- Moving the market
The S&P 500 spent most of the session treading water as rising oil prices kept buyers cautious ahead of another packed day of corporate earnings reports.
Oil moved higher after the 11th consecutive round of U.S. strikes against Iran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that Iran is “not serious about talks.”
He also reiterated that American forces would continue protecting shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies.
Traders remain focused on crude oil because sustained higher energy prices can eventually filter through to consumer goods and services, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep inflation under control.
That, in turn, has revived concerns that another rate hike could be back on the table as early as July.
Meanwhile, earnings season remains front and center. Wall Street is looking for fresh clues about AI spending, cloud-computing demand, corporate technology budgets, and management outlooks for the second half of the year.
A key question is whether the strong demand for AI infrastructure and software can continue to support the lofty valuations seen across much of the technology sector.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil to six-week highs, while bond yields jumped as rate-hike concerns resurfaced.
The combination weighed on equities, with Small Caps taking the biggest hit as yesterday’s short-squeeze rally was completely erased. The Nasdaq also finished lower, while the Dow and S&P 500 managed to end the day essentially unchanged.
Elsewhere, the dollar traded sideways, gold climbed back above the $4,150 level intraday, and Bitcoin pulled back modestly below $66,000.
So, what’s next?
One thing seems increasingly likely: higher volatility. As highlighted by ZeroHedge, historical patterns suggest the VIX may be preparing for a notable move higher.
Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen, but with rising geopolitical tensions, renewed rate-hike fears, and earnings season in full swing, traders may want to buckle up for a bumpier ride ahead.
Will the market once again shrug off these growing concerns, or is volatility finally ready to make a sustained comeback?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
It was a classic whipsaw day for stocks, with the Dow and S&P 500 zigzagging without much direction.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq never managed to climb above its unchanged line throughout the session.
Gold and silver kept their upward momentum going, while bitcoin eased back a bit.
Our TTIs were mixed, as the international indicator notched a modest gain, and the domestic indicator ended the day little changed.
This is how we closed 07/22/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.39% above its M/A (prior close +7.42%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.67% above its M/A (prior close +6.35%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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