- Moving the market
After an early stumble, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to claw their way back above unchanged, as traders continued to hang onto the hope that some kind of deal between the U.S. and Iran might eventually emerge.
It wasn’t exactly conviction buying — more like cautious optimism refusing to die.
Technology stocks helped keep the broader market afloat. Software names led the way, with Oracle jumping 9% and Palantir adding 4%. Not every corner of the market played along, though.
Goldman Sachs was a clear laggard and weighed on the financials during the session.
The backdrop remains tense. President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after weekend peace talks between the U.S. and Iran ended without an agreement.
The blockade — covering all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports — went into effect Monday. U.S. Central Command emphasized that vessels traveling to non‑Iranian ports would not be blocked, but the message was loud and clear.
Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad without a deal, citing Iran’s refusal to halt its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Beyond that, the two sides appear far apart on several fronts, with Iran demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, and the release of frozen assets.
In short, traders were forced back to the drawing board, reassessing what stocks are really worth now that it’s becoming clear this Middle East conflict won’t be resolved anytime soon.
Then came the pivot. Equities caught a bid after Trump said Iran wants to “work a deal.” That single comment was enough to push the major indexes to session highs and quickly revive bullish sentiment.
Weak existing home sales data was brushed aside as markets chose to focus on geopolitics instead.
By the close, WTI crude had round‑tripped the day, slipping back to unchanged after spiking nearly 9% at the Sunday night open and falling back below $100.
Bond yields jumped and then faded, ending lower on the day. The dollar followed suit, which helped gold recover from an ugly open to finish near unchanged. Bitcoin stayed firm, rallying back toward its key resistance level around $73,000.
For now, traders seem to agree with the prevailing mindset: if you liked these assets before the conflict, you might like them even more now.
The big question is — how long can optimism hold when the headlines keep getting heavier?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The session started a bit sloppy, but that early weakness disappeared in a hurry once President Trump said the words traders were hoping to hear: Iran wants to “work a deal.”
That was all it took for the bulls to jump in with both feet, and the rally stayed strong for the rest of the day.
Our TTIs hopped on board too — both advanced nicely, but the domestic one really outperformed, gaining about three times as much as the international TTI.
This is how we closed 04/13/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.37% above its M/A (prior close +3.22%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.41% above its M/A (prior close +7.04%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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