One Man’s Opinion: Will Europe return to growth in 2013?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Latest data shows German business confidence has firmed up after hitting a 2-1/2 year low, indicating a bottoming out for the economy, although overall data across Europe has been flattish, says Laurent Fransolet, head of European interest-rate strategy at Barclays Plc.

The PMI survey results throughout Europe have been generally better than the actual hard data and even-though it’s too early to talk about Q4 numbers, Germany is likely return to growth in the first quarter of 2013. Other big economies like Italy and Spain are also expected to follow suit and return to growth in the second and third quarter, respectively, Laurent added.

Does this mean we will witness more convergence of growth moving forward?

Unfortunately, there has been some convergence to the bottom already, Laurent noted. There has also been some convergence on other parameters such as current account (deficits), unit labor costs and other bigger imbalances that sowed the seeds of the current crisis a few years ago.

Read More

New ETFs On The Block: Barclays Shiller CAPE ETN

Ulli ETF News Contact

Barclays Bank has launched a new exchange traded note, the Barclays ETN+ Shiller CAPE ETN (CAPE), a senior unsecured debt security that tracks the Shiller Barclays CAPE US Core Sector Index.

The index incorporates the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio or CAPE methodology and provides notional long exposure to four comparatively undervalued US equity sectors that have exhibited strong price momentum over the past 12 months. Launched on October 5, the benchmark is a brand new one with nine S&P Select Sector Indexes constituting it as technology and telecommunications sectors have been combined.

Developed originally by Yale professors Robert Shiller and John Campbell, the CAPE ratio seeks to find the best times to buy or sell stocks based on their price relative to historic earnings.

The CAPE ratio is calculated by dividing the price of a share by its inflation adjusted average earnings for the past 10 years, thus offsetting the earnings volatility of conventional price-earnings ratio. The ratio is used to determine whether stocks are over or under valued relative to fixed-income products.

Read More

11-23-2012

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 23, 2012

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11212012/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, November 23, 2012

US STOCKS REBOUND ON STRONG DATA; TREASURIES FALL AS GREECE DEBT-SWAP ADVANCES

US stocks surged more than 1 percent Friday to log their biggest weekly rally since June after President Obama expressed confidence on a budget deal with the Congress and positive data from Germany and China buoyed optimism of a global recovery.

Global economic news lifted the mood on the Wall Street in the absence of US economic data on Black Friday with Germany’s Ifo business confidence index rising unexpectedly to 101.4 in November from 100 in October. The gain comes after six straight monthly declines and shows the German economy is holding up in the face of European crisis, the Ifo Institute said.

In Asia, the HSBC purchasing managers index showed the first expansion in China’s manufacturing sector in 13 months in November, indicating growth may finally pick up in the fourth quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) zoomed 173 points to end at 13,010, up 3.4 percent for the week. All the 30 components in the blue-chip index rose for the day with technology stocks pacing the gains in its best week since June 8.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) jumped 18 points to 1409, its first finish above 1,400 since November 6 with technology and telecommunications gaining the most and utilities faring the worst among its 10 business groups. The index has 3.62 percent for the week, its biggest percentage gain since June 8.

Treasury 10-year yields rose, pushing prices down to near two-week lows as safe haven demands eased despite news of unsuccessful budget talks between European Union leaders in Brussels. The 27-member European Council hopes a consensus on the 2014-2020 budget could be reached in the coming weeks.

The US dollar weakened against its major rivals Friday as risk sentiment improved.

Meanwhile, taking a cue from the Wall Street, European stocks rallied Friday after German Ifo data calmed nerves Europe’s powerhouse is losing momentum. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index gained for the fifth straight day posting its biggest weekly gain in almost a year.

The DAX 30 index jumped 0.9 percent in Frankfurt, finishing the week higher by 5.2 percent. Bayer AG climbed 1.6 percent after Nomura revised its target price to EUR 78 from EUR 72.

The CAC 40 index rose 0.9 percent in Paris, lifted by drug-maker Sanofi SA and oil major Total SA. The French equity index is up 5.6 percent for the week.

The FTSE 100 index rose 0.5 percent in London with GlaxoSmithKline Plc and BP Plc gaining 0.75 percent and 1.01 percent, respectively. The London benchmark added 3.8 percent for the week.

