- Moving the market
Despite fresh strikes on Iran and higher oil prices, stocks shrugged off geopolitical concerns and moved higher right from the opening bell.
Traders appeared more focused on a growing list of positive corporate earnings reports, with chipmakers and technology stocks leading the charge.
Earnings season continues to get off to a strong start. Industrial giant 3M surged more than 9% after delivering better-than-expected second-quarter results. General Motors also impressed investors, beating both revenue and earnings estimates and sending its shares up 3%.
So far, corporate America is largely clearing Wall Street’s hurdle. Of the roughly 66 S&P 500 companies that have reported, nearly 88% have exceeded earnings expectations. Still, the next couple of weeks could prove pivotal.
With expectations running high, traders are rewarding companies that deliver and quickly punishing those that fall short.
Today’s rally came on the heels of a weaker session driven by concerns over escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Military activity continued overnight, with both sides remaining engaged in retaliatory actions across the region, keeping geopolitical risks firmly on investors’ radar.
Even so, stocks managed to post solid gains, helped in part by the biggest short squeeze in more than a month.
Equities advanced despite rising bond yields and a stronger dollar, two factors that would normally create headwinds for risk assets.
The metals market also marched to its own beat. Gold climbed sharply to as high as $4,080, while silver surged more than 4%. Bitcoin joined the move higher, briefly approaching $67,000 before giving back a portion of its gains later in the day.
One notable shift was the return of aggressive buying in semiconductors and technology stocks.
The recent trend of investors broadening exposure into other sectors took a back seat as money flowed back into some of the market’s favorite growth names.
With earnings season heating up and geopolitical tensions still simmering in the background, which theme will have the bigger impact on markets over the next few weeks: corporate profits or global events?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
It was a good day for the bulls, with major indexes, metals, and Bitcoin all posting solid gains.
Our TTIs participated in the advance, but the international TTI came out ahead of the domestic version, as much of the day’s momentum was driven by strength in tech stocks.
This is how we closed 07/21/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.42% above its M/A (prior close +7.25%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.35% above its M/A (prior close +5.22%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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