Ulli... The ETF Bully

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/16/2015

Ulli Thursday, 16 July 2015, 6:52 PM ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 16, 2015

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +1.83% keeping us in the market with our established positions.

Equities Jump As Greece’s Fallout Appears Contained

Ulli Thursday, 16 July 2015, 4:25 PM Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Taking a cue from the European markets, U.S. equities joined the party and moved higher with Greek exit fears subsiding after approval of new austerity programs.

Giving an assist to the markets was ECB’s Mario Draghi who commented on their willingness to expand aid to some of the troubled banks. That was all it took, and U.S. equities never looked back.

What was not explained was that a Greek deal is far from being certain. Several of the European parliaments, including Germany’s, have to agree on letting their respective FinMins enter into a new agreement. Then they have to negotiate the actual detailed bailout deal with Greece, which has to be accepted again by the German Parliament, after which then the Greece parliament will have to give its stamp of approval, a process which might take some 6-8 weeks.

As you can see, we are nowhere near that euphoric point where we could declare the Greek situation as being resolved. But, today, these minor details did not matter to the markets; it was up, up and away.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight enjoyed the renewed upward momentum and closed higher led by Consumer Staples (XLP) with a gain of 1.03%. Lagging the group was the Mid-Cap Value ETF (IWS) which added a more modest 0.46%.

Violent Greek Protests Pull Down Equities

Ulli Wednesday, 15 July 2015, 3:54 PM Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Finally, the 4-day winning streak came to an end, but the losses were minor as a late day turnaround caused by violent Greek protests ahead of their parliamentary votes regarding the third bailout package pulled the rug out from initial upward momentum.

While we bounced successfully off the session’s lows, it remains to be seen if there is more fallout should the outcome of the Greece vote displease the masses.

Earlier in the day, China reported a GDP of 7% vs expectations of 6.9%, which was questioned by various media outlets. Of course, China would never fudge those numbers, but even the Shanghai index, based on its loss of over 3% for the day, seems to have a different view.

It was a tug-of-war today between bulls and bears with every piece of news being dissected carefully. Fed chief Yellen had to endure some tough questioning but is still in support of raising interest rates somewhat later on this year.

8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight eked out small gains during this see-saw session. On the upside, Financials (IYF) led with +0.59%, while the loser of the day was the Mid-Cap Value ETF (IWS), which gave back -0.48%.

Squeezing Out Another Day Of Gains

Ulli Tuesday, 14 July 2015, 3:43 PM Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Equities managed to inch higher for the 4^th day in a row and added to their recent gains. From last Wednesday’s low for then month, the S&P has managed to rally over 3%, which was strictly based on hope for a resolution in Greece.

Today’s downer was the disappointing June retail sales number at -0.3% but, this is nowadays a positive for the market as it may change the Fed’s interest rate hike, which has been on the front burner for quite some time now and is maybe scheduled for September.

Right now, all eyes are on Wednesday’s session where fireworks in form of a variety of events are on the menu. Starting with China’s GDP announcement, we’ll move to Fed chief Yellen’s testimony about the economic outlook, which maybe interrupted by the decision of the Greek parliament as to whether the new and extremely stringent reform measures negotiated last weekend will be accepted or not.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight again joined the upward momentum and added to the gains of the past 3 days. Healthcare (XLV) took to billing with +1.05%, while Consumer Discretionaries (XLY), yesterday’s winner, managed a meager +0.16%.

Solid Gains For 3rd Straight Day

Ulli Monday, 13 July 2015, 4:05 PM Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The bulls had their way as the rally continued for the third straight day with the S&P 500 reclaiming the 2,100 level. The driver was a new agreement, where Greece ended up in total capitulation by giving up much sovereignity in turn for a third bailout program.

This type of deal came as a total surprise but before in can be finalized it must be approved by the national parliaments, which is expected to happen by the end of the week. Optimism persists that Greece will accept all conditions and thereby remain in the Eurozone. As a consequence, the markets are back in “risk on” mode.

Domestically, earnings will be on the menu for the next few weeks, and so far there have been no surprise announcements that companies may disappoint. If that holds, equities could be finding more support.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight participated in this rally and closed solidly higher. The leader for the day was Consumer Discretionaries (XLY), which gained 1.44%. On the laggard side, but still gainging nicely, was the Dividend ETF (DVY), which captured 0.69%.