesaw day as Wall Street shook off a two-day slump that was sparked by last week’s decision by the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates. Crude Oil gained slightly today as well to close at $46.69 a barrel.

In M&A news, Chipmaker Atmel (ATML) jumped after accepting a bid from Britain’s Dialog Semiconductor. Amtel’s business is the manufacturing and sale of electronics used in Internet of Things products, automobiles, computers and other consumer communications.

In other tech news, there was some controversy surrounding Apple (AAPL) today when the public found out that some 39 apps in the app store became infected over the weekend. The malicious code is called Xcode Ghost and came hidden in a fake version of Xcode, popular Apple software used to create applications. Most apple representatives are only calling it a minor setback as the company unveils its new line of iPhones. Some other rumors emerged today though regarding Apple potentially unveiling a smart car in 2019. The rumor is that Apple currently has a team of 600 working on the project.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to climb higher during this whip-saw day with the leader being the Financials (IYF) with +1.13%. On the losing side, Healthcare (XLV) stood out by surrendering -1.38%.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 09/18/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 381 ETFs, of which currently 28 (last week 24) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 6 ETFs (last week 8) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 36 (last week 32) above the line and 764 below it out of the 800 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.