- Moving the market
The week kicked off with the Nasdaq as the only major index in the green, riding the AI wave hard after a flurry of big deals.
Amazon, a Mag 7 heavyweight, jumped 4% on news of a $38 billion partnership with OpenAI—and get this, it’ll gobble up hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs.
That lit a fire under chip stocks too: Iren (a data center player) soared 19% after locking in a $9.7 billion multiyear deal to supply Microsoft with Nvidia’s next-gen GB300 GPUs. Micron led the pack with a 4% pop, Nvidia added 2%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 1%.
But outside tech? Crickets. Over 400 S&P 500 stocks closed lower—classic weak breadth, even though the index still squeaked out a gain.
I think this split personality is the real story: AI keeps lifting the market, but most stocks are struggling. We’re now 80%+ through Q3 earnings, with over 80% beating estimates—solid, but the love’s all going to the usual suspects. This week, Palantir and AMD drop their numbers, so expect more AI drama.
In the end, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed green, while the Dow and small caps stumbled. The most-shorted stocks had their worst day in two weeks—ouch.
Bond yields ticked up as December rate-cut odds faded, the dollar kept flexing, gold dipped overnight but bounced back above $4,000, and bitcoin slid toward $107K.
November’s historically the S&P’s best month—up 1.8% on average. Will the AI train keep rolling, or will weak breadth finally matter?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
After a slow start, the S&P 500 joined the Nasdaq for a green close today, while the Dow couldn’t find its footing and finished in the red.
The story hasn’t changed much lately—all the action was in the tech sector, with big names like Amazon and Nvidia driving advances, while the rest of the market just tagged along.
As a result, our TTIs trod water and backed off moderately from recent highs, suggesting broader participation is still lacking.
This is how we closed 11/03/2025:
Domestic TTI: +4.77% above its M/A (prior close +5.02%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +10.31% above its M/A (prior close +10.45%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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