1. Moving the market

The markets kicked off the day with a bang, rallying right out of the gate after this morning’s jobs report came in stronger than expected—quite the turnaround from yesterday’s weak ADP numbers.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, beating forecasts of 110,000. On top of that, May’s numbers were revised upward to 144,000. The unemployment rate also dipped to 4.1%, defying expectations of a rise to 4.3%.

That solid labor data sent bond yields jumping and cooled hopes for a rate cut anytime soon. Right now, futures traders are putting the odds at about 93% that the Fed will keep rates steady at their next meeting.

Adding to the mix, the approval of the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” along with strong factory orders and upbeat service sector data, is painting a picture of an economy that’s still expanding. Translation? Rate cuts are likely off the table for now.

Still, traders seemed to like what they saw. The major indexes posted strong gains for this holiday-shortened week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closing at record highs—helped along by a weeklong short squeeze.

Bond yields surged, the dollar slipped a bit, and gold managed to close higher for the week despite a pullback today. Precious metals overall are still riding a wave of bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin made a run at its all-time high but couldn’t quite stick the landing, fading into the close.

So, with seasonals pointing to more upside, the big question is: Will stocks keep climbing as we head deeper into summer?

Happy 4^th of July!

1. Moving the market

The first trading day of July came in with mixed vibes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stumbled out of the gate, while the Dow decided to do its own thing and posted some early gains.

Tesla took a 4% hit after former President Trump stirred the pot on social media, suggesting that DOGE should investigate the government subsidies Elon Musk’s companies have received. This seemed like a clapback after Musk called Trump’s latest “big, beautiful bill” completely insane and destructive. So yeah, the drama continues.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a European banking forum in Portugal, saying the Fed probably would’ve cut rates again by now—if it weren’t for those pesky tariffs. He didn’t offer any timeline, just the usual “we’ll see what the data says” line. Not exactly the clarity markets were hoping for.

The weakness in the S&P and Nasdaq stuck around through the close, and Trump’s comment about not extending the tariff pause past July 9th didn’t help. Even a big short-squeeze couldn’t lift the Mag7 tech giants, though it did give the broader market a bit of a boost.

Bond yields climbed, rate cut hopes dipped, and both hard and soft economic data came in weak. The dollar had a wild ride but ended flat. Gold bounced back nicely, reclaiming its 50-day moving average after yesterday’s quarter-end drop. Bitcoin slipped alongside tech but found support around $106K.

So, with a shaky start to July, the big question is: Will the market stick to its usual seasonal script and rally over the next couple of weeks—or is this year going to break the pattern?

1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked off the last day of June on a positive note, riding the wave of last week’s bullish momentum.

That upward push got an extra boost when Canada backed off its digital services tax to smooth over trade talks with the U.S.—a quick reversal after President Trump abruptly ended discussions just three days earlier. So, that mini trade war? It lasted all of 72 hours.

Investors are still waiting to see if any real trade deals materialize before the July 9 deadline, when Trump’s 90-day tariff pause runs out. Secretary Bessent hinted that while some countries are negotiating “in good faith,” the U.S. won’t hesitate to snap back to earlier tariff levels if talks stall. No pressure, right?

Overall, June turned into a recovery month. Stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, and crude oil all moved higher, while the dollar and U.S. macro data slipped—ironically, that weaker data helped fuel hopes for rate cuts, which gave stocks another lift.

For the year so far, the Nasdaq leads the pack with a +7.6% gain, followed by the S&P 500. Small Caps and Transport stocks didn’t fare as well. But gold? It’s still the top performer, outshining all major equity indexes by a wide margin (+25.9%)

Bond yields wrapped up the quarter mixed, and the dollar just had its worst quarter since late 2022. Gold, after a strong start to the year, has been treading water for the past two months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin had a stellar quarter, rising every month—even if June’s gains were more modest, it still notched a record monthly close.

So, with June in the books and momentum still alive… will the bulls keep charging, or are the bears just catching their breath?