Tech Titans Lift Indexes As Breadth Falters

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks reached fresh highs Tuesday, but under the surface it was clear this was a tech-powered move—with most of the broad market sitting out the rally.

Strong earnings from big names grabbed attention: United Parcel Service jumped 7% and Wayfair soared 20% on their upbeat third-quarter results, while PayPal rallied 11% after also topping expectations.

Earnings season is proving robust so far; about one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported, and 83% are beating estimates.

The week’s focus is squarely on the “Magnificent Seven,” with Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft set to report in coming days—together these giants make up about a quarter of the S&P 500’s value, underscoring their outsized influence on the indexes.

Amazon stole some headlines with news of its largest round of layoffs ever, a move that fits the broader tech-industry trend of cost-cutting in 2025.

The Fed also kicked off its latest meeting, widely expected to deliver a second rate cut this year, with traders hoping Chair Jerome Powell will tee up another cut in December as labor market concerns linger.

Despite the positive action in the major averages, market breadth disappointed—350 S&P 500 stocks closed lower, and gains were concentrated entirely among the big technology names.

Bond yields continued to ease, the dollar fell, gold moderated, while silver found its footing and Bitcoin remained directionless.

If the Fed delivers another rate cut Wednesday, will that finally jolt bitcoin out of its sideways grind—or keep the Mag 7 doing the heavy lifting for the rally?

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Trade Deal Hopes Vault Markets To Record Highs

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks kicked off the week with a bang, hitting new record highs after U.S. and Chinese officials announced a breakthrough in trade talks over the weekend.

The early rally never fizzled, with all three major indexes closing at all-time highs and the Nasdaq leading the way, up nearly 2% thanks to a surge in chip stocks like Nvidia.

Driving optimism was news that President Trump and President Xi Jinping are expected to formalize a trade deal this week.

The proposed framework includes a one-year delay on China’s rare earth export curbs, a halt to Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs that were set to begin in November, resumed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, progress on the TikTok dispute, and possible cooperation on fentanyl.

While the finer points are still being worked out, the mood on Wall Street was positive, with traders betting the truce will hold and pave the way for lower trade barriers moving forward.

Meanwhile, traders are also eyeing Wednesday’s expected Fed rate cut, which could offer another tailwind for equities after last week’s tamer inflation data.

Gold cooled but held its ground near $4,000, silver dipped, and bitcoin staged a weekend rally past $115,000. Bond yields were choppy as the 10-year tested the 4% mark again, and the dollar edged lower.

With bulls firmly in control and a trade deal seemingly within reach, will these new highs stick—or are we in for another surprise as world leaders finalize their agreement?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/24/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (280 vs. 290 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 24, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

GOLD PAUSES, YIELDS STEADY AS STOCKS SOAR

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks hit new highs Friday after cooler-than-expected inflation data boosted hopes the Federal Reserve can stay on its rate-cutting path and keep the soft-landing story alive.

The September CPI report showed prices rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year—both slightly below forecasts—while core inflation, excluding food and energy, climbed just 0.2% for the month and 3% over the year.

The data gave traders confidence that the Fed’s easing cycle is on track, with market odds now fully pricing in rate cuts at both remaining meetings this year. Investors cheered the news, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh records and even pushing the Dow closer to another milestone.

Positive earnings surprises added to the good vibes. Intel surged 5% after reporting quarterly revenue above expectations, helped by strong AI chip demand. Procter & Gamble gained more than 1% after beating Wall Street’s forecasts for both earnings and revenue, saying consumer demand remains resilient despite higher costs.

Gold cooled off after a nine-week winning streak but held solidly above $4,100, and silver found support near the $48 mark. Bond yields were mixed, with the 10-year Treasury hovering around 4%, while Bitcoin extended its weekly rebound toward $111,000.

Looking ahead, seasonal trends suggest the market could stay strong through year-end—but will that historical pattern hold up this time, or will inflation and politics throw another twist into the mix?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/23/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 23, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.91% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Markets Rally As Optimism Builds Ahead Of CPI 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked this session off on a strong note, with major indexes steadily building gains through the session as investor optimism returned to center stage.

Coming off Wednesday’s selling, traders found renewed confidence in tech and industrial names, while upbeat talk around U.S.-China relations and better-than-expected home sales added fuel to the rebound.

Even with tomorrow’s CPI data looming, the mood was decidedly positive. The market shrugged off last night’s headlines and took Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on potential export curbs in stride, while confirmation that President Trump’s meeting with China’s Xi Jinping is officially on the calendar helped calm trade nerves.

Tesla shares stayed volatile, dipping after its mixed results but bouncing back by the close, while IBM’s 5% slide reminded investors how unforgiving earnings season can be.

Still, the overall tone was upbeat, with all major asset classes—equities, gold, and even Bitcoin—rising in unison.

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 4%, and gold climbed back above $4,100 as traders leaned into risk heading into Friday’s inflation print.

With markets choosing to see the glass half full for now, will tomorrow’s CPI keep the rally alive—or snap investors back to reality if inflation proves sticky?

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