[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The Dow kept the momentum going this morning, pushing to a fresh record high, while the Nasdaq headed the opposite way as traders rotated out of chip stocks and into more traditional, non-tech names.

Leading the charge for the Dow was UnitedHealth, which jumped 5.8%. JPMorgan Chase and Walmart also helped lift the index, gaining 2.2% and 1.6%. Outside the Dow, “old economy” names like Costco and Eli Lilly had a strong showing too, climbing 2% and 4.6%.

The shift seemed to start with a sharp sell-off in Broadcom, which dropped 14% after missing fiscal second-quarter revenue expectations. That move spilled over into the broader AI space, prompting traders to dial back exposure. CrowdStrike added to the pressure, falling 10% after issuing underwhelming revenue guidance.

All of this came on the heels of a rough session yesterday, with markets already on edge due to escalating tensions in the Middle East following increased clashes between the U.S. and Iran.

By the close, the Nasdaq managed to claw its way back to around flat, but still notched its biggest relative underperformance versus the Dow in 17 months—a pretty clear sign that money is shifting around under the surface.

On the macro side, falling oil prices, easing bond yields, and a softer dollar gave gold some breathing room, helping it rebound moderately.

At the same time, rising jobless claims and a spike in announced job cuts added a layer of concern ahead of tomorrow’s payroll report, highlighting the growing disconnect between “soft” survey data and more reality-based “hard” numbers.

Interestingly, while the Magnificent 7 outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 today, they’re still lagging significantly on the week.

Bond yields continued to drift lower, with the 30-year pulling back after testing 5% yesterday, dragging the dollar down with it. Gold briefly surged back above $4,500, while Bitcoin dipped near $61K before bouncing slightly.

One analyst pointed out that positioning between risk-on and risk-off assets is now at its most extreme since 2019—which raises a big question: how long can this balancing act last before something gives?

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Stocks came under pressure right out of the gate as rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields rattled investors.

The concern? Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran could keep inflation elevated for longer than expected. Oil moved higher after both countries launched new strikes, with Kuwait reporting overnight that its air defense systems were intercepting “hostile targets.”

Adding to the drag, AI-related names—recent market darlings—took a breather. Nvidia slipped more than 2%, while Dell and Oracle dropped about 5.5%. Microsoft wasn’t spared either, losing around 2%. After such a strong run fueled by optimism and heavy investment in the AI cycle, a pause here isn’t all that surprising.

In fact, the timing makes sense. We’re moving past earnings season, which has been a major tailwind, so a bit of cooling off—or even some added volatility—feels natural as we head into the quieter summer months.

On the economic front, things are a bit mixed. Strong ADP jobs data and solid Services PMI pushed the U.S. Macro Surprise Index to its highest level since September 2023.

Normally that would lift sentiment, but instead it seemed to confuse traders. Yesterday’s bullish momentum quickly gave way to today’s reality of rising oil prices and higher bond yields.

The S&P 500’s 9-day winning streak came to an end, with all major indexes closing lower. Small caps led the decline, while the S&P held up relatively well. The “Mag 7” continues to struggle this week, significantly underperforming the broader S&P 493.

Elsewhere, bond yields spiked, and the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on gold, which slipped again. Bitcoin didn’t offer much refuge either, with sellers pushing it down toward key support levels as ETF outflows continue.

What we’re seeing looks like an extreme positioning shift—money chasing AI stocks while flowing out of gold and crypto, fueling pockets of speculation. The big question is: how long can that imbalance last before something gives?

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Oil prices jumped about 8%, but the broader market didn’t seem too rattled—at least at first. The major indexes hovered near flat in early trading, with Nvidia helping to lift tech after rolling out a new PC chip.

A lot of that tension is tied to escalating headlines out of the Middle East. Iranian state media said negotiations with the U.S. have stalled, and there were even threats to shut down the Strait of Hormuz following Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

At the same time, the situation on the ground kept intensifying, with U.S. forces reportedly intercepting Iranian missiles aimed at bases in Kuwait overnight.

Back in the market, Nvidia gave stocks a bit of a tailwind, climbing more than 3%. That momentum spilled over into PC-related names like Dell and HP, while Intel went the other way, dropping over 4% as competitive pressure showed up again.

By the afternoon, things got a lot choppier. Headlines were flying, bond yields and the dollar moved higher, and talk surfaced that U.S.–Iran negotiations might actually be back on.

Markets reacted in real time, with asset prices swinging and, interestingly, the mega-cap “Mag 7” names fading late in the session to finish roughly in line with the rest of the S&P 500.

In other corners, gold extended its pullback from Friday but managed to hold near the $4,500 level, while Bitcoin slid toward $70K—its lowest point since early April.

All in all, it was another mixed, headline-driven session. Traders stayed nimble, reacting quickly to shifting oil and geopolitical news, and the major indexes still managed to squeeze out a modest gain by the close.

The big question now—how long can the market keep brushing off this kind of uncertainty?