- Moving the market
The first trading day of July came in with mixed vibes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stumbled out of the gate, while the Dow decided to do its own thing and posted some early gains.
Tesla took a 4% hit after former President Trump stirred the pot on social media, suggesting that DOGE should investigate the government subsidies Elon Musk’s companies have received. This seemed like a clapback after Musk called Trump’s latest “big, beautiful bill” completely insane and destructive. So yeah, the drama continues.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a European banking forum in Portugal, saying the Fed probably would’ve cut rates again by now—if it weren’t for those pesky tariffs. He didn’t offer any timeline, just the usual “we’ll see what the data says” line. Not exactly the clarity markets were hoping for.
The weakness in the S&P and Nasdaq stuck around through the close, and Trump’s comment about not extending the tariff pause past July 9th didn’t help. Even a big short-squeeze couldn’t lift the Mag7 tech giants, though it did give the broader market a bit of a boost.
Bond yields climbed, rate cut hopes dipped, and both hard and soft economic data came in weak. The dollar had a wild ride but ended flat. Gold bounced back nicely, reclaiming its 50-day moving average after yesterday’s quarter-end drop. Bitcoin slipped alongside tech but found support around $106K.
So, with a shaky start to July, the big question is: Will the market stick to its usual seasonal script and rally over the next couple of weeks—or is this year going to break the pattern?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The broader market had a solid day, pushing higher overall—even though tech stocks were kind of stuck in neutral, wobbling around without much direction.
The Dow put in a strong performance, and our TTIs moved up right alongside it. The domestic TTI, in particular, made a noticeable leap, digging even deeper into bullish territory.
This is how we closed 07/01/2025:
Domestic TTI: +4.75% above its M/A (prior close +3.53%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.90% above its M/A (prior close +8.63%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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