Stocks Stay Resilient Despite Soft Data And Headline Chaos

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq got off to a strong start after reports that negotiators had reached a deal to extend the Iran ceasefire—but traders never fully let their guard down.

Stocks pushed to session highs once news broke that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a 60-day memorandum to keep the ceasefire in place and continue talks around Iran’s nuclear program.

That said, there’s still some uncertainty hanging over things, as President Trump hasn’t officially signed off on the deal yet.

On the macro side, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—PCE—came in a bit cooler than expected. Prices rose 0.4% in April (below the 0.5% forecast), while the annual rate held steady at 3.8%.

That softer monthly number gave markets a little hope that inflation pressures might finally be easing, even if we’re still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

By the close, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to hang on to their gains, even with the constant “peace-on, peace-off” headlines, weakening macro data, and fading rate-cut expectations.

Under the surface, small caps and the Nasdaq led the way. Small caps, in particular, got a boost from heavily shorted names, which have now ripped about 17% over the past seven sessions.

Falling bond yields also helped, with the 30-year slipping back below 5%.

That drop in yields weighed on the dollar and gave a lift to precious metals, with gold climbing back above $4,500. Bitcoin, however, went the other way—dropping to around $72K as ETF outflows pressured prices.

What’s interesting is that markets held up surprisingly well despite a string of weak economic data, including soft PCE, disappointing GDP, falling capital goods orders, and a drop in home sales.

So, my question is: how long can stocks keep shrugging off bad news before it finally starts to matter?

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Optimism Vs. Caution: Markets Caught In The Middle

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The Dow came out of the gate strong today, jumping nearly 300 points and even tagging a fresh record high early on.

A big help came from falling oil prices—down almost 5%—and a solid bounce in Procter & Gamble, which climbed more than 3% and helped lift the index.

Micron kept its momentum going too. After its massive 19% surge yesterday, that pushed it past the $1 trillion mark, the stock added another 4% today. That rally was fueled by a bullish UBS call suggesting Micron could have a lot more upside, thanks to long-term deals tied to the ongoing AI boom.

Lately, traders seem to be gravitating toward memory chip names as their preferred way to play AI.

On the macro front, traders found some encouragement in comments from President Trump, who said talks with Iran to end the conflict were “proceeding nicely.” That optimism, combined with a strong earnings season, has helped drive stocks higher this month.

That said, not everyone is convinced there’s much gas left in the tank. One strategist is calling for only a modest move higher in the S&P 500—around 2% by year-end—citing concerns over rising bond yields and inflation expectations.

Others are more optimistic, pointing to continued earnings strength and even floating targets as high as 8,000 for the index.

By the close, most of the early excitement had faded. The major indexes finished mostly flat, though the Dow did manage to hold on to a modest gain.

Bond yields ended little changed after initially rising, as reports suggested Iran peace talks might not be going as smoothly as hoped.

Elsewhere, the dollar spiked, gold briefly lost the $4,500 level before bouncing off $4,400, and Bitcoin extended its recent slide.

All in all, uncertainty was the main theme of the day, with mixed signals and ongoing geopolitical chatter leaving markets searching for a clear sense of direction.

So, the question is—are we just pausing before the next leg higher, or starting to run out of steam?

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Stocks Rally On Deal Hopes, But Is The Good News Already Priced In?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks kicked things off on a strong note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moving higher early, powered once again by tech.

A big part of the optimism seemed tied to growing expectations that the U.S. and Iran could be inching toward some kind of deal to wind down tensions.

One of the big winners was Micron, which surged a massive 15% after analysts turned increasingly bullish. UBS even floated the idea of more than 100% upside, pointing to long-term agreements as a key driver. Not bad for a stock that started last week on shaky ground during the broader sell-off in memory chip names.

On the geopolitical front, things remain a bit of a mixed signal. President Trump said talks with Iran are “proceeding nicely,” but also made it clear the U.S. is ready to take action if things fall apart.

At the same time, the U.S. confirmed it carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran, targeting missile sites and boats involved in mine activity—though officials emphasized restraint amid the ongoing ceasefire.

Right now, markets seem to be leaning toward the idea that a détente could be announced in the coming days. That raises the big question: how much of this good news is already baked into prices?

By the close, it was a risk-on vibe. Small caps and the Nasdaq led the charge, while the Dow lagged.

Lower rate-hike expectations helped push bond yields down, the dollar bounced a bit, and commodities were mixed—gold gave back some of yesterday’s gains. Bitcoin had a wild ride too, briefly touching $78K before sliding back toward $75.5K.

The underlying hope is that progress on the U.S.-Iran front could ease energy prices, cool inflation expectations, and keep pressure off yields—but for now, traders seem to be cautiously optimistic.

So, I am pondering: Are markets getting ahead of themselves, or is there still more upside if a deal actually comes through?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 05/22/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (199vs. 218current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For May 22, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

STOCKS KEEP CLIMBING DESPITE GROWING CROSSCURRENTS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks finished higher, with broad gains across the board as Treasury yields finally eased a bit. That pullback in rates helped steady the market and set Wall Street up for a solid winning week—despite all the volatility along the way.

A big part of the market’s resilience still comes down to strong Q1 earnings, with a little help from cooling bond yields.

Earlier in the week, though, those same yields were causing plenty of headaches. The 30-year Treasury briefly hit its highest level since before the financial crisis, while the 10-year climbed to a more than one-year high.

Much of that move was driven by worries that a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict could keep oil prices elevated and inflation sticky.

By Friday, oil had backed off its highs and traded mostly flat, as traders held out hope that tensions could eventually ease. Even with all the back-and-forth headlines, the major indexes are closing the week with solid gains.

Looking at the bigger picture, it was an interesting mix: stocks notched their eighth straight weekly gain, oil moved lower overall, and short-term yields climbed. At the same time, consumer sentiment sank to record lows, while the dollar and gold ended the week roughly unchanged. Copper, on the other hand, had a strong showing.

Under the surface, leadership told its own story. The Dow and Small Caps led the way, with the latter getting an extra boost from a three-day short squeeze. Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 lagged noticeably, underperforming the broader S&P 493.

Bitcoin had a choppy week, bouncing around the $77K level, but held up fairly well considering ongoing ETF outflows.

So, even with stocks continuing to grind higher, there’s a bit of a tug-of-war building between rising yields, softening consumer sentiment, and shifting oil prices.

The big question is: which of these forces ends up driving the next major move in the market?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/21/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, May 21, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.98% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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