Only Tech’s Winning: 400+ S&P Stocks In The Red

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The week kicked off with the Nasdaq as the only major index in the green, riding the AI wave hard after a flurry of big deals.

Amazon, a Mag 7 heavyweight, jumped 4% on news of a $38 billion partnership with OpenAI—and get this, it’ll gobble up hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs.

That lit a fire under chip stocks too: Iren (a data center player) soared 19% after locking in a $9.7 billion multiyear deal to supply Microsoft with Nvidia’s next-gen GB300 GPUs. Micron led the pack with a 4% pop, Nvidia added 2%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 1%.

But outside tech? Crickets. Over 400 S&P 500 stocks closed lower—classic weak breadth, even though the index still squeaked out a gain.

I think this split personality is the real story: AI keeps lifting the market, but most stocks are struggling. We’re now 80%+ through Q3 earnings, with over 80% beating estimates—solid, but the love’s all going to the usual suspects. This week, Palantir and AMD drop their numbers, so expect more AI drama.

In the end, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed green, while the Dow and small caps stumbled. The most-shorted stocks had their worst day in two weeks—ouch.

Bond yields ticked up as December rate-cut odds faded, the dollar kept flexing, gold dipped overnight but bounced back above $4,000, and bitcoin slid toward $107K.

November’s historically the S&P’s best month—up 1.8% on average. Will the AI train keep rolling, or will weak breadth finally matter?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/31/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (290 vs. 275 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 31, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

OCTOBER SURPRISE: STOCKS RALLY AMID TRADE TRUCE AND TECH REBOUND

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked off this session with a bang, especially the Nasdaq, thanks to some impressive earnings from Amazon. The tech giant’s shares jumped 10% after it reported a 20% revenue boost in its cloud division—well above Wall Street’s expectations.

Netflix also made headlines, climbing 3% after announcing a 10-for-1 stock split, which tends to attract more retail investors.

This rally came after a rough Thursday, when major tech names like Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia dragged the market down. Meta suffered its worst single-day drop in three years, as investors grew uneasy about ballooning AI-related expenses.

On the geopolitical front, a bit of relief: Presidents Trump and Xi agreed to a one-year trade truce during their meeting in South Korea, easing fears of a full-blown trade war.

Despite some weak macro data earlier in the month, October wrapped up on a surprisingly strong note.

The S&P 500 rose 2.3%, and the Dow notched its sixth straight monthly gain—a streak we haven’t seen since 2018. Most of the strength came from tech, with the “Magnificent Seven” outperforming the broader market.

Bond yields were all over the place but ended lower, as expectations for a December rate cut faded. The dollar posted only its second monthly gain this year, while gold and silver both rallied—up 3.6% and 3.9%, respectively.

Bitcoin hit a record high early in the month but then drifted sideways, holding steady around the $110k mark.

So, despite a month light on economic data, markets managed to dodge the usual October volatility and closed out in the green.

The big question now is: Can this momentum carry us through the strongest seasonal stretch of the year—or did we just burn through the good vibes too early?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/30/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 30, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.93% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Big Tech Tumbles, Metals Shine

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks slipped early on as tech earnings took center stage, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both retreating from recent highs.

Alphabet provided a bright spot by rallying about 5% on better-than-expected results, but Meta Platforms and Microsoft tumbled roughly 12% and 2%, respectively, after their quarterly reports triggered investor worries over rising spending forecasts and soft profit figures.

The rotation out of mega cap tech—especially artificial intelligence leaders like Nvidia—meant under-the-radar sectors and the broader market held up better.

All eyes were also on Washington and Beijing after President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping wrapped up a meeting that included a new deal: the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on Chinese fentanyl to 10%, with pledged action from China to curb shipments and boost agricultural buys, plus a one-year delay to rare earth export curbs.

Despite the hoped-for trade progress, hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about December rate cuts kept investors on edge.

Powell made it clear that another reduction is “far from a foregone conclusion,” sending bond yields and the dollar higher, while Bitcoin and most major asset classes lost ground except for gold and silver, which managed to notch solid gains of 1.96% and 2.59% respectively.

The day proved a wild ride, with our portfolios rescued by precious metals as tech giants disappointed.

Will coming earnings help shake off the Fed’s tough stance and spark a new rally, or is a bumpy stretch ahead as trepidation grows going into the year-end?

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Powell Pulls The Rug: Late-Day Selloff Follows Dovish Hopes

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks took off in early trading today, hitting record highs as traders cheered the Feds widely anticipated rate cut and yet another tech sector rally.

Nvidia led the pack, soaring over 4% and making Wall Street history by becoming the world’s first $5 trillion company, fueled by relentless demand for AI chips. AMD and Micron piggybacked on the momentum, each logging solid gains as well.

The S&P 500 briefly topped 6,900 for the first time ever, underscoring just how much optimism is baked in this week.

Traders were riding high early on, expecting a dovish follow-through from Fed Chair Powell after the central bank delivered a telegraphed quarter-point rate cut and ended quantitative tightening as predicted.

But Powell threw a curve ball not long after, warning that another cut in December was “far from certain.” That took some wind out of the market’s sails, instantly flipping much of the green to red.

Rate-cut odds for December tumbled from over 95% to near 65%, with the selloff hitting just about every asset class except the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Bond yields popped alongside the dollar, gold gave back early gains, but silver bucked the downtrend and closed higher. Bitcoin stumbled. Meanwhile, the most-shorted stocks extended their losing streak, but it was Nvidia’s historic run that really stole headlines.

After a rollercoaster session like today’s, will the market find its footing on clearer economic data or does the volatility stick around as 2025 winds down?

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