Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 6/27/2011

Ulli Mutual Funds On The Cutline 2 Comments

Despite yesterday’s rebound, which faded towards the close and was accompanied by low volume, improvements around the cutline (trend line) were negligible. Last week’s featured widely held international funds, FDIVX, VGTSX and TRIGX, slipped further down the rankings and ended up somewhere below the -20 position.

The international Sell signal remains intact as our International TTI (Trend Tracking Index) has settled at -1.68% below its trend line as of yesterday’s close. It confirms the continued weakness in that arena, while domestically we are still showing a little more strength with our Domestic TTI still hovering +2.27% above its respective trend line.

Take a look at this week’s report and notice the worsening DrawDown percentages in the DD% column, with many funds either already having triggered their trailing sell stops, or have come close to it:

[Click on table to enlarge, copy and print]

The theme remains the same in that downward momentum is not to be taken lightly. Domestically, the S&P 500 has again bounced off its 200-day moving average (1,263.47) for the time being, but it’s very likely that we will test that support level again.

I need to see more consistency and strength in these rebound efforts which, most of the time, look more like dead cat bounces; yesterday was no exception.

Stay alert, watch for more market weakness and be prepared to exit, should the need arise.

Quick reference to recent issues:

6/20/11 issue

6/13/11 issue

6/6/11 issue

5/30/11 issue

5/23/11 issue

5/16/11 issue

5/9/11 issue

5/2/11 issue

4/25/11 issue

4/18/11 issue

4/11/11 issue

Disclosure: No holdings

Contact Ulli

Comments 2

  1. Ulli: I am invested inside my IRA accounts with Charles Schwab into the following ETF Funds, one of which is “International” SCHF. Is this fund also a “sell”?

    Charles Schaefer

  2. Charles,

    Yes, if you use my international TTI (Trend Tracking Index) as a guide, SCHF would be a sell. However, with today’s rally, the international TTI has moved to within -0.67% of its trend line. To avoid a whipsaw signal, you might want use SCHF’s 7% trailing sell stop as a reference to exit.


Leave a Reply