In the ETF space, Europe-linked fund surged as European equity averages rallied. The iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund (EWG) vaulted 2.98 percent after German business confidence index jumped unexpectedly in November.

The iShares MSCI France Index Fund (EWQ) also surged, adding 2.64 percent for the day while the iShares MSCI Italy Index Fund (EWI) climbed 2.77 percent.

While euphoria returned to Wall Street this week, it was based on extreme low volume and a gigantic short squeeze as Zero Hedge explains here.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) rebounded after almost touching their trend lines (and breaking through them) as the markets headed higher. This may have been just a rally from an extremely oversold condition as all of the issues that caused the recent sell off are still with us and none of them have been remotely resolved.

Next week, volume should increase, and we will find out if there is more starch in this market rebound or if we are heading back the other way.

For the week, the TTIs ended as follows:

Domestic TTI: +1.53% (last week +0.15%)

International TTI: +3.93% (last week +0.77%)

We will continue to face extreme uncertainty and volatility for the for the remainder of this year, so if you have been stopped out of any equity holdings, accept it as this is the time for capital preservation since many triggers can pull the indexes towards bear market territory in  a hurry.

Some readers have emailed me saying that they have exited all equity positions and are waiting to see how the fiscal cliff, the debt ceiling debacle and the never ending European debt crisis will play out before re-entering the market. Not a bad way to go. While you might miss the sudden low volume rebounds that we’ve seen this week, you will, however, sleep soundly at night.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

Disclosure: No holdings in ETFs discussed above

————————————————————-

READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Paul:

Q: Ulli: The overall stock market is down nearly 7% to 8% from its highs last month. Surely that should have triggered sells?

Wondering where you are with your call on this?

A: Paul: We came close as I mentioned in Wednesday’s blog post as our TTI was positioned at +0.01% above its  long term trend line, and it slipped barely below it by -0.10% as I wrote on Thursday.

While the overall markets have come down hard, it did not affect our most conservative equity holding in DVY. However, we have close to its trailing sell stop and its own respective trend line has been broken. So, unless there is a big rally emerging on Friday, we’ll be out of DVY.

Be sure to tune into my blog when you have time, since I write about it daily.

———————————————————-

WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

———————————————————

Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 23, 2012

Ulli ETF Tracker, Uncategorized Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11212012/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, November 23, 2012

US STOCKS REBOUND ON STRONG DATA; TREASURIES FALL AS GREECE DEBT-SWAP ADVANCES

US stocks surged more than 1 percent Friday to log their biggest weekly rally since June after President Obama expressed confidence on a budget deal with the Congress and positive data from Germany and China buoyed optimism of a global recovery.

Global economic news lifted the mood on the Wall Street in the absence of US economic data on Black Friday with Germany’s Ifo business confidence index rising unexpectedly to 101.4 in November from 100 in October. The gain comes after six straight monthly declines and shows the German economy is holding up in the face of European crisis, the Ifo Institute said.

In Asia, the HSBC purchasing managers index showed the first expansion in China’s manufacturing sector in 13 months in November, indicating growth may finally pick up in the fourth quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) zoomed 173 points to end at 13,010, up 3.4 percent for the week. All the 30 components in the blue-chip index rose for the day with technology stocks pacing the gains in its best week since June 8.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) jumped 18 points to 1409, its first finish above 1,400 since November 6 with technology and telecommunications gaining the most and utilities faring the worst among its 10 business groups. The index has 3.62 percent for the week, its biggest percentage gain since June 8.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/21/2012

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Wednesday, November 21, 2012

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +0.97% after having dipped slightly below it.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

Read More

Equities Inch Higher On Economy, Mideast; Europe Edges Up While Greece Lingers

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities managed to eke out modest gains with major averages hitting a near two-week high after a ceasefire deal was announced between Israel and Hamas in Egypt, propelling the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite into the expansionary territory for the fourth straight session.

In the US, weekly jobless claims dropped to 410,000, a Labor Department report showed, beating forecasts as fewer Americans filed first-time applications for unemployment benefits last week despite the severe impact of Superstorm Sandy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) moved up by 48 points while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) added 3 points with energy gaining the most and utilities the only sector to lose among its 10 business groups.

After finding support early on, Treasury yields edged higher, pushing prices down for the third straight day as positive US economic data offset renewed worries over Europe’s ability to solve the protracted debt crisis.

Read More