ETF Tracker StatSheet
You can view the latest version here.
RELIEF RALLY OR HEAD FAKE? BONDS STILL HOLD THE MARKET’S ATTENTION
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks managed a respectable rebound today after four straight losing sessions, helped by a pullback in oil prices. But if you were hoping for a dramatic change in the script, the bond market had other ideas.
The inflation report was largely in line with expectations, yet the bigger story was what happened afterward: investors quickly shifted from asking whether the Fed will hike rates to wondering how many more hikes it may ultimately need.
That concern showed up in higher bond yields, with the 2-year yield pushing to its highest level in over two years.
Meanwhile, oil took a breather after this week’s geopolitical-driven surge, gold couldn’t hang on to its early gains, and even Bitcoin was reminded that higher interest rates still matter, “digital gold” label or not.
So, despite today’s 1% relief rally, the real drivers remain the same: rising yields, elevated energy costs, resilient employment, and central banks that are still leaning hawkish.
In short, the market’s tug-of-war between bulls and bears is alive and well, and today’s bounce felt more like a timeout than a knockout punch.
The question now isn’t whether volatility sticks around, but which side finally gains enough conviction to win the next round: the bulls or the bears?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Today’s relief rally was a welcome sight after four straight down days, but let’s not mistake a stretch for a marathon.
Stocks bounced, metals chipped in a few gains, yet neither showed enough conviction to declare the all-clear.
Higher interest rates and firming oil prices were still the main characters in today’s story, and they continue to keep the market on its toes.
On the bright side, our TTIs improved, which keeps our equity outlook positive for now. The bulls are still in the game, but they haven’t exactly taken a victory lap yet.
This is how we closed 09/11/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.10% above its M/A (prior close +4.58%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +5.75% above its M/A (prior close +5.69%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli