Futures and global markets indicated another session of losses, with the S&P 500 plunging as much as 5.5% before the selling abated and market direction suddenly reversed.
Comments from Trump, which turned out to be fake news, suggested a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except China, sparking bullish sentiment. However, the lack of confirmation sent prices plunging again, adding to the market chaos.
Approximately 50 nations reached out to start negotiations, with some planning retaliatory tariffs. The situation remains highly uncertain, and it appears that negotiations will be more prolonged than Wall Street traders would prefer.
This is a time of extreme uncertainty, making it difficult to determine a clear market direction. Our TTIs remain deeply in bear market territory, and it’s best to observe this turmoil from the sidelines.
In the end, it was another wild day in the markets driven by headlines, leaving traders confused about the market’s direction. The Dow led the decline, followed by the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq managed a small gain.
Dip buying in the S&P 500 was prevalent as the index hit bear market territory, and the most shorted stocks soared 14.5% from low to high within 30 minutes, marking a dramatic squeeze.
Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.
The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (115 vs. 49 current).
S&P 500 AND MAG7 STOCKS SEE MASSIVE LOSSES, NO SECTOR SPARED
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
The major indexes opened sharply lower again today, continuing yesterday’s decline and confirming our “Sell” signal for broadly diversified domestic equity ETFs.
China was the first country to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. goods, further supporting the view that a trade war is imminent, potentially sparking a global recession.
China’s commerce ministry announced a 34% levy on all U.S. products, matching the tariff on Chinese goods entering the U.S. Additionally, several companies were added to China’s “unreliable entities list,” escalating tensions further.
The tech sector was hit hard, with companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla suffering significant losses due to their large exposure to China. Apple, for instance, is down 10% for the week.
Despite dropping bond yields, with the 10-year sliding below 4%, the relentless selling continued. Global stocks faced significant declines, yet China remains the leader year-to-date, while Europe and the U.S. experienced severe losses.
Gold remains the biggest winner year-to-date compared to stocks, crude oil, and the dollar, as positive hard data supports Fed Chair Powell’s comments that “the economy remains on solid footing.” Despite his hawkish stance, rate-cut expectations surged, with the possibility of five cuts.
The Mag7 stocks were also hit hard, losing $1.4 trillion this week and $4.5 trillion in market cap from their highs.
The S&P 500 fared worse, losing $5.5 trillion in the last two days. There was no place to hide, as all sectors, even defensive ones, ended in the red.
Gold, while holding up fairly well, was sold today but managed to defend its $3,000 level successfully. Bitcoin closed higher today and ended the week unchanged, possibly in anticipation of upcoming liquidity changes.
Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: SELL— effective 4/4/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken below its long-term trend line (red) by -4.97% and has now moved into “Sell” mode as of 4/4/2025.
The link below shows all High Volume (HV) Domestic Equity ETFs. They are ranked by M-Index, which is my secret sauce for measuring momentum. Prices in all linked tables below are updated through 04/03/2025, unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication is indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%. Please note that distributions are not included in the current momentum numbers.
If the TTI is above the trend line, you can use the tables in the link below to pick your winners:
This is our global guide, the International Trend Tracking Index (green). It has now moved +0.24% above its long-term trend line (red) and is in “Buy” mode as indicated.
The list in the link below shows the High Volume (HV) International ETFs I track for you during a Buy cycle. They are also ranked by M-Index:
This is the mother of all lists, showing all ETFs I track and how they stack up against each other. The sorting order is by M-Index too. Momentum figures for all ETFs are not adjusted for dividends.
This is where you can find HV ETFs for specific countries or regions that I watch every week. Please note that the data in this table does not include adjustments due to distributions. Country funds can be wild beasts, so make sure you use a trailing stop loss (I use 10%) to protect yourself from nasty bites.
This is where you can diversify your portfolio by looking for different opportunities in various sectors of the market. The table of HV Sector ETFs in the following link covers a wide range of possibilities. The sorting order is by M-Index:
Here too, I recommend using a 10% trailing stop loss to limit your risk.
BOND & DIVIDEND ETFs: SELECTIVE BUY
If you like getting paid for holding ETFs, here’s a list of bond and dividend paying ETFs. But before you buy them, make sure you check their momentum figures first. Then you can visit your favorite financial web site to see their yield and other details.
Please note that the data in this table does not include adjustments due to distributions.
Please note that some of these funds try to beat the index they are tied to by a certain percentage. This can boost your returns, but it can also magnify your losses. So be careful and use a trailing sell stop (I suggest 10%) and be ready for some bumps along the way.
NEW SUBSCRIBER INFORMATION
To get a head start on more successful investing, please click on:
In case you missed it, you can download my latest e-book “How to beat the S&P 500…with the S&P 500,” here. If you are investing your 401k and must use mutual funds, I suggest you mainly stick with the S&P 500 as described in my book. Of course, you can always use the above tables to find sector or country ETFs that suit your taste and use the equivalent mutual funds as offered by your custodian.
Disclosure:
I must tell you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Also, they are not meant to be specific investment recommendations for you, they just show which ETFs from my universe are doing well right now.
Last night, the futures market experienced a pump-and-dump, reflecting the market’s reaction to Trump’s tariff policies. This morning, the sell-off continued, with major indexes and the broader market dropping sharply.
As a result, our domestic TTI entered “Sell” mode, and I liquidated our last domestic position in my advisory practice. We are now holding only a few selected sector ETFs.
The sell-off was broad, affecting most asset classes, including those considered “safe” havens. Many traders are highly leveraged, and when margin calls arrive, they liquidate any assets they own to meet requirements.
Trump’s tariffs were extensive but only covered about half of the tariffs imposed on the U.S. for decades. Despite not being fully reciprocal, traders and algorithms viewed them negatively due to the potential risks of a global trade war amid a slowing U.S. economy.
At the NY Stock Exchange, decliners outnumbered advancers by six to one. Shares of multinational companies like Nike (-15%) and Apple (-9%) were hit hardest, while global stock markets slumped 3% overnight.
The S&P 500 suffered its biggest daily loss since June 2020, closing at its lowest point of the day. Small Caps fell to their lowest level since January 2024, and Mega Cap tech stocks dropped to their lowest level since September.
Banks were heavily impacted, the dollar fell below its 200-day moving average, and crude oil lost nearly 7%. Bitcoin gave back its recent gains, gold fluctuated but remained above $3,100. Despite a drop in bond yields, it wasn’t enough to support the markets.
With uncertainty about market direction prevailing, it’s wise to stay on the sidelines in the safety of money market funds until a new bull market can be identified.
The equity markets remained steady in early trading despite a weak opening, as the dollar and major global currencies stayed within tight ranges ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement at 4 pm today.
April 2nd has been declared “Liberation Day,” with reciprocal tariffs on countries imposing duties on U.S. goods taking immediate effect after the announcement. Traders are jittery due to the uncertainty surrounding additional selective barriers.
In the last hour of trading, after some volatility, sentiment turned bullish, leading to solid gains with the Nasdaq outperforming. Some traders viewed this as a potential dead cat bounce ahead of the tariff revelations.
A positive macro data surprise index provided support, with ADP job additions surging and factory orders nearing record highs. This challenged the widespread recession narrative, as “hard data” reached its strongest level since May 2024, while “soft data” fell to its weakest since September 2024, as noted by ZH.
This shift lowered rate-cut expectations and pushed bond yields up. The dollar dipped, gold advanced modestly, and Bitcoin surged above $87k, erasing last week’s losses.
