[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks came out of the gate on the wrong foot as higher oil prices and continued weakness in chip stocks kept sellers in control.
The Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged briefly changed the mood, sparking a relief rally that had traders feeling a little better about life.
That optimism didn’t last long.
News of Iran’s surprise missile attack in Jordan quickly shifted the focus back to geopolitics. Oil and bond yields jumped, stocks headed south, and the market’s post-Fed celebration ended about as quickly as a free lunch on Wall Street.
Meanwhile, the dollar took traders on a roller-coaster ride, first climbing and then sliding hard, helping lift gold and giving Bitcoin a boost as it held above the $64,000 level.
In the end, it was one of those days that left traders scratching their heads and wondering why stocks rallied on the Fed news in the first place.
Was today’s real story the Fed, or was it a reminder that geopolitics can still hijack the market at a moment’s notice?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
After an ugly start, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to claw their way back above breakeven after the Fed stood pat on rates, taking some of the morning’s fear out of the market.
Unfortunately, the relief rally had all the staying power of a cheap umbrella in a windstorm, and the major indexes quickly sank back into the red.
The bright spot was metals, which did the heavy lifting and helped deliver a modestly positive finish.
Our TTIs weren’t immune to the pullback, but they showed some impressive resilience, holding up noticeably better than the broader indexes.
This is how we closed 07/29/2026:
Domestic TTI: +8.58% above its M/A (prior close +9.56%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +5.91% above its M/A (prior close +6.46%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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