[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped after hitting fresh record highs earlier in the session, but they recovered nicely by the close.

Both indexes are on track for a strong week, with the S&P up about 3% and the Nasdaq gaining more than 4%, while the Dow is up around 1%.

Milestones were hit on Wednesday: The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time ever, and the Nasdaq closed above 24,000 for the first time.

The lift came after President Trump said the Iran war is “very close to over” and announced upcoming talks between Israel and Lebanon. Halting attacks on Lebanon has been a key condition for broader Iran negotiations.

Stocks have now fully recovered all losses since the war began in late February.

We’re basically back to where we were valuation-wise and sentiment-wise before the conflict, but for the rally to keep going, we’ll likely need to see it broaden out beyond just the Nasdaq and big tech.

Headlines continue to drive direction. ZeroHedge summed up the key ones today as:

GOOD: Trump says talks with Iran are looking very promising — less pain

BAD: Gulf and European officials think a deal could take 6 months — more pain

UGLY: Trump warns that if no deal, fighting will resume — serious pain

Bond yields rose, the most-shorted stocks continued to get squeezed, and the dollar went nowhere.

Gold stayed flat around $4,800, while Bitcoin tested $73K before bouncing back toward $75K.

Relentless hope for a negotiated settlement with Iran, combined with resilient economic data, has kept the rally alive — at least for now.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq got off to a strong start, with the S&P moving to a new all-time intraday high as traders stayed hopeful that a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war could materialize soon.

Broadcom was one of the standout performers, rising 3% after Meta extended its partnership to deploy custom chips using Broadcom’s technology.

This followed a very strong prior session — the S&P 500 has now surpassed its previous all-time high of 7,002.28 from January 28, marking its ninth positive session out of the last ten.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also posted its 10th straight gain and hit a fresh record high.

President Trump added to the optimistic mood, saying “We’ve been called by the other side — they’d like to make a deal very badly,” and later telling Fox Business that the war is “very close to over.”

Higher oil prices (and the equity strength) pushed bond yields up by about 3–4 basis points across the curve. The dollar traded sideways, while gold limped lower but stayed comfortably above $4,800.

Bitcoin also traded sideways, holding $74,000 as support for now.

In the end, equities seemed to decouple from oil, and bonds underperformed. It felt more like a narrow, tech-driven move than a true broadening of the rally.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

After an early stumble, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to claw their way back above unchanged, as traders continued to hang onto the hope that some kind of deal between the U.S. and Iran might eventually emerge.

It wasn’t exactly conviction buying — more like cautious optimism refusing to die.

Technology stocks helped keep the broader market afloat. Software names led the way, with Oracle jumping 9% and Palantir adding 4%. Not every corner of the market played along, though.

Goldman Sachs was a clear laggard and weighed on the financials during the session.

The backdrop remains tense. President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after weekend peace talks between the U.S. and Iran ended without an agreement.

The blockade — covering all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports — went into effect Monday. U.S. Central Command emphasized that vessels traveling to non‑Iranian ports would not be blocked, but the message was loud and clear.

Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad without a deal, citing Iran’s refusal to halt its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Beyond that, the two sides appear far apart on several fronts, with Iran demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, and the release of frozen assets.

In short, traders were forced back to the drawing board, reassessing what stocks are really worth now that it’s becoming clear this Middle East conflict won’t be resolved anytime soon.

Then came the pivot. Equities caught a bid after Trump said Iran wants to “work a deal.” That single comment was enough to push the major indexes to session highs and quickly revive bullish sentiment.

Weak existing home sales data was brushed aside as markets chose to focus on geopolitics instead.

By the close, WTI crude had round‑tripped the day, slipping back to unchanged after spiking nearly 9% at the Sunday night open and falling back below $100.

Bond yields jumped and then faded, ending lower on the day. The dollar followed suit, which helped gold recover from an ugly open to finish near unchanged. Bitcoin stayed firm, rallying back toward its key resistance level around $73,000.

For now, traders seem to agree with the prevailing mindset: if you liked these assets before the conflict, you might like them even more now.

The big question is — how long can optimism hold when the headlines keep getting heavier?

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