ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, February 22, 2013

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/02/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-02212013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, February 22, 2013

US STOCKS RALLY ON GERMAN DATA, EARNINGS; EUROPE SURGES

US stocks fought back from the worst slump since November as a measure of German business confidence jumped to a 10-month high, eclipsing concerns that the US Federal Reserve will scale back its asset purchase program, as earnings from American International Group Inc and Hewlett-Packard Co topped street estimates.

Wall Street found early support after suffering its worst two-drop since early November after the IFO survey of German business executives showed sentiment in February jumped to its highest reading since April.

Hewlett-Packard was the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 Friday, vaulting 12 percent after the largest PC maker forecast second quarter earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations.

AIG Group rose 3.1 percent after fourth-quarter results beat analysts’ estimates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) zoomed 120 points to finish at 14,001, leaving it up 0.1 percent for the week.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 13 points to 1,516 with materials, financials and technology leading the gains. All the 10 business groups within the benchmark index ended higher for the day. SPX shed 0.3 percent for the week, its first weekly decline of the year.

Treasury prices rose for a third day, pushing yields on 10-year notes to near one-week low on Friday ahead of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s scheduled testimony before the Senate Banking Committee next week. Bernanke’s testimony will be important as the last FOMC minutes showed many Fed officials were worried about the risks linked to the $85 billion-a-month bond purchase program.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/21/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, February 21, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +2.54% as part of the post election rebound.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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S&P 500 Fights To Stay Above 1,500; US And European Equities Continue Their Slide

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities finished lower for a second straight day as a weak regional manufacturing report weighed on investor sentiment while concern mounted that the US Federal Reserve will scale back the pace of stimulus.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s index fell to minus 12.5 in February, the lowest since June, from minus 5.8 the month before. Readings below zero indicate contraction. The new-orders index fell to negative 7.8 from negative 4.3 in January as weakening new orders hit manufacturing in the area covering Delaware, southern New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Sales of existing home sales rose 0.4 percent in January, the National Association of Realtors reported. However, the number of homes for sale fell to the lowest level in more than 13 years, indicating a shrinking inventory, the Washington-based trade group said.

Initial jobless claims rose by 20,000 to 362,000 in the week ended Feb 16, a Labor Department report revealed.

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Stocks Hit A Slippery Slope After Fed Minutes

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks turned sharply lower Wednesday, falling from five-year highs after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed the central bank may scale back its bond buying program. In other words, the odds have increased that the spiked punch bowl will be watered down.

The Fed’s Open Market Committee had said the central bank would continue buying bonds while holding interest rates at near zero until the job market improves substantially. But minutes from the Jan 29-30 meeting today showed some policymakers were in favor of slowing the purchases sooner than previously thought.

Figures from the Commerce Department on housing came in mixed. The number of new homes breaking ground in January fell 8.5 percent from the month before, although starts for single-family homes ticked up 0.8 percent to an annual rate of 613,000.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 2/19/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The market direction over the past week was predominantly sideways, but yesterday’s upward swing pushed the S&P 500 to a gain of 0.79% since the last ETF model portfolio report was issued.

Ongoing merger activity (M&A) was the driver for this move as the theory spread that there was still value in the market despite the indexes closing in on their all-time highs. These new deals have helped support the risk appetite in that the slight dips we’ve seen were used as buying opportunities.

Still, with the automatic spending cuts effective March 1 looming large, it’s hard to explain what could drive the indexes to further gains. However, since we are in a centrally planned market environment, anything is possible; even if it does not make sense based on underlying economics.

Here’s the latest update for our Model ETF Portfolios:

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US Indexes Hit Fresh Five-Year Highs; European Stocks Rally As German Sentiment Improves

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks finished higher Tuesday, sending the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 to new five-year highs, buoyed by a rise in corporate deal making and an improvement in German investor sentiment.

OfficeMax Inc vaulted 21 percent while Office Depot Inc jumped 9.4 percent after the Wall Street Journal reported Monday (a market holiday) that the companies were in advanced merger talks and may announce a deal as early as this week. The latest news, coming close on the heels of last week’s acquisition of Heinz by Warren Buffet and US Airways’ merger with American Airlines parent AMR, shows the mountain of cash corporate America has piled up. They are now pressured into either pursuing deals, raising dividends, or buying back stocks, analysts observed.

On the Economic news front, an index of homebuilders slipped 1.2 percent in February from the more than six-year-high hit in the prior month. A report by the Washington-based National Association of Homebuilders showed the builder confidence index dropped to 46 from 47 in January.

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