[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks spent most of the day on the defensive as higher oil prices kept inflation worries front and center.
Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions pushed Brent crude back above $100 a barrel, and that was enough to keep traders reaching for the aspirin rather than the buy button.
Adding to the pressure, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed above 4.8%, giving stocks another headwind before the major indexes closed lower once again.
Meanwhile, the dollar and Bitcoin essentially ended where they started after a volatile session, while gold quietly stole a little of the spotlight by reclaiming $4,400 and flashing a bullish golden cross signal.
Now the market’s attention shifts squarely to inflation data, with PPI tomorrow and CPI on Friday.
After today’s action, it’s safe to say traders will be reading those reports more carefully than the fine print on a mortgage application.
Will inflation confirm the market’s fears, or hand investors a much-needed reason to breathe easier?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Mr. Market had a familiar feel today. The bears were in control right from the opening bell, keeping pressure on the major indexes and sending stocks to another down day.
Fortunately, the metals complex provided a little balance to the story, with silver stealing the spotlight and copper once again reminding investors why it’s often called the market’s economic crystal ball.
Our TTIs weren’t immune to the selling and followed equities lower, with the domestic model continuing to show the most weakness.
For now, it’s a market where hard assets are doing more of the heavy lifting while stocks are searching for firmer footing. As always, the market keeps us humble… just in case anyone was starting to feel a little too smart.
This is how we closed 09/09/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.30% above its M/A (prior close +6.33%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.52% above its M/A (prior close +6.99%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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