One Man’s Opinion: Will The S&P 500 Provide High Single-Digit To Low Double-Digit Returns In 2016?

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Man

The Central Bank continues to dominate the economy of not just the US but globally, said Eric Wiegand, portfolio manager at US Bank. (There has been) a break from the trajectory that was witnessed previously; at least the US has the certainty of one rate-hike behind it.

The debate over the number of increases as the economy moves through 2016 is still out there, and the overall impact on currencies in the level of growth that the economy is likely to see in 2016 is still a question mark, he observed.

Asked if investors should focus on value or growth stocks, Eric said there should be an appropriate mix of the two, to be candid. For US Bank, there are certain sectors that offer better opportunities than others including technology, healthcare – a sector for all seasons, select consumer discretionary stocks, financials as well as industrials, he noted.

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New ETFs On The Block: SPDR S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD)

Ulli Dividend ETFs Contact

CandleStickChartState Street Global Advisors (SSgA), a unit of State Street and the asset manager behind the iconic SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), recently launched an equity fund dedicated to tracking the performance of the biggest dividend paying stocks listed in the US.

The newly minted SPDR S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD) targets the top dividend payers in the S&P 500 benchmark and aims to reflect the performance of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index, a gauge consisting of the top 80 dividend yield securities from the S&P 500 Index.

Needless to say, by its very nature, the new fund is comprised of large-cap securities from the US with a weighted-average market cap exceeding $40 billion. To begin with, the underlying index calculates the dividend yields for all the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. To that end, latest dividend payouts, excluding any special/one-time payments, are recorded and are multiplied by the frequency of payouts made in year. The dividend yield is calculated next by dividing annualized dividends by the firm’s current stock price.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 12/24/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, December 24, 2015

TOC 111915

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 11/13/2015

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in above chart) has recently crawled above its long term trend line (red) and finally generated a new “Buy” signal effective 11/3/15. The market subsequently dropped, and we exited again on 11/13/15. As of today, the TTI remains below its trend line by -0.38%, which means we are in cash on the sidelines.

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Holiday Posting Schedule

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

With today’s shortened uneventful market session, there won’t be a commentary. I will publish Thursday’s StatSheet sometime this coming Saturday along with the “New ETF’s on the Block” series. Sunday will feature the usual “One Man’s Opinion” piece, and Monday morning I will resume with “ETFs on the Cutline.”

In the meantime, I wish you a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.

Ulli…

Gaining For The Third Day On A Rebound In Oil

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Again, jumping oil prices were the driving force behind today’s rally as the indexes managed to extend gains for the third day in a row almost wiping out the “post interest rate” losses of last week.

Global crude prices soared after inventory dropped an unexpected 5.9 million barrels last week reviving hope that the worst of this year’s oil debacle may be behind us, although I would not hold my breath. All 10 S&P sectors closed in the green again. Volume was low, and I would expect the same for tomorrow’s abbreviated session.

For the second day in a row, all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight rallied and closed on the plus side with the leader being the Mid-Cap Value ETF (IWS) at +1.90% while Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged with +0.73%.

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Crude Oil Bounces And Pushes Indexes Higher

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Finally, crude oil showed some signs of life by bouncing off its multi-year lows and gaining 1% for the day. The effect on the major indexes was a positive one as they got pulled higher along with all 10 S&P sectors despite the plunge in existing home sales (-10.5%).

Still, extreme December volatility pushed the major indexes around with the Dow posting its 14th 100 point move in the last 16 trading days. With volume slowing down as Christmas approaches, I would expect more of the same but will not read too much into any extreme market swings until after the New Year.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to close in the green with Consumer Staples (XLP) leading the pack at +1.30%. Lagging behind was Healthcare (XLV) with +0.67%.

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