[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
It looked like the market served up a classic reminder that investors have a short memory when there’s good news on the table.
After yesterday’s Fed-induced selloff, stocks came roaring back, led by Microsoft, whose Azure-fueled earnings report had investors reaching for a second helping. Semiconductor stocks happily joined the feast, turning AI optimism back into the market’s favorite flavor.
Not everyone got an invitation. Meta stumbled after a disappointing outlook and shrinking free cash flow, highlighting that Wall Street still expects AI spending to come with a clear path to profits.
As one trader joked, there seems to be a difference between “investing in the future” and “sending the future an unlimited budget.”
Elsewhere, inflation remained sticky, economic growth cooled a bit, and yet lower oil prices and falling bond yields gave stocks all the encouragement they needed.
The dollar weakened, gold reclaimed the $4,100 level, and bitcoin tagged along with the tech rally by climbing back above $65,000.
With OPEC+ expected to discuss another production increase on Sunday, the next big question is whether more oil supply will finally translate into some relief at the gas pump, or will consumers need a little more patience?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
I’d say the bulls came to work with a full tank of confidence and never really handed over the keys. By the closing bell, the major indexes had all but erased yesterday’s stumble.
The rebound wasn’t limited to stocks either. Metals joined the party, and even bitcoin managed to catch a tailwind.
As for our TTIs, they took different paths today: the international TTI charged ahead, while the domestic TTI paused to catch its breath after recently leading the pack.
Sometimes even the MVP needs a break.
This is how we closed 07/30/2026:
Domestic TTI: +8.40% above its M/A (prior close +8.58%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.72% above its M/A (prior close +5.91%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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