[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks spent most of the day on the defensive as traders worked through another round of earnings surprises.
The biggest headline came from Alphabet, which suffered its worst one-day decline on record after falling short of expectations, dragging the Nasdaq down more than 1% and reminding investors that even tech giants aren’t immune to high expectations.
Caterpillar added to the cautious tone. Despite posting solid earnings, a slight miss in construction equipment sales was enough to send shares sharply lower.
Microsoft’s results were good on the surface, but investors seemed more interested in finding reasons to sell than reasons to celebrate, especially as questions around the AI trade continue to linger.
Meanwhile, the Fed pressed the pause button on rates and signaled it’s still waiting for more data before making its next move.
Bond yields, the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin all took traders on a bit of a rollercoaster ride, only to finish not far from where they started. Sometimes the market’s version of cardio is running in circles.
The message from today’s action was pretty clear: uncertainty remains high, volatility isn’t ready to leave the party, and traders are still searching for the next catalyst.
The question is, are we seeing a healthy reset in expectations, or just the beginning of a more challenging stretch for markets?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
With Alphabet and Microsoft failing to clear Wall Street’s lofty earnings bar, the major indexes opened on the back foot.
Tech took the brunt of the selling, with the Nasdaq leading the retreat as investors rediscovered that expectations matter just as much as results.
The metals complex didn’t escape the risk-off mood either, but our TTIs had other plans.
Both managed to swim against the current, with the Domestic TTI especially impressive, surging at nearly twice the pace of its international counterpart.
Apparently, while the market was handing out red ink, our TTIs were busy writing their own script.
This is how we closed 10/29/2026:
Domestic TTI: +6.48% above its M/A (prior close +5.22%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.19% above its M/A (prior close +3.62%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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