[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Today’s market action continued to highlight the ongoing rotation beneath the surface.
The Dow posted a solid gain, while the Nasdaq remained under pressure as semiconductor stocks struggled again, leaving the tech-heavy index about 10% below its intraday peak.
The real story is that investors are still shifting money from high-flying technology names into more traditional sectors. That trend has been building for weeks and remained firmly intact today.
Looking ahead, the spotlight now turns to earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple, along with Wednesday’s Fed decision.
I expect rates to remain unchanged, but the market will be listening closely for clues about what comes next.
By the close, reports of progress toward easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz helped improve sentiment, allowing the Nasdaq to recover much of its earlier loss while the Dow finished strongly. Meanwhile, bond yields and the dollar fell, while gold and Bitcoin also moved lower.
With the Fed and Big Tech both taking center stage this week, will they reignite the technology trade, or will this market’s changing leadership continue?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The Dow was the lone standout among the major indexes, brushing aside the constant stream of market-moving headlines to notch a respectable 1% gain.
The Nasdaq wasn’t as fortunate and suffered another setback.
Metals joined the tech sector on the downside, but our TTIs marched to a different beat.
Both held up well against the selling pressure, with the Domestic TTI stealing the show by climbing an impressive 1%.
This is how we closed 07/28/2026:
Domestic TTI: +9.56% above its M/A (prior close +8.30%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.46% above its M/A (prior close +6.40%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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