7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 11/20/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The major indexes got an assist this week, after sliding lower into last Friday’ close, in the form of renewed hope that Washington’s finest will come together and attack the fiscal cliff crises with some form of compromise. Nothing was really resolved, but an oversold market in dire need of a bone took the faintest hint that some form of cooperation was possible and rallied sharply.

Whether that was just a dead cat bounce remains to be seen, but the S&P 500 managed to climb almost 1% since last week’s ETF Model Portfolio report. More clarity may not come until next Monday when Wall Street will be fully staffed and back from the Thanksgiving holiday.

Here’s the latest update to our ETF Model Portfolios:

Read More

US Rally Fizzles As HP Plunge Offset Housing Gains; Europe Buoyed By Mideast Hope

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Capping a choppy trading session, US stocks finished little changed Tuesday after an early rally triggered by an increase in housing starts in October was offset by a sharp sell-off in Hewlett-Packard shares.

The looming budget negotiations on tax hikes and spending cuts continued to weigh on investors after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke urged lawmakers in Washington to act quickly on the so-called fiscal cliff because the “stakes are high.” The central banker reiterated his assertion that the Fed doesn’t have the necessary tools to offset the potential harm and an agreement to reduce long-term US deficits may remove an obstacle to economic growth.

The Fed’s policies have helped temper the headwinds holding back the economic recovery, though it’s too early to assess the full impact of the Fed’s mortgage-bonds purchase program started in September to stimulate the housing market, he added. Analysts were, however, expecting confirmation that the central bank would extend its concurrent long-term Treasury bonds purchase program, known as Operation Twist, after it ends next month.

Read More

Fiscal Cliff Hope Fest Pushes Indexes Higher, But On Very Low Volume; Europe Surges

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks surged Monday to log their biggest single-session gain in months on positive housing data and increasing investor confidence that a budget deal would be reached in Washington. Mind you that a deal is pure hope at this time, and I have my doubts that total cooperation without any battle will actually be feasible.

Wall Street got an early boost after a National Association of Realtors report showed existing home sales grew at 2.1 percent to an annual rate of 4.79 million in October despite the impact of Hurricane Sandy.

Separately, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder’s sentiment advanced for a seventh straight month to 46, the highest since May 2006.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) jumped 208 points, posting its biggest gain since early September with all its 30 components rising and financial stocks gaining the most.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) surged 27 points with consumer sectors gaining the most and all the 10 business sectors but utility closing higher.

Read More

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/16/2012

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 118 (last week 214) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 32 ETFs (last week 54) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 217 (last week 435) above the line and 645 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 11/18/2012

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 11/18/2012.

More market pain became apparent this week, as the S&P 500 dropped some 1.5% over the past 5 trading days. It could have been a lot worse on Friday, but new hope was given to Wall Street as the Fiscal-cliff talks were considered to be ‘constructive.’ That was enough to pull the indexes out of another deep slump closing green for a change, a color which we have not seen all month when looking at closing prices of the averages.

Of course, that thin hope may disappear in no time when real hard decisions have to be made. I consider these opening meetings as nothing more than after election courtesy. Let’s see how this will play out once it becomes clear that the word ‘compromise’ has different interpretations across party lines.

Over past week, we covered the following:

Read More

One Man’s Opinion: Are Worries About The Fiscal Cliff Over-hyped?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

 

The US economy grew by 2.3 percent in the second quarter, while the third quarter growth rate has been about three percent, which means average annual growth will be about 2.6 percent in 2012, says James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management.

There are so many more parts which are working than they were a year ago. For example, housing has improved significantly over the past 12 months, home prices are on a growth trajectory, bank lending was not existent a year ago but now rising, consumer confidence has hit a five year high, the unemployment rate is coming down, labor force is rising, the debt burdens are at record lows almost. So, a number of things are in place that allows the growth rate to move a little faster, James observed.

Secondly, the economy is still stimulating. There will be some fiscal tightening, but money supply has been growing rapidly, mortgage rates are at record lows, gas prices have been falling and inflation rate has been on the decline – from four percent a year ago to about two today. These are stimulating events that should help the economy in the next year, he noted.

Thirdly, and most importantly, China’s economy is showing signs of bottoming out. The Chinese economy is likely to reaccelerate in 2013 and if the emerging markets start recovering, manufacturing in the US, Germany and elsewhere will also pick up, James added.

Read More