Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/09/2021

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 9, 2021

Methodology/Use of this StatSheet:

1. From the universe of over 1,800 ETFs, I have selected only those with a trading volume of over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so that liquidity and a small bid/ask spread are assured.

2. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Buy or Sell decisions for Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2), are made based on the respective TTI and its position either above or below its long-term M/A (Moving Average). A crossing of the trend line from below accompanied by some staying power above constitutes a “Buy” signal. Conversely, a clear break below the line constitutes a “Sell” signal. Additionally, I use an 8% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories to control downside risk.

3. All other investment arenas do not have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of the individual ETF relative to its own respective trend line (%M/A). That’s why those signals are referred to as a “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF crosses its own trendline to the upside, a “Buy” signal is generated. Since these areas tend to be more volatile, I recommend a wider trailing sell stop of 8%-10% depending on your risk tolerance.

If you are unfamiliar with some of the terminology, please see Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.     

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY — since 07/22/2020

Click on chart to enlarge

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart) has now rallied above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.45% and remains in “BUY” mode as posted.

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Hunting For Clarity

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the markets

It was a third day in a row of red numbers for the Dow and S&P 500 with the indicators meandering and looking for a base to support the bullish theme. While the three major indexes bounced off the lows for the day, it was not enough to instill confidence in the bears returning the baton back to the bulls.

The economic outlook was foremost on traders’ minds, but since we are in September, known to be one of the most volatile months of the year, more bumpiness may be in the cards. Questionable growth prospects combined with Fed policy, as well as the legislative agendas (cough debt ceiling, cough), may keep buyers in check.

Adding to that the insanity, as ZeroHege called it, that there are now a record 2.2 million more job openings than unemployed workers, makes you scratch your head wondering what kind of an upside-down world we are living in.

Bonds did well, with yields dropping, as the 10-year auction went better than expected with their yield moving back to unchanged for the week.

That should have given Gold an assist, but it was prevented by the US Dollar continuing to surge mid-session but giving up some of its gains at the close.

In the end, the losses for the major indexes were minor, but it remains unclear whether there is more downside to come. Your guess is as good as mine.

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Slipping And Sliding

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the markets

The same old anxieties were moved to the front burner again, namely what the delta variant’s impact might be on the economic reopening. At least that’s the headline news, but looking under the hood for the real reason, it appears to me the fact that 7 million people lost their extra unemployment benefits over the weekend might be closer to the truth.

Not helping the markets, and putting traders in a sour mood, was Goldman Sachs’ (GS) economic outlook downgrade, in which they reduced their annual growth estimate for 2021 to 5.7% from 6.5% and below the consensus of 6.2%. As a side note, GS mentioned that fading fiscal stimulus might be a headwind as well.

As a result, red numbers prevailed across the board with bonds dropping as yields rose, and the major indexes slumping, except for the Nasdaq, which eked out a small gain. The US Dollar ripped and had its best day in 3 weeks, as the rest of the markets dipped.

The dollars surge proved to be a problem for gold, which got hammered and lost its $1,800 level again.  

I agree with ZeroHedge’s comment that “for over a year, US financial conditions have done nothing but get easier and easier and actual US economic data has done nothing but get worse and worse than expectations.”

That’s why I believe that the real economy will now show up and must prove itself, unless “stimmy checks” of gigantic proportions are enacted again.

Just food for thought.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 09/03/2021

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below, please find the latest High-Volume ETF Cutline report, which shows how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39-week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs are positioned.

This report covers the HV ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 312 High Volume ETFs, defined as those with an average daily volume of more than $5 million, of which currently 264 (last week 260) are hovering in bullish territory. The yellow line separates those ETFs that are positioned above their trend line (%M/A) from those that have dropped below it.

Take a look:                                                                   

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms. If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.      

ETF Tracker Newsletter For September 3, 2021

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

EKING OUT ANOTHER WIN

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the markets

All eyes were focused on today’s jobs report, which turned out to be a huge disappointment with only 235k jobs being added during August, a far cry from the expected 725k. As Zero Hedge explained, this number was not only a huge drop to last month’s upward revised 1.053 million but was the weakest print since January.  

The markets took it in stride, with traders most likely thinking that the immediate danger of the Fed’s taper talk may have been put on the back burner.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasized the need for more strong jobs data before the central bank would start to unwind its massive bond-buying program, and the disappointing report could change expectations about when the Fed will start its tapering process.

As a result, the major indexes climbed out of an early hole led by the Nasdaq, which closed moderately in the green, while the Dow and S&P 500 ended the session with tiny losses.

The dismal payroll report caused the US Dollar to collapse with Gold heading the other way by adding a solid +1.01% gain. A lack of confidence in the Central Bank seems to have been the main driver for the precious metal, which rallied in the face of spiking bond yields with 10-year closing above 1.32%.  

The US economic surprise data dropped to its worst point since the plunge in March of 2020, as Bloomberg demonstrates here. This adds more power to my argument that the alleged economic recovery was merely a function of the magnitude and frequency of the “stimmie” checks and not based on organic economic fundamental growth.

In the end, none of it mattered, as the S&P 500 closed with another winning weak, though with only a small gain, but a win is a win.  

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/02/2021

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 2, 2021

Methodology/Use of this StatSheet:

1. From the universe of over 1,800 ETFs, I have selected only those with a trading volume of over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so that liquidity and a small bid/ask spread are assured.

2. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Buy or Sell decisions for Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2), are made based on the respective TTI and its position either above or below its long-term M/A (Moving Average). A crossing of the trend line from below accompanied by some staying power above constitutes a “Buy” signal. Conversely, a clear break below the line constitutes a “Sell” signal. Additionally, I use an 8% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories to control downside risk.

3. All other investment arenas do not have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of the individual ETF relative to its own respective trend line (%M/A). That’s why those signals are referred to as a “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF crosses its own trendline to the upside, a “Buy” signal is generated. Since these areas tend to be more volatile, I recommend a wider trailing sell stop of 8%-10% depending on your risk tolerance.

If you are unfamiliar with some of the terminology, please see Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.     

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY — since 07/22/2020

Click on chart to enlarge

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart) has now rallied above its long-term trend line (red) by +10.72% and remains in “BUY” mode as posted.

Read More