[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks took another hit today, and the culprit wasn’t hard to find. Crude oil surged back above $100 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran conflict dragged into its seventh month, reigniting inflation worries and putting pressure on just about every risk asset.
The market largely shrugged off a benign PPI report. While wholesale inflation came in as expected, traders were far more focused on the combination of soaring oil prices and a 10-year Treasury yield pushing toward 5%, a level we haven’t seen in quite some time.
That’s not exactly the recipe equity bulls were hoping for heading into tomorrow’s CPI report.
The bigger issue is that higher energy costs have a way of working their way through the economy, and the market is beginning to wonder whether the Fed may need to keep its foot closer to the brake than previously thought. Futures are now assigning meaningful odds to another rate hike next week.
In the meantime, there was nowhere to hide. Gold lost its luster, bitcoin fell back below $77,000, and stocks absorbed another broad-based selloff.
It was one of those days when “black gold” acted less like a commodity and more like a wrecking ball.
Tomorrow’s CPI report now takes center stage. Could a cooler-than-expected inflation reading give investors something to cheer about and help salvage the week, or has the market become too focused on oil and rising yields to care?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Oil prices and bond yields continued their climb today, and the bears wasted no time putting that combination to work, keeping the major indexes in the red from start to finish.
Unlike yesterday, even the usual inflation hedges couldn’t find much traction. Metals lost their footing, and bitcoin discovered that “digital gold” still has the occasional off day.
Our TTIs drifted lower as well, but let’s keep it in perspective. They remain comfortably above their trend lines, which means the longer-term picture is still intact, even if today’s market felt a little like running into a headwind on a downhill ride.
This is how we closed 09/10/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.58% above its M/A (prior close +5.30%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +5.69% above its M/A (prior close +6.52%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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