ETF Tracker Newsletter For January 30, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

WARSH PICK CALMS FED FEARS – STOCKS DIP, METALS PULL BACK 

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes headed lower pretty much all day, with tech shares staying in a funk.

Traders were largely okay with President Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve—his experience as a former Fed governor and occasional hawkish stance on inflation eased some worries about Fed independence.

Markets see him as someone who might push for lower rates short-term (what Trump wants) but won’t just rubber-stamp every White House wish, preserving some credibility for policy.

That said, stocks couldn’t shake the weakness. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq are still on track for a positive January—each up more than 1% for the month so far.

Gold spot prices fell 16% from yesterday’s highs, silver plunged 39%, signaling comfort with Warsh’s more hawkish lean. Even after today’s sell-off, gold and silver remain way higher for the month (+12% and +14%) and for the past year (+72% and +164%).

Bond yields ticked higher after hotter-than-expected December core producer price index data (up 0.7% vs. the expected 0.3%). Apple inched lower despite beating Q1 earnings and revenue (helped by strong iPhone sales), while SanDisk popped 22% on upbeat guidance.

Equity markets were volatile this week but finished January higher overall—small caps led, Nasdaq lagged, and the Mag 7 basket ended the month in the red.

The dollar got dumped for the third straight month, while Bitcoin rode its usual rollercoaster—tanked early but erased the losses by the close.

Risk and volatility are always around the corner. Right now, the big disconnect between stocks at record highs and the huge gap to rate-cut expectations could pull the punchbowl away if the Fed stays cautious.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/29/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, January 29, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.17% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Tech Selloff Hits Hard – Silver Swings Wild, Gold Holds 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened sharply lower, dragged down hard by Microsoft after its latest earnings miss.

The stock tanked 11%—its worst day since March 2020—on slower cloud growth and soft margin guidance for the next quarter.

That sparked fresh worries that AI might disrupt even Microsoft’s core business model, so software names got hit too: ServiceNow dropped 12% (even after beating estimates), Oracle fell 5%, and Salesforce slid 8%. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the pain early on.

The pressure’s now squarely on Apple (reporting after the bell today). On a brighter note, Meta jumped 7% after a stronger-than-expected Q1 sales outlook.

By the close, most of the red sea had been wiped out—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished lower but well off their session lows. Breadth actually looked healthy: more stocks up than down, even with mega-tech getting battered early. The Mag 7 bounced back to a green close for the day.

Copper had a wild ride but recovered strongly, gaining over 5% (CPER). Gold (GLD) eked out a modest gain after some chop, silver swung from a high of $122 down to $107 before nearly clawing back to flat, and Bitcoin wasn’t so lucky—dipping to the $84K level and staying there.

Bond yields slipped, the dollar pumped and dumped to end unchanged. Crypto and risk assets like BTC tend to move with liquidity—when it’s plentiful, they rally; when it tightens (like now, with the yen carry trade unwinding), they pull back.

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Fed Holds Steady – Stocks Flat, Silver & Gold Surge

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 finally touched 7,000 for the first time intraday—nice milestone! —but the broader rally ran out of steam by the close.

Chip stocks gave us an early boost after some upbeat earnings: Seagate soared more than 17% on strong AI data storage demand, and ASML reported record orders with solid 2026 guidance. That juiced the sector for a while, but the gains mostly faded by the end.

Traders were also watching the dollar after its big drop Tuesday (worst day since last April), though it clawed back a bit today.

The macro picture still looks decent—growth holding up, labor market soft but stable, inflation above the Fed’s target—so there wasn’t much case for an immediate rate cut.

The Fed held steady as expected, and Chair Powell’s comments didn’t drop any big surprises, so markets basically shrugged.

In the end, the major indexes closed near flat, with only the Nasdaq squeaking out a tiny gain. Bond yields were all over the place, rate-cut expectations dipped, but the dollar showed some life.

The real action?

Precious metals crushed it again—gold ETF and silver ETF both surged over 3.8%, gold topped $5,300, and silver chopped around but closed near $115. Bitcoin followed suit and climbed back above $90K.

After the Fed passed on a cut and stocks faded but metals keep holding strong, does this feel like a classic “no news is bad news” reaction… or a healthy reminder that hard assets are still doing the heavy lifting in this environment?

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Fed Week Begins – Stocks Up, Gold & Silver Keep Shining

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped early, powered by solid gains in Big Tech, as traders positioned for a packed week of earnings reports and the Fed’s first policy meeting on Wednesday. The Dow, however, stumbled out of the gate and stayed under pressure.

Big Tech names led the charge: Apple climbed nearly 2%, Microsoft added 1.3%, and the whole sector got a boost from anticipation around upcoming results. More than 90 S&P 500 companies report this week, including Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla on Wednesday, and Apple on Thursday.

Health insurers were the big laggards—Humana tanked 18% and CVS Health dropped 10% after CMS proposed only a tiny 0.09% average net increase in Medicare Advantage payments for 2027. That was a gut punch for the sector.

The Fed meeting is the main event ahead—markets are widely expecting rates to stay steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range, but everyone’s hunting for clues on future cuts. Futures still price in about two quarter-point reductions by year-end 2026.

Late in the day, President Trump dropped some off-the-cuff remarks saying the dollar was “doing great” and he didn’t think it had weakened too much. That added a little extra pressure on the currency, helping precious metals push higher.

The S&P 500 tagged a new record high intraday but couldn’t quite break through 7,000 and faded into the close.

Bond yields were mixed, the dollar softened, but gold kept charging—making several runs at$5,100 before finally clearing it for a new high.

Silver was choppier but clawed back to recapture the $110 level late. Bitcoin did its usual dance, ending near $89K after testing higher.

Once again, the precious metals surge turned what could’ve been an average day into a really strong one for our portfolios.

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Stocks Rally, Silver Blasts To $117 – Metals Steal The Show Again

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened strong and kept the upward momentum rolling all session long, even as traders kept one eye on political headlines and braced for a busy week ahead (big earnings wave + the next Fed meeting).

Over the weekend, President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Ottawa strikes a trade deal with China. Canadian PM Mark Carney quickly shot back that they have “no intention” of pursuing one with Beijing.

The situation’s fluid, but most folks aren’t losing sleep over it actually happening—still, the constant tariff saber-rattling is slowly wearing on sentiment.

Washington chatter added to the noise too: growing outrage over federal immigration agents fatally shooting a U.S. citizen in Minnesota (second time this month) has people whispering about another potential government shutdown.

Wall Street’s main focus this week is earnings season kicking into high gear—more than 90 S&P 500 companies report, including Meta and Microsoft on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday. So far, the season’s been solid, with 76% beating expectations.

By the close, bond yields pulled back, the dollar broke down to its lowest since March 2022, and equities stayed in rally mode—except small caps, which lagged.

The Mag 7 found their groove again and outperformed the rest of the S&P 493 for the second day running.

Bitcoin bounced nicely today after some weekend selling, clawing back toward recent levels.

The real fireworks?

Precious metals once again. Silver exploded as high as $117 (+12% intraday) before pulling back to $107, while gold blasted past $5,000 and closed above it (up ~1.4% after the fade), giving our portfolios a nice boost.

Silver’s +65% month-to-date run to fresh records stands in stark contrast to heavy ETF and speculator selling—Bloomberg’s question is spot-on: who’s actually buying this latest leg higher, and how sustainable is it?

